Recently Wachovia wrote an article about how he believes online play has changed over the last six months. Wachovia’s article followed up on a post started by Gank. Wachovia and Gank both assert that players are making more “crazy plays” than ever by calling big raises or all in shoves that used to command respect and a fold.

I agree that more players are calling the all-in shove. I have read several theories. More donkeys. People misunderstanding loose aggressive play as meaning that you should call with anything. Players just dying to play a hand with a ranked player and take them out. What I think is happening is that players are adapting to the winning aggressive style of making big raises or pushing all in used by most successful MTT players. As a result, the game is changing some. <READMORE>

I am pretty sure it's not the excitement of knocking a ranked player out. I’ve only been a ranked player for a short time, so I can tell you, having been an unranked player, how I felt going against a ranked player. Respect. Caution. Shame at making a donkey move. I think many players don’t know a player is “ranked” or don’t care. But those that do recognize a highly ranked player usually react in only one way—respect. That’s how I did and do react. A recognition that a big move by a ranked player usually doesn’t signal Ace rag pre-flop or second pair weak kicker post flop. To the extent being “ranked” gets into someone’s head, most players don’t want to play the fool. Better to fold than lose with a donkey move.

So what is leading more players to make apparently weak calls? In the Gank thread, Aawwnutz explained it best—

"They call and play back at me because they are sick of me raising and re-raising every hand and every street."

Players are adapting to this aggressive style of play, and it's one of the changes in the online game. Its a reaction to the prevalence of the all in shove by more players. Better players recognize that a big shove is a very powerful tool, and that it bewilders opponents. Most times a player shoves most or all of his stack preflop, he or she has a range from a coinflip to a dominant hand against most other hands.

So when you are forced to defend against the shove, if you factor the possible range of hands of your opponent, unless you have a monster hand, you are either a major underdog or, at best, you are a coin flip. Not very good odds to call with your entire stack. That’s why it takes a much stronger hand to call with than it takes it to move in with.

Some players who repeatedly come up against this style of aggressive play just become more and more confused and erratic in their reactions. Players get frustrated at being bullied out of pots. They get impatient.

So they confuse calling an all in with pushing all in. The range of hands you push with is far greater than those you call an all in with. But weaker players see more players--particularly top players, shove their chips in and react, often with the incorrect play.

Aawwnutz explained further in his post:

“I'm sure they are just sick of you, and they go a little on tilt. The variance part makes it tough, but I'm sure you know, those confrontations are critical to obtaining a dominating chip stack.

As a matter of fact, I did the exact same thing against Rizen... I was the cutoff when he was the BB, and twice previously he pushed all-in when I opened with hands like A10 or KQ. His stack and my stack were comparable, so I really couldn't make a stand, even though I was probably in decent shape. The third time, I had 45k and he had 18k. I opened for 4000 with KJo, and he pushed for 16k. Normally, I don't call there with KJ, but I told him I was tired of his weak ass push and pray play and called him. Unfortunately for me he had KQ, not the 88, AQ, or A10 that I had hoped for...

I think both plays were fine. I refer to this as being kicked by a donkey.”

A rational player should not bet off his entire stack, place his tourney life on the line, or call an all in where they are either a major underdog or at best a coin-flip. (Notice that aawwnutz called the all-in when he had the much larger stack—a topic for a different day).

And calling an all in, for all but the most powerful hands, is usually much less than a 50-50 shot. Here’s an example why.

It's late in a tourney, and players A and B have decent and fairly equal stacks. The action folds around to Player A in late position who raises 3x BB with A10. B, as the BB, shoves all in. Rationally A has to fold here, as B has signaled a powerful hand. There is a good chance that B has a better ace or a big pocket pair. It's also fairly likely that the weakest hand B has is a small to medium pocket pair, or maybe KQ. B is usually not shoving with A rag or something lower there. In most of those likely hands for B, B is a heavy favorite over A. If B has a medium pocket pair or even KQ or KJ, it's basically a coin-flip. So A is either dominated or has at best a coin-flip. The only hand that A is a favorite on is when B is bluffing. And that’s not likely to occur most of the time.

So it's very hard for A to call the all in with his A10 or similar hand. That’s the theory of why it's hard to call a big raise or push pre-flop late in a tourney. Because many of the hands that shove there dominate your hand, and the majority of the rest of the hands are coin flips. Which means you are calling your tourney life on either a long-shot or a coin flip.

What has happened though is that the all in shove has led some players to go on tilt and overreact. They confuse pushing all in with calling an all in. And it seems today that more than a few players underrate pre-flop shoves and assume that the player shoving has a low to mid range pocket pair. Or is on a stone cold bluff.

So more players are fighting back, and I think it has led to a subtle change in play. I used to almost never shove with powerful hands such as aa-qq pre-flop, a set post flop, or the nuts on the flop. Now I do sometimes, because I believe that there is a growing indifference to the shove.

There is another subtle way that I think online MTT poker has evolved. The type of hands that players shove with when they have a low stack relative to the blinds, usually late in a tourney. SamENole had a great article on the cockroach effect, and I’ve read a couple of forum posts elsewhere on good hands for a desperation all-in shove.

Today, I think a good number of online MTT players have read Harrington’s books, and most better players understand the concept of shoving all in pre flop when their M drops below 5 (M is defined as the ratio of your stack to the opening pot).

The subtle change is how some players are now avoiding shoving with A rag and broadening the hands they do shove with. The theory behind this is that most players put a low stack player who shoves on A-anything. So the hands that call you, chip leaders aside, are often an ace and a big card, maybe less depending on the shover’s position. And you are a big dog to any of those hands when you shove w/ A rag.

So what hands stack up well against a big ace? Surprisingly, low to mid suited connectors do. You are still an underdog, but not that much, and you are much better off than when you go in with weaker face card hands, because of the type of hand that calls you there. The theory is that the only hands calling you are likely to dominate A rag, and you are better off, when called, to have cards that are not dominated by calling hands such as A with a higher kicker.

That's just another way that I think online tournament play is beginning to evolve in reaction to what has now become a standard play.

Good luck and see you on the tables!
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