Player 1 still doesn't have enough data to feel certain that it shows anything resembling long term trends, but what he has is more than enough to direct him into a profitable situation. After keeping a spreadsheet for a little over a month, he noticed that the $3/6 limit game on UB was his most profitable cash game during that time. In fact, it was the only cash game where he was significantly ahead, although he had spent even more hours at several other games.
Does this mean he should bet his life that the $3/6 limit game on UB is his most profitable game? Does it mean he should be spending all his time in this game and never trying anything new? The answer to both these questions is "no," but if asked if he should put more time into playing this game, the answer would undoubtably be "yes." While not yet proven to be so, this game is theoretically a very profitable enterprise for him, and he has records to support his theory. Why not spend 5 more hours per week playing it and see what happens in another month?
Player 2 thinks he’s really good at the $50 sit-n-go’s on Stars. He’s won a few recently, and he loves the feeling of winning a quick $200 against weak competition. In reality, this player has in fact won a few $50 sit-n-go’s, but has also lost hundreds of them. In fact, in 378 $50 sit-n-go’s, he has exactly 46 wins, 29 2nd place finishes, and 34 3rd place finishes. Sparing the math, he has put $20,790 into buy ins and received $17,325 in payouts....ouch. He feels like he’s winning in these things, and overall, he's about even, so he assumes things aren't going too badly.
The truth is, even though he wins at a higher rate than 11.1% of the time (his "share" of the time), he's still a losing player (so far) in the $50 sit-n-go’s on Stars. He has no records to show how poorly he has done in these things, and since he is not able to fully evaluate his play while it is going on, he continues to assume that he is doing the right thing for himself, entering these sit-n-go's that are clearly destructive to his bankroll..
Player 3 feels like she can't do anything right. She's played 10 tournaments this week and not cashed in any of them, and she hasn't won a sit-n-go in what feels like ages. She has records of her play for the last few months, and upon looking back through them, she sees that she has been consistently successful in the no limit cash games on bodog. Her tournament trends over the years go up and down. Sit-n-go's aren't so bad for her, but her records seem to show a trend of worse play while in the midst of a losing streak.
The solution? Obviously she should be playing more of the cash game she consistently beats....and should be avoiding the sit-n-go's as long as things aren't going great. Even the multis should be avoided for the most part, as this player can tell from her records that even though she likes tournaments, all her profits come from the side games. When things aren't going well, all focus should be on spending as much time as possible in the game she knows she can win.
All these hypothetical situations are meant to do is alert the up-and-coming player of the sort of information he could be missing out on if he doesn't keep detailed records of all play, that include but aren't limited to: amount of time at the table, number of opponents, number of other tables played simultaneously, site on which he played, time of day at which he played, type of game, amount of buy in, amount cashed out, and any other comments he or anyone else has about what he did right or wrong. With this sort of record, he can keep track of exactly how much he's won or lost over time in each particular game he plays, profitability of playing at night vs. playing during the day, how well he's done while playing 4 tables concurrently, whether or not he succeeds in a short-handed game, etc.
It's just hard to visualize all this information at once, and having it written down and processed makes it so much easier. Spending more time in the games that are theoretically one's most profitable games will be, other than in rare cases, a major pad to the pocketbook. I suggest to everyone that you take the time to record your play, and that you use your findings to turn poker into something that's as profitable as it can be.









