NASCAR happens tonight on DraftKings as opposed to tomorrow, don’t forget to get those lineups in soon! 12 games on the MLB slate so lots of action going on, let’s dive right in.

Handful of aces on the mound tonight. Greinke seems like the obvious play at Houston. We all know that HOU dongs a lot and isn’t striking out as much as they used to (they are still 2nd in the majors behind the Cubs in strikeouts though), but Greinke is still the best looker. Sonny Gray may be a safer option at the same price point, but Vegas only has Gray slightly more favored than Greinke; HOU and TB have nearly identical team totals. Give me Greinke and his K upside, I’ll take the risk of some HOU dongs. Better than death by paper cuts anyways, TB can really run up the pitch count.

Carlos Martinez has to be the best overall play of the bunch though at 9.2k versus 11.6/7k for the other two guys. He’s an identical -129 favorite as Greinke, has similar K upside vs. San Diego, and is in the best of the pitcher’s parks. I like Ian Kennedy in the same ballpark as a GPP play, and I also like Rodon, Tillman, and Nuno for cheaper options, with Rodon being my favorite of the lot due to his K upside.

Many options on bats tonight, it will be key to differentiate yourself from the herd in GPPs as there are many options at most positions. Two Coors field punt (is is possible to punt a position if that player is in Coors?) options exist in Anthony Recker and Dustin Garneau at 2.2 and 2k respectively. Lucroy, Jaso, and Saltalamacchia are the top options. At 1B Duda looks good but he tweaked his back last night. If he starts he’s good, I doubt they would risk injuring Lucas. Napoli and Bour are nice mid tier options, and I like Kyle Parker as a punt. He’s Ben Paulsen’s right handed alter ego. 2B is a weak position tonight. Kolten Wong and Wilmer Flores are looking like my favorite plays at 3.3 and 3.5k. SS is a little weak too but Tulo is under priced at 3.6k. I like Johnny Peralta for his pop and Andres Blanco for a punt. At 3B it’s all Derek Dietrich for me. The whole Mets outfield is in play tonight. Tyler Collins from DET makes a nice punt.

The Mets stack looks great tonight but I think everybody knows it. I thought they looked great last night but they were under owned and went off, I bet they are over owned tonight, kind of makes me want to fade them. Rockies look good again too. I think Coors goes over owned tonight and rightfully so. Mets have a TT of 5 and COR is 4.5. I will likely go a different direction due to ownership. TEX, BAL, and KC also have TTs of 4.5, and CIN, PHI!!!, MIA, DET, BOS, and TOR are all supposed to score 4 runs. I like Texas the best out of that bunch due to price tags. BAL is running out a murder’s row of guys who can dong but they are expensive and Gibson isn’t bad. MIA and PHI make nice value stacks, lots of cheap power with two gas cans on the mound. DET also looks like a fine stack.

NASCAR

500 half mile laps at night. That means there are going to be a lot of fastest lap and laps led points to go around, and I still don’t know how to predict them. However I do know that starting up front helps you lead laps, and I do know that having a fast car helps you have fastest laps, and fastest laps help you have laps led… irrefutable Southern logic right there. Should be lots of wrecks too, maybe even one like the bicycle races where one guy goes down and then 20 crash into him.

Kevin Harvick is the favorite and most expensive but his ownership should be low enough with many other attractive options around him. What I do know is that he qualified 7th, had the 7th fastest car in practice, and has led 294 of the last 2500 laps here. He’s got the 3rd highest driver rating here behind Kahne and Kenseth and he’s the best driver this season. Kenseth looks good too but I worry about his 18th fastest car in qualifying.

Kyle Busch may be the highest owned driver on the slate, but I think his brother Kurt Busch may be the superior play. Kurt qualified 11th so can pick up some place differential points. He’s better than his brother at this track, this type of track, and this season. He’s got the 13th fastest car in practice compared to Kyle’s 2nd. Kyle is the obvious chalk play, but I think Kurt makes a great GPP option as he should be the least owned of the 10k guys.

Kyle Larson is the best mid tier option I see. He qualified 12th but has the 2nd fastest car. He should earn some PD points and finish in the top 10. He should pick up some fastest laps and may lead some as well. Great value at 8.6k.

Paul Menard is my pick in the 7k range. Qualified 29th with the 11th fastest car in practice, he should make up some places and easily pay off his value.

Matt DiBenedetto Qualified 42nd, 32nd fastest car, he’s got decent history at this track and good results on this type of track. He’s not going to win, but he should easily pay off his 5.2k salary with some upside and unlocks a powerful remaining roster.

Lots of wrecks in this race, makes it even more advantageous to fade highly owned drivers in GPPs tonight.

Have fun out there!

Devo