Jennifear’s latest article got me thinking about the biggest leak in my game, as I’m sure it did for many of you. Most poker games, especially No Limit Hold’em, are about putting your opponent on a range of hands, then deciding on a course of action for the likelihood of each hand within that range. Determining how your opponent thinks and plays, as Jennifear suggests, is the key to making an accurate assessment.

My leak is I assign ranges based on how I would play the hand in their shoes, not how they themselves would, based on my perception of them. A recent hand from a 27-man SNG provides a perfect example.

It’s Level 2…the blinds are 15/30, and going up to 25/50 in a couple minutes. I have just about my starting stack of 1500 chips. The table has been fairly tight, at least by the standards of a normal 27-man SNG. The biggest stack at the table doubled up early after flopped top two pair on a K-J-4 board, and got paid off by A-K. He’s fluctuated some since then, playing more hands than anyone else at the table, but isn’t freely donating.

I have T T in middle position. UTG raises to 90, and UTG+1 calls. I choose just to call with my tens, rather than re-raise and find myself in a difficult position if someone shoved. Both blinds also called, including the big stack in the small blind, making the pot 450.

The flop was 9 2 2. The small blind shoved, putting just over 3000 chips in a 450-chip pot. The big blind, original raiser, and UTG+1 all folded, leaving the final decision up to me. I have about 1400 chips to call to win 1850, getting a price of about 4:3 on my money. If I’m ahead a little more than 40% of the time, I’m good from a chip value perspective. I also understand the value of needing to double up in this level or the next, or I will find myself short-stacked with 50/100 blinds.

So, with what hand would someone shove like this? My first thought is, “He doesn’t have a deuce.” If he flopped trips, I would expect a value bet…or more likely at smaller stakes, a check, hoping the UTG player continuation bets and he can check-raise with his big hand. Instead, there’s a scared-looking shove, which doesn’t make sense with a big hand. The same logic goes for the even more unlikely case of nines-full.

What’s left? The next worst case, for me, is something like two club overcards, something like K Q or A J. This gives him 14 outs, since I have the 10, meaning we’re about 50:50. He could also have some Ace-rag club draw (11 outs), and I’m a 60:40 favorite. Or something like A 9x, for 5 outs plus a backdoor draw, and I’m 80:20 ahead…I’m hoping for this situation, obviously.

Let’s assign range possibilities of 50% for the two over-clubs, 30% to the Ace-rag club draw, and 20% to the hand I have crushed. He has 25% equity in the first case (50% times 50%), 12% equity in the second (30% times 40%), and a 4% equity in the third (20% times 20%). So, I think he’s approximately 40% to win the hand…15% less than what I need. Sweet.

Of course, I don’t explicitly think all of this in the time frame allotted to me in an online tournament. My actual thoughts are three-fold:

1) I need to be about 45% to win overall.
2) He doesn’t have a deuce.
3) I’m better than 45% against everything else.

So I call. My opponent turns over ace-deuce for flopped trips, I don’t catch my 2-outer, and that’s the end of that...

Why did I take something like A2 or K2s out of his range? Because I would never play trips that way. I try to “never say never” when it comes to playing a hand a specific way – I don’t want to limit myself and block a way to get extra value out of a hand. But I don’t think shoving is the way to go here…unless the goofball last to act is me.

In a game like a $10 or $20 27-man SNG, many players are going to be scared any time there’s a flush possibility on board. The thought of maximizing the value from their hand is overwhelmed by the need to “protect” it. To be fair, I should also give some amount of accounting for the possibility of “you don’t think I think I should shove with trips, therefore, I’m shoving” 3rd-level thinking.

If we make new range assignments of 30% to trips, 30% to the two-overclubs, 30% to the ace-rag club draw, and 10% to A-9…we get 27% + 15% + 12% + 2% = 56%. What was a clear call is now a borderline fold. All because I assumed my opponent would play the hand similarly to the way I would.

When you go through hand histories and re-examine some of your tough decisions, be honest. Put yourself in their shoes. Play hands through your opponent’s eyes, not your own.

grapsfan

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