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The Advantage Player[ return to main articles page ]
The following article is written by professional poker player Paul "grapsfan" Herzog, who has been a Contributing Writer for PocketFives.com since 2005.
One of the best bosses I ever had was a gentleman whom I’ll call “M.K.” M.K., a 20-year veteran of the company, was worth millions from his stock options and other shrewd investments. His retirement was set, kids’ colleges and trust funds good to go, and he had all the stuff he could possibly want. Everything in his life was paid for. M.K.’s two passions in life were his job and playing blackjack, not necessarily in that order. He loved our industry, our customers and the company. And he loved playing cat-and-mouse with casino security personnel who were trying to get him out of the building. You see, M.K. was a card counter, or what the industry now calls “advantage players.”
I’ve known how to count cards ever since I was 15 and found a copy of Edward Thorp’s “Beat the Dealer” on a back shelf of a used book shop. As I visited casinos over the years, I tried some of what I knew, without the bankroll or the nerve to be a full-fledged counter. But I never spent much time with someone who counts cards in the way an “advantage player” does. Over various business trips, lunches, and happy hours, M.K. told me about disguises, half-point modifiers, intentional mistakes to throw off pit bosses, team scams he knew, and others tricks he had dreamt up. He’d regale me with a story each morning if he snuck back into the Horseshoe in Hammond, Indiana, (where he was black-booked) the night before, or if he talked his way out of a similar fate at Empress in Joliet, Illinois. I’d help him plan out weekend road trips through the Indian casinos in Wisconsin, or the riverboats along the Mississippi.
M.K. also burst my bubble about the #1 “Advantage Player” Myth: you are, by no means, a sure thing. Just because you know how to count, and you play as perfectly as the system will let you, there is no guarantee you will end a session, or even a string of sessions, as a winning player. All counting does is move the advantage from approximately 2% in the house’s favor to 2% in yours, depending on several factors (hit-or-stand soft-17s, the spread between min & max bets, the depth of the shoe, etc.). The 4% swing is huge over the long term…but I still heard a lot of M.K. weekend reports starting with, “Those dickheads kept hitting and cleaned me up pretty good.” An advantage blackjack player still has a 48% ^ 4 = 5.3% chance of 4 consecutive losing sessions. This is 38% better than the odds of a basic-strategy player having a 4-session losing streak. But losses, even consistent losses, can still happen.
So, no matter what impressions you may get when the movie “21” opens this weekend…don’t believe the hype. Warren Buffett sometimes picks dud stocks, Kobe Bryant doesn’t make every shot, and the MIT Blackjack Team had plenty of nights where the dealer kept pulling three baby cards to bust a doubled-down 20 regardless of what the running count was.
In the game of poker, many of us are also what could be considered “advantage players”. We have a skill which provides us with an edge against our competition. In the long run, we can beat the game. In the short-term, however, we are still subject to the brutality of variance and cruelty of dumb luck favoring an opponent whom we think shouldn’t have a prayer of beating us.
The best way to deal with such injustice is to get over yourself. Put your advantage in perspective: it’s real, but almost always fairly small, especially against a full ring table. You’ll miss draws, but your skill in getting away when the price isn’t right will minimize your loss when you do. You’ll get drawn out on, but your skill in bet sizing will maximize your profit when you don’t. Those edges are usually invisible over hundreds, or even thousands, of hands.
The phrase “advantage player” doesn’t specifically state WHEN your advantage will be obvious and reap its financial rewards. If you know you’re a successful player, but keep getting crushed by bad luck and card-catching opponents for weeks or months – remember these words: “You are never as big of a favorite as you think you are in the short-term. But the short-term is irrelevant.” And keep your chin up.
One of the best bosses I ever had was a gentleman whom I’ll call “M.K.” M.K., a 20-year veteran of the company, was worth millions from his stock options and other shrewd investments. His retirement was set, kids’ colleges and trust funds good to go, and he had all the stuff he could possibly want. Everything in his life was paid for. M.K.’s two passions in life were his job and playing blackjack, not necessarily in that order. He loved our industry, our customers and the company. And he loved playing cat-and-mouse with casino security personnel who were trying to get him out of the building. You see, M.K. was a card counter, or what the industry now calls “advantage players.”
