Poker Discussion
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Full Tilt · PokerStars · Ultimate Bet · Players Only · Doyles Room
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A poster on the killphilpoker forum agreed with my assessment, put forth in my WPT Day 2 post, that continuation bets don’t work as well as they used to because more players are aware of the theory behind them and take counter-measures. His question was basically, now what? I'm sure there are lots of opinions on this. Perhaps some of you disagree with this contention. If you agree, how would you combat it? My answer was as follows:
In many cases it moves the critical point of the hand to the turn. One example is the play I describe about checking a bettable hand on the flop to plant suspicion in my opponents' mind and set up a play on the turn. Another thing I've found effective is to fire the second barrel on the turn if I’ve bluffed at a flop that missed my hand. A lot of good players will call a flop bet with nothing, or perhaps a longshot draw, especially if having position, to see what the opponent will do on the turn. If he shows weakness, they'll often bet and take it away from him. Continuing the bluff on the turn will often convince them that you have a real hand, and you’ll pick up a nice pot. To take it a stap further, against players who are looking to test you by calling on the flop, show them the weakness they’re looking for by checking a strong hand into them on the turn. They’ll often take the bait.
One point to be gleaned from this discussion is that the game is constantly evolving. The ready availability of quality information from TV, books, magazines and forums such as this has brought to light many of the advanced plays that were previously unknown to most players. There is a learning curve in poker. The best players recognize this, and alter their strategies to stay ahead of the curve.
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I agree with you here, and would like to add one more point about continuation bets. If people do catch on, just do it only when you have a good draw or a real hand, and you get paid off. If you only use the continuation bet half the time, people still think your just continuation betting. I really like the play myself, as it loosens people up to you.
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I totally agree, this is a subject that I haven't really seen broached but thanks for your insight on it Blair I think you are probably dead on
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I believe that the assessment is right on has well. I do have to question though that doesn't position and the Gap-Concept come into play as well for the reasons that Continuation Bets do not work has well as they use to?
- Joker
P.S. I think its awesome that you, Blair, are posting here and would hope you stick around because your posts are insightful, well thought out, and speaking for just myself can learn a lot from your posts.
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Great post Blair, agree 100%
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By
Gowon
on
10-23-2005 2:12 AM
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I do find this is a lacking part in both my cashgame and tournament
game, and the one part I really need to get better at. I feel
like I continuation bet in all the wrong times, then I second guess
myself and stop continuationbetting (both with good and bad hands, to
set up a play with good hands and with the hands I missed). Of
course, I don't check every time or bet every time but I'm having a
hard time finding a happy medium. I feel like it wasn't even a
year and a half ago when people wouldn't make moves against you when
continuationbetting unless they really had something, people are
smartening up now... damn them all!
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Blair, great topic
I'll shed some light on what I do at the table. I guess for sometime now I have employed the "delayed" continuation bet (never knew it had a name until i read harrington) as i found all too often, i would be called with anything making the standard continuation bet. Now with the delayed continuation bet here is what i assume most players are thinking "he raised preflop in early position and then checked to me on the flop, he must've been trying for the check-raise and now he's making a massage bet trying to get me to call, he must have a big hand" or another one I like to use against the right type of opponent is the standard continuation bet on the flop(out of position) then a check-raise on the turn (depending on the amount of the bet) as most good players will lay down the bluff attempt.
Now in position I play an entirely different style in that I always make a standard continuation bet regardless of my hand. if theres 3 limpers in front of me and I pop it up in late position with JJ (for example) I am making a continuation bet regardless of the flop. I think this is key, especially with position. So when the flop comes A102 you make a standard bet and play from there. Even if the flop comes J 3 5 rainbow, I still make a standard continuation bet. Often times I'll get called by TT-66 or even raised. I used this play against gidders the other day. I had just lost a good amount of chips when I assume a donkey chased a flush(I folded and he didn't show) the very next hand i pick up AK and after gidders limped in first to act, i raised and he called. So it was two way action and I had position. The flop came 77K and he checked. Against a normal player i just would've moved in with the 500-600 I had left. But I made a nice bet of a little less than half the pot and he raised me! Needless to say all the chips got in and he spiked his two outer, but that's just bad luck. After you make a standard continuation bet with a made hand. the whole table then sees you lead out when you flop the nuts, it becomes much more difficult for them to call your standard continuation bets.
On the topic of firing more than one bullet at the board. One of the first video's I watched was a hellmuth video on bluffing and i can remember the quote of "stuey had no fear at the table, he'd fire that 3rd bullet and damn the consequences because it was the right play" so ever since then, if i feel the situation is right i will fire three bullets into the pot. granted it has to be against the proper person.
Hope this helps a little, or reply by telling me im a donkey and why.
I'm what willis was talking about
Sean
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What you describe may be due to a trend in poker (or at least to a trend in the games you and your friend play in), but isn't it more likely just that you and your friend's opponents are just adjusting their games for the fact that you and your friend tend to make continuation bets?
Poker is evolving, but the essense of poker at any point is making adjustments to your opponent's play and whether that adjustment is due to a braoder trend or just one opponent's style the adjustment is still pretty much the same.
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By
spks99
on
10-23-2005 6:31 PM
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I agree for the most part. But, I think you really have to condider the
opponent. Some opponents will fold to a cont bet 90% of the time
if the flop does not hit them very solid. Others will call it 90% of
the time. So, against the right opponent it is a great weapon. But at
the same time, against other opponents you are just begging to be raised
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By
drewAA
on
10-23-2005 7:52 PM
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the main things to take away from this discussion are:
1) aggression is king - taking control of pots by leading/raising is the best and most logical way to take down pots
2) flexibility and pattern recognition - understanding the reasons
behind why your opponents respond to your bets the way they do is key
to exploiting their betting patterns. anticipating and exploiting a player's betting patterns is of paramount importance.
you guys already knew this, i just thought i'd boil it down to the fundamentals.
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Opponents on all levels won't allow you to use continuation bets TOO often. The better player will test you, and the donkey will get emotional and reraise you.
So, moderation has to be key.
When I make continuation bets, I pretty much know for certain whether I'm going to the river with my opponent or not (if not that means one of us will surely fold, if so, then I'm up against a donk, or I have a nice situation where he has 2nd best hand). If I'm going to the river, I know that the information given to my opponents will affect the way they play against me, therefore, I HAVE to have a hand that obviously makes people fear my continuation bets, but at the same time, isn't done TOO often (or if it is, when someone finally either donks out or takes a stand, I actually have something).
Finally, aggression is good, but some donks and new players confuse aggression with loose play. So, I wanted to quickly say that if you're new, and you're watching some of the better players, and you notice they're not in too many hands (especially early), don't think they're playing non-aggressive. When they get in a hand, they force their opponent to make tough decisions, and they typically do this more and more as the blinds go up (or their stack increases) which is a very logical thing to do. With the blinds up, there's more money in the pot and more at stake which will force the opponent into some tough decisions...or, when they have a large stack, they can afford to put more people into tougher decisions, especially the average stacks who are hoping they don't become small stacks.
P.S. At a casino a few weeks back, saw a dude wearing a Got Donks T-shirt, and I didn't have time to actually catch up with the dude to ask him where to get it. Anyone know where some funny poker shirts like these can be found?
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