As you probably know by now, PokerStars, the largest online poker site in the world, bumped the rake in its cash games, tournaments, and sit and gos. The cash game players most affected are high-stakes grinders, those who prefer Heads-Up No Limit Games. PokerStars doubled the maximum rake to $1 for all No Limit games in which two players are dealt cards at all levels below $25/$50. Above that, the rake cap is now $2. In addition, at stakes above $25/$50, the rake cap has gone up from $3 to $5 in games in which five or more players are dealt in.

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PokerScout, the premier cash game traffic tracking site on the web, has analyzed these games to see if the rake changes have had any effect in this week’s Scouting Report. There certainly have been effects, although whether the rake changes are the cause of the movement is up in the air.

At two-seat tables, peak player activity was down 10% for the week from an average of 420 players to 380. PokerScout reports that Saturday’s figure, which appears to be around 300 based on a graph provided in its weekly scouting report, is a new low. Additionally, the percent of total PokerStars traffic that heads-up players comprise dropped from 1.40% to 1.25%.

Traffic at the high-stakes tables actually went up last week by 6%. The percentage of high-stakes players, though, which PokerScout says is “more directly tied to the average player count,” increased by 21% from 0.27% of the site’s total traffic to 0.32%. PokerScout is unable to definitively explain this increase except to say it could just be volatility resulting from such small numbers or it could be the natural rise in high-stakes traffic as the weather gets colder and players spend more time indoors.

While high-stakes players are certainly not happy about the rake increases, a $2 max hike in rake really should not affect them too much when they are seeing pots in the thousands of dollars on a regular basis, PokerScout suggests.

Other types of cash games, PokerScout says, were largely unaffected by the rake change. PokerScout does see the rake increase in Spin & Go tournaments potentially turning away players and feeding them back into the cash game pool.

On the whole, PokerStars’ cash game traffic rose 0.6% for the week and, while any positive is good, it was well below the 4.5% jump the rest of the sites saw.

In looking for an explanation as to why PokerStars underperformed the market after outperforming it for three weeks, PokerScout points to the end of the Mission Week promotion as the most likely culprit. Once a popular promotion ends, players typically take a break or move on to another site that has a juicy promotion.

PokerScout also posits that players may be hesitant to start new tables, as the rake increase for heads-up games is applied only when there are two players sitting at a larger capacity table. It admits, though, that that guess may be a bit far-fetched.

PokerScout’s Scouting Report is a daily newsletter for the online poker industry, with in-depth data and analysis of the market. More information can be found by clicking here or contacting support@pokerscout.com.

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