I wrote an article a while back about reading opponents in online games, and I promised to write a follow up with some examples of how to apply the techniques I outlined. That article got lost in the muck for a while, but I think it’s about time I continue on with this series.

This article is going to be a lot like the “poker quizzes” that have been getting popular recently on the message boards, but its focus is somewhat different—in the poker quizzes, we typically focus on how to play cards in a given situation. In this article, I will focus on how to translate a good read into a winning play, given the situation and the cards.

These hands ARE in fact real hands that did come up for me recently, and I do describe them exactly how they occurred. If you have feedback on any of this, I’d love to hear, so feel free to post about these situations in the Poker Discussion Forum.

Situation 1

I’ve got a player I know to be tight but aggressive sitting two to my right, and he’s been raising my blind quite often. The blinds are 200-400 with a 50 ante, and I’ve got a healthy stack of 15k, which is enough to cover the 11.5k of the aforementioned opponent. I pick up JJ in the big blind, and sure enough, this same guy raises up to 1200. I’m not gonna mess around with my jacks, so I bump it up to 3500. He thinks for a couple seconds and calls my raise.

Now I know this guy has been raising my blind quite a bit, but at this point, he HAS to have a good hand, right? I give him credit for AK at the very least, and the lowest pair I think he could have is nines. Remember, this is simply my read of the situation. Now I have to figure out how to apply that read, and that can be the tricky part.

The flop comes 943. This is a great flop for jacks, but I’m a little uneasy. I want to figure out right away if he’s got a bigger pair, so I bet out 4000, which is about half the pot and also half of my opponent’s remaining stack. He thinks for about 5 seconds and then pushes all in.

So what do I do?

I’ve determined that he must have either AK or a pair of nines or better, so there are only two hands I have beat that he could hold, AK and TT. Since it’s a rainbow flop, I know he’s not on any sort of draw, and I can’t possibly imagine that this solid, tight-aggressive player would be making this move with AK, since he has to give me credit for a very strong hand after my reraise preflop. While it’s a possibility that he holds tens, I have a hard time believing it, as again, he would have to give me credit for a pair at least that high, and I know he is good enough to have a read on me as well.

So I have a decision—do I fold, assuming he has nines, queens, kings, or aces, or do I call, since there’s already over 15k in the pot and it’s only 4k more. If I call and lose, I’ll be stuck with less than 10x the big blind, but if I fold now, I’ll still have almost 20x the big blind and be able to play some.

My decision is to fold, even though I’m getting nearly 4 to 1 on my call, and even though I’d be in great shape in the tournament if I call and win. I just can’t make myself believe I’m ahead in this hand. I feel like I’ve done everything I can at this point to feel out my opponent, and every last bit of information I’ve obtained points to me being stuck with 2 outs to win the hand—that’s about a 10% chance of winning. It just isn’t worth it. I will cut my losses at this point, even though I’ve lost half my stack in the hand, because there’s gotta be a better time for me to get my chips in than as a 90% underdog.

Situation 2

I’m playing a $3/$6 limit game, and I’ve noticed a pattern in the play of the opponent two to my left—he slowplays every time he hits a hand! I don’t just mean big hands, but even hands like top pair. He’s only aggressive after the flop when he is uncomfortable about his hand.

So I get dealt TJ in the small blind, and this guy raises to $6 from under the gun. Everyone folds around to the button, who calls. Assuming 4-way action (there’s only $16 in the pot, but I’m counting $19, assuming a call from the big blind), I go ahead and call, as does the big blind. The flop comes AJ2. I check, the big blind checks, and the raiser bets. The guy on the button folds, I call, and the big blind folds. I decide the raiser has a pair, probably as big as QQ or KK, since he raised UTG. I think he might even have TT. What I don’t think he has is an A, as my read on this player tells me he would check an A, hoping to check-raise.

The turn comes the 4, and I decide this pot is mine--if I’m willing to work for it. I check, he bets, and I immediately raise. I don’t know if I’ve got the best hand here—I think it’s possible I do, and I’m fairly certain I have outs if it’s not the best, which is something that factors into my decision. However, the main component of my decision is my feeling that this guy does not hold an ace and will fold to my raise. He thinks for a while and calls. I decide I’m giving up if I don’t improve on the river.

The river comes the J. Whew! I bet out and he thinks for about 15 seconds and calls. I pick up the pot, of course, and he mucks his hand. I look at the hand history and see that sure enough, he had KK.

So let’s analyze—what did I do right here and what did I do wrong? My biggest mistake was that I misread my opponent. I didn’t misread his cards—I read them perfectly. I misread him psychologically, thinking he would fold a high pair to a check-raise if there was an ace on the board. This is a common mistake a lot of average players and even some very good players frequently make, thinking that knowing an opponent is weak necessarily implies that they are willing to give up their busted premium starting hand.

I’ve seen a lot of players bicker at another player who called them down in a similar situation with an underpair and won, saying they should have been able to fold, etc. The truth is, I messed up and got lucky. My read of his hand was dead on, but I didn’t accurately determine how he would respond to my bet.

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There’s quite a bit of analysis that goes into applying reads, and I think I’m getting better at it all the time, although like everyone else, I still make mistakes here and there. The key is to learn from the hands you played wrong and try to improve your game, rather than focusing on wins and losses. I could have felt good about my play in that hand with TJ, since I ended up winning the pot, but I knew I’d made a mistake. While I’m glad I got lucky that one time, it doesn’t mean much for me in the long run, and I’d rather take that hand, as well as many others, as an opportunity to learn to read my opponents better. I hope you can do the same.