Seems pretty standard to just 3betshove 74BBs BvB.
PS.fr>all <3

Oh and well written article Alex, good discussion.

That hand actually reminds me of a spot half a year or so ago which is why I'd like to add a comment on this one. This way I might clarify it even better for myself.

I think many low/med stakes who satty in a big one like this for example, get scared in such spots more often and prefer not to take what for them seems like a high risk situation, when in reality it's a great opportunity in a +EV spot to get a big stack (like described above). I on't assume Alex' friend belongs to those who isn't rolled for this thou, I don't know that.
We all might remember situations in poker when we were playing in a higher than usual pokergame and found ourselves backing out of pots because we were playing scared. So if u satty in a big tournament and play it on your own - you'd be better off doing the opposite of playing scared and just play solid. Easier said than done for many ppl I believe.

If hes willing to do that with aj i think his assumed pair range may be a bit tight.

Are we sure villain isn't willing to just rip it in with JJ or QQ here sometimes? I mean the 35 BB AQ shove indicates he is scared of playing postflp and may have a particularly tough time knowing what to do with premium hands if the flop texture isn't right. JJ and even QQ are quite vexing to this kind of player. If he his 3-bet shoving ~80 BBs then obviously he isn't thinking much about ranges or inducing or any of those fairly basic concepts that should guide rational decisions in an MTT.

I mean it's also possible that the villain is shoving absurdly wide here for various nonsensical reasons. But I don't know that we can rule out pairs that have us dominated either.

@Ahurazor
i dont really understand what you mean. in the calc i only used AJ-AK to show that if we are "sure" that we're always up against AK we should usually call. i didn't include any pocket pairs there in the calc, but also wrote the following: 2) Villain might go crazy because of players getting closer to the money with something like 2-2 to J-J and A-J , in which case we have up to 65% equity.

--> but the money argument isn't really important. if he has a PP in the bb he either is going to call for a set or just shove. we only can guess what he does, but in most cases nobody will shove QQ , rather just raise. it doesn't make much sense to talk about this particular player, but about what is most likely against similar players.

@bonealert
no we aren't sure. it's really tough to say what such a player thinks when he makes shoves like this. but i mean he's aware that AQ is a strong-ish hand in this situation, so even if he shoves JJ/QQ there, I think he's also shoving 88/99 at least, since these PPs are on a similar level like AJ/AQ. there are many players who play AQ very scared because it isn't in some premium hand chart. i mean, maybe he's just cracy and shoves any ace there! we don't know that, but simply likelyhood of him shoving JJ+ versus 22-TT is just in favor of the lower PPs, and maybe in rare cases it's vice-versa. and since we have 9% more against what is considered a flip we can#t really find a fold. i mean 9% is obv 9/100. but how much is it of the equity we need? 9/47*100 = 19%! unless i have a sick logical flaw right now we get that pot for free about every 6th time in the long run. this only counts for the AJ-AK range. if we take the 22-JJ and AJ range (65% with TT) we have 18% more than we need overall, and taking it from the equity we need: 18/47*100 = 38%... if we only take AQ and JJ+ we dont need to calc since we obv lose money, but again i think this range looks weird and is usually unlikely.

edit:

TT vs 88+/AJ+ ---> 49:51

i wouldn't want to call against this range with these odds and my stack, but with the money in the pot already im pretty sure we make a mathematicly correct call, even tho we only dominate 2 hands and are dominated by 4! remember that we want to win a huge tourney for a lot of money. and 230 players left guarantees us nothing! i can't count how many times i got in the top100 in the sunday million, but only FTed it twice. now imagine how it is regarding a yearly €1k.. it doesn't matter if we take a thin spot against a weak player or a tough player. and this villain wont give us a better spot by always showing preflop. so, imo, this isnt a super thin spot and i wouldnt hesitate for too long before calling. with 99/AQ this prolly would be much more interesting

edit 2: an important point i missed. if we make a normal 3x preflop raise we have to call less to win a bigger pot, which makes the call even easier.

how coul i forget one of the strongest arguments:

it could be a misclick ^^

i think it is a get in and 99/aq is very borderline. i mean i wrote long texts about why i think that. we're basicly ahead of his tightest range and from there it only can be more and more +ev. and yeah usually i would say such a shove is weighted towards AK pretty much always. but first it's aq in this case, which makes a big difference, and second he shoved like this in previous hands. do u fold tt and call with jj? sure we dominate aj but else i dont see how jj is that much better than tt. and this hand is foldable, but not with 230 left, imo. u say we have an edge if we fold, etc. but do u just say that because ur gut says that or can u back it up somehow? aq even might be the very top of his range, but also the bottom. i doubt such a player cares about how strong his pair is, he wont shove 88+ and just call the rest imo. i mean hes shoving in aq when he never gets called by aj, he prolly thinks aq is an ace high drawing hand. 22 must be the nuts then in blind vs blind. i made this call often enough to think that its a call. if u always fold there u maybe dont know with what crap people show up there. and sure we have a nice stack, but when the blinds go up u could make one bluff that goes wrong or get unlucky once and ur a shorty. with such a monster stack after the double up we can make a lot of more damage and put players to the test. we can loosen up the whole table and tighten up ourselves then, by simply going crazy for a few hands in a row which costs us a very small portion of our stack. so, i personally dont fold and i dont think folding is a leak. just think call > fold.

In this case math is stupid because you're playing against a "stupid" player. I use that term lovingly, I really mean a non-thinking player. The villian could have thought he was getting run over, even though it was a min raise. He came back with heat to announce his presents with authority. He's played too few hands at this level to know that a 3X reraise would have served him better. That said I think it's impossible to put him on any hand with any degree of certainty. He could have had A10s to ANY pp and played it exactly the same way. Scared little minds do funny things. I'm of the same mind as your friend. I'd regretted making this call as well, like him I would have made it but then said to myself "what was I thinking, he could have played AA the same". I think the regret stems from the realization he was risking his tourny life against a loose cannon. Notice the hero told you he regretted making the call, he didn't ask if the math was right. I'm glad it worked out for him.

First of all I am not really good with the maths and I am not sure if you should fold, I might end up calling ingame pretty often (I am prolly calling without thinking twice about it in a rando 50fo, villains range gonna be wider in a 50fo than in a yearly 1k. 1k€ is a lot of money for most recs) Just wanted to point out that you cant look at this hand in a vacuum, but have to take a look at the overall tournament runout. e.g how much addiotional value you gain by having 150bbs instead of just ~70ish. Imo your additional value is ~0, since you play a 75bb stack pretty much the same as a 150bb stack.

Assuming he shoves something like 88-JJ AJs/AQo+ we have 57.3% and should therefore call (agree with you up to this point RIR). If my math isnt flawed we win ~25k chips(~12.5bbs) by calling (wich is more than I thought when reading the HH first time) but on the other hand we bust ~43% wich results in being unable to 1. win any more chips in the softest 1k of the year 2. Cash (I know we're playing ftw, but there gotta be some ICM factors that we have to take care of when analyzing that hand)
Unfortunately I am unable to do all the maths thats is necessary from this point on and as I said I am unsure if you actually should fold and can't back it up with any math. It just feels not great to flip for 150bbs in such a soft 1k. (rly, I am not a nit and dont mind flipping/busting in general, but this spot is pretty unique)

 

i'd like to see simalr calculations regarding this spot

+1 gonna write him a PM.