2005 Main Event champion Joseph Hachem and noted pro Dutch Boyd were heads-up in the $2500 6-Handed NLHE event at the 2006 WSOP. Boyd had a solid chip lead, but couldn’t put Hachem away in several all-in showdowns. After the third hand, where Hachem’s AQ beat Boyd’s K3, the two players had the following exchange:

Boyd: That’s three times, Joe.
Hachem: Three times I’ve had the best hand, yeah?
Boyd: Put ‘em together, though, I like my chances. <READMORE>

Watching the broadcast, it struck me how Dutch Boyd understands two things: hickies, and the big picture of probability in NL Hold’em. AQ is about a 2:1 favorite over K3 for one trial. The odds of a 2:1 favorite winning all three times, as Hachem did against Boyd, is 8/27, or less than 30%. In the lump sum, it was actually Boyd who was better than a 2:1 favorite to have closed out the tournament in one of those three hands.

In poker, there are many aspects of luck to deal with. As a general rule, serious players work very hard to wrap our heads around the short-term: what are the odds against various hands and draws? Coin flip situations arise all the time pre-flop and we learn the Rule of 4-and-2 for draws on the flop and turn. We develop a sense of pot odds and what they mean for our decisions to call or fold. We understand how lucky we are when we suck out against a dominating hand. We try to shrug our shoulders and take in stride our loss in an AK v. TT race.

What gets missed is the longer-term, i.e., how lucky we are when our favored hands win over and over to build a huge stack in a tournament. The luck associated with strong pre-flop cards is three-fold:

1) We’re lucky to get good cards more often than “usual.”
2) We’re lucky that someone else gets good cards too, so that we can play the pot in the first place.
3) We’re lucky that our hand holds up.

We tend to think of good cards as our pre-ordained right. After all, we do our homework, devoting the time to study and understand the nuances of the game. We invest the time and effort to play tens of thousands of hands and develop a style that will best crush our lazy and impudent opposition. We deserve good cards, because only we know what to do with them! Those other donkeys will just give away any chips they accumulate being a giant card rack…so why should they get the cards in the first place?!

The truth is that if we wait for the subset of sessions where we get good cards, and the sub-subset where we get action, and the sub-sub-subset where they hold up…well, that’s a lot of waiting. A lot of buy-ins and brain cells will be lost pining for all of the stars to align. One of the first lessons learned - as a poker player - is whether you choose to be tight or loose, aggression is the key to success. Waiting for the cards to determine our fate runs counter to necessary aggressive instincts. A successful person manufactures opportunity, rather than waiting for opportunity to fall from the sky. This is true in most endeavors in life, but none more so than poker.

In poker, the best way to manufacture opportunity is constant vigilance. Always be looking for opportunities to extract value out of hands and chips from your opponents. From Hand #1 at the table, identify opponents who don’t defend their blinds well, or predictably play flops weak-tight, or can be re-raised off of hands. It is far too easy for us to see 94 offsuit in the cutoff position and click the “auto-fold” button, especially if we’re multi-tabling. This is a terrible habit to fall into…we’re denying ourselves the chance to steal a pot if such an opportunity is available. More importantly, we’re voluntarily admitting that we must have good cards in order to get into a pot.

Take note of the times where you get hit with the deck, and appreciate how lucky you were. Keep your focus on the big picture, not just on hand-by-hand probabilities. Dutch Boyd stayed focused and it paid off on the 4th all-in against Joe Hachem. Once again, Dutch was dominated by AQ against his A5, but a 5 on the river gave Boyd his first bracelet. Did Boyd get lucky, or did Hachem’s luck finally run out? Your perspective on that question – and your answer - can mean the difference between poker success and failure.
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