The online poker traffic monitoring site PokerScout.com published its weekly Scouting Reporton Monday, detailing some of the latest goings-on in the industry. A portion of the piece focused not on what happened in the past, but rather would could possibly happen in the future when it comes to the United States’ potential golden poker goose: California.

Last week, as readers of this site may remember, the California State Assembly’s Governmental Organization Committee held a hearing to discuss the possibility of intrastate online poker. While it took on a decidedly pro-poker tone, no decisions were made about the game’s future in the state. If that future includes internet gaming, what might that look like? In its report, PokerScout painted a picture.

PokerScout began by comparing California to Spain. The state is a little smaller with 38 million residents (the largest US state), but has “at least” a 50% greater GDP per person and is a poker hotbed. Thus, the potential for a sizeable internet poker industry is substantial.

At the hearing, a number of annual revenue figures were presented, but ranged wildly. On the low end, Eilers Research estimated a California market size of $432.4 million, while Morgan Stanley more than doubled that, setting the number at $1.0885 billion. In the middle was a GamblingData projection of $597.3 million.

PokerScout then reminded readers that lofty predictions for New Jersey’s online gaming market have all sailed far over the actual results, while PokerScout itself, along with Academicon, came in with a much lower estimate for the Garden State. At $39 million for the first year, PokerScout admitted that even that may be high. It explained, though, that regardless of the accuracy of its estimate, it ended up with a more reasonable figure because “it was based on real data on real online poker players.”

Overall, PokerScout used its deep well of data collected over the years, focusing on player demographics at the peak of the industry, prior to Black Friday.

That said, PokerScout projected the California online poker market at less than $250 million, well below even the lowest estimate provided at the hearing. Based on a graph included in its report, PokerScout projected about a $220 million initial year if online poker were restricted to only players within state borders, as it is in New Jersey. If poker gets expanded outside the state’s borders via interstate compacts, PokerScout’s estimate increased to close to $250 million.

Delaware and Nevada have already entered into such a compact, though it has yet to take effect. This assessment likely includes would-be ventures with Nevada and Delaware, as those two small states in terms of population would almost certainly jump at the chance to partner with California. New Jersey has shown some hesitation to join forces with other states, but very well might be willing to team up with the largest state in the country.

If online poker were opened up to the entire country, PokerScout’s projection climbs to around $320 million for California in the first year.

Over the course of the first ten years, PokerScout forecasts growth, but nothing earth shattering. For instance, it sees Year 10 in-state only revenues at about $260 million.

Visit PocketFives’ California poker community for the latest news and discussion from California players.

PokerScout’s Scouting Report is a daily newsletter for the online poker industry, with in-depth data and analysis of the market. More information can be found by clicking here or contacting support@pokerscout.com.

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