I’m playing poker right now. $1100 Colorado Poker Championship Main Event. I just opened with KQ, got a caller. Flop KQ6cc, I bet, he calls. Turns a 6, I bet, he snap calls. River’s an offsuit 5, I bet, he snaps, ship it to that guy because he has 69o. Maybe poker is still better than DFS, but I can play DFS and write to y’all about DFS while playing poker!

I have spent much of the day pondering whether or not King Felix is broken. He put up one of the worst games of his career last game, getting smashed by the Red Sox for 10 runs on 12 hits in 2 and a third. His velocity was down and his release point was all over the place. His velocity is still fine on the year and in the last couple of months, although it should be peaking now rather than declining, which is concerning. What I have noticed is that opponents BABIP has been very high. In his last ten games, he has held them to .091 once, his average under .300 4 times, twice over .400, and three times over .500. His xFIP was over 7 last game… he truly had a poor performance. While his xFIP has been higher than it usually has been over the last couple of months, it has certainly not indicated that’s broken. He’s also extremely cheap tonight on DraftKings at 9.9k. If he truly is broken then I am going to lose a lot of money tonight.

Sale is easily the top option on the board. Price and MadBum have tough matchups and are expensive. At least Price gets a ballpark boost. Tanaka and Carrasco are good pitchers but they too have tough matchups in a hitter’s park. Cueto, Gio, Verlander, and Cashner are the only guys I am considering not named King or Chris.

Behind the plate Jaso is my cash game pick. I see a handful of GPP options including Posey, Lucroy, Grandal, and Oscar Hernandez for Arizona if he gets a good lineup spot. At 1st it is all Ben Paulsen for me. He usually hits 5th against RHP and his extreme splits keep his price low. At 2B I like Kiki Hernandez. Lots of other options too, if I don’t use Kiki at 2B then I am using him at SS. I do like Rollins and Peralta at SS though. At third I like Justin Turner for cash and Derek Dietrich for GPPs. And in the outfield I am targeting Blackmon, Trout (4.2K!!!), Carlos Gomez, Cuddyer, Buxton (rookie from MIN, has been leading off, hit well in minors, cheap), and Bourgeois is my favorite punt.

I think the Dodgers in Houston is my favorite stack. They get a nice ballpark boost, they can dong, they are neck and neck with SFG in leading the majors in WOBA v RhP, they’re cheap, and they should go overlooked. I have been hearing noise for Colorado but I’m not seeing it, I’d rather have the Mets bats. I think Toronto will go underowned tonight and they can hit home runs better than anybody. Lastly I like the Giants, especially if newly acquired Marlon Byrd makes the lineup. He will improve that whole lineup quickly and they get a nice ballpark boost. Locke isn’t anybody to be scared of and the Giants should go very overlooked tonight.

Devo