I’ve known how to count cards ever since I was 15 and found a copy of Edward Thorp’s “Beat the Dealer” on a back shelf of a used book shop. As I visited casinos over the years, I tried some of what I knew, without the bankroll or the nerve to be a full-fledged counter. But I never spent much time with someone who counts cards in the way an “advantage player” does. Over various business trips, lunches, and happy hours, M.K. told me about disguises, half-point modifiers, intentional mistakes to throw off pit bosses, team scams he knew, and others tricks he had dreamt up. He’d regale me with a story each morning if he snuck back into the Horseshoe in Hammond, Indiana, (where he was black-booked) the night before, or if he talked his way out of a similar fate at Empress in Joliet, Illinois. I’d help him plan out weekend road trips through the Indian casinos in Wisconsin, or the riverboats along the Mississippi.
M.K. also burst my bubble about the #1 “Advantage Player” Myth: you are, by no means, a sure thing. Just because you know how to count, and you play as perfectly as the system will let you, there is no guarantee you will end a session, or even a string of sessions, as a winning player. All counting does is move the advantage from approximately 2% in the house’s favor to 2% in yours, depending on several factors (hit-or-stand soft-17s, the spread between min & max bets, the depth of the shoe, etc.). The 4% swing is huge over the long term…but I still heard a lot of M.K. weekend reports starting with, “Those dickheads kept hitting and cleaned me up pretty good.” An advantage blackjack player still has a 48% ^ 4 = 5.3% chance of 4 consecutive losing sessions. This is 38% better than the odds of a basic-strategy player having a 4-session losing streak. But losses, even consistent losses, can still happen.
So, no matter what impressions you may get when the movie “21” opens this weekend…don’t believe the hype. Warren Buffett sometimes picks dud stocks, Kobe Bryant doesn’t make every shot, and the MIT Blackjack Team had plenty of nights where the dealer kept pulling three baby cards to bust a doubled-down 20 regardless of what the running count was.
In the game of poker, many of us are also what could be considered “advantage players”. We have a skill which provides us with an edge against our competition. In the long run, we can beat the game. In the short-term, however, we are still subject to the brutality of variance and cruelty of dumb luck favoring an opponent whom we think shouldn’t have a prayer of beating us.
The best way to deal with such injustice is to get over yourself. Put your advantage in perspective: it’s real, but almost always fairly small, especially against a full ring table. You’ll miss draws, but your skill in getting away when the price isn’t right will minimize your loss when you do. You’ll get drawn out on, but your skill in bet sizing will maximize your profit when you don’t. Those edges are usually invisible over hundreds, or even thousands, of hands.
The phrase “advantage player” doesn’t specifically state WHEN your advantage will be obvious and reap its financial rewards. If you know you’re a successful player, but keep getting crushed by bad luck and card-catching opponents for weeks or months – remember these words: “You are never as big of a favorite as you think you are in the short-term. But the short-term is irrelevant.” And keep your chin up.
Comments
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<p>well written</p>
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<p>this article is nice.....for me to poop on!!</p>
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<p>lol @ Dex.</p>
<p>grapsfan pwns get him his own bio for the stuff he writes!</p>
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<p>haven't seen the movie yet, but I'm sure it lacks the depth that the book "Bringing Down the House" did about the development of the characters...</p>
<p>Does the movie show the scene where the guy max bets 50K on all 6 slots two times in a row where the dealer pulls a 5 card 21? I think it was 950K loss in 2 hands...brutal. You think he went on tilt after that?</p>
<p>We should all ask Andy Bloch, as he was one of the late additions to the team...</p>
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<p>Another good article by graps. If I had a friend that wanted to start playing poker, I think the first thing I'd do is have him read all of graps (and a few others) articles here. You could be wise beyond your years at a very young age, and he gives out the information for free (even when it seems obvious once you read it).</p>
<p>I still want to see this movie/read the book. I'll probably wait for the DVD, only because it would be calling in favors to the wife to see this with her, and there are quite a few movies out there I'd just as well not have to sit through.</p>
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<p>I have come to the conclusion that long term is over a life time, and the short term can last for years. Correct me if I am wrong.</p>
<p>High</p>
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<p>The couple of people I know who've read the book and seen the movie already say to completely skip the movie. It takes "based on the book..." to a whole new level of making shit up. The only common theme is there were some kids at MIT who counted cards in Vegas.</p>
<p>Thanks for the kind words, everyone. And WAK's poop. All are welcome.</p>
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<p>When will I get an invite to the pants party?</p>
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<p>always good to see a well written article</p>
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