Previously, we discussed the short-term luck factor in winning poker tournaments. Sometimes the cards will fall your way, against the odds, to assist you in taking home serious money. By taking advantage of the small edge in decision-making skill you have in every hand, you can maximize the reward when you are lucky and minimize the damage when you are not. <READMORE>Independent of poker skill, it’s important to understand that some players go on rushes, heaters, lucky streaks, whatever you call them. The mathematics of variance dictate that sometimes you’ll get dealt great cards, even flop the nuts, an inordinately large percentage of hands. Poker isn’t purely a chance-based game but luck plays a significant role, which is futile to ignore.
Let’s say, I’m starting a league of professional coin flippers. We’ll have our Heads-Up Invitational Coin Flipping World Championship (HUICFWC) with 1024 of the best flippers available to get the league going right. The U.S. Mint in Philadelphia supplied the most perfectly weighted coins available, so everything is on the up-and-up. As the HUICFWC gets underway, someone is destined to guess right 10 times in a row and take the title.
As with the HUICFWC, the winner of a poker tournament is often destined to guess right ten consecutive decisions. Jamie Gold may or may not be a talented poker player but for a 5-day stretch this past August, he was ordained to flop monster hands and sleep with angels over and over. This phenomenon is obvious in just about every tournament…someone builds a giant stack through one form of luck or another. Skill allows a great player to make the most of that luck. How many times have you seen a bad player build a huge chip stack and not be able to hold on to it? Another example from this year’s WSOP, Dmitri Nobles, had a table-collapsing chip stack after the first couple of days. He could have left town, gotten blinded away, and gone deeper in the tournament than finish where he did. A good player would have taken better advantage of the early luck.
So, what to do in the middle of a tournament, when it’s obvious the cards aren’t on your side? Nothing special is happening. What if it’s clear the Chosen One is at your table, and it’s not you? Destiny is a word with different connotations to different people, depending on their nature. How you view the word, and the world, affects how you handle a situation we face almost every time we’re in a tournament.
World View #1: I Do Believe in Fairies, I Do, I Do, I Truly Do.
A player on a rush is someone to be avoided if possible. That doesn’t mean that you should fold KK whenever they bet, nor should you change your overall approach to the game. But maybe you should find other people’s blinds to steal, other raisers to try re-stealing from and, most importantly, other people to play coin flips with. Don’t let his luck take you out. Example: you’re nearing the money bubble in a tournament, in the small blind with 88 and an M of 9. The Chosen One has opened the pot with a raise, and you’re quite sure he has AQ. The Chosen One doesn’t lose coin flips. Consider just calling and playing a stop-and-go if the flop comes out low. Or consider folding. Use your position in the next couple of hands to get those blinds back.
World View #2: In the “Galileo Seven” Episode, Spock Says Destiny is Illogical
Cards have no memory. The result of five coin-flips in a row has no bearing on the sixth. If your opponent obviously subscribes to World View #1, he is certainly more likely to play another coin flip. And he may have the chips to knock you or anyone out of the tournament. Example: you’re nearing the money bubble in a tournament, in the small blind with 88 and an M of 15. You have approximately 40% of the chips of the Chosen One, who has again opened the pot with a raise. Against someone who shares your World View, a push back may likely be the best play; you have a lot of fold equity and want the big stack to look elsewhere for available blinds. Against someone who thinks they’re invincible because they’ve won five coin flips in a row, the term “fold equity” is meaningless and they’ll gamble with anyone.
Some people are looking for situations in which to gamble. Gamblers don’t need much of an excuse to take risks that are strategically unsound. The only thing more dangerous and unpredictable than a gambler is a gambler on a heater. Considering other approaches to deal with such opponents may help ward off the “how’d he call that?” blues.
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