When players first start out in poker, one thing they tend to struggle with is the idea of Expected Value (EV). Getting used to the idea that there is a kind of ‘theoretical money’ that takes the place of actual dollars is a big step. Many people struggle with it and they end up thinking in very results-oriented terms throughout the early parts of their poker career.

Conventional poker logic would tell you that EV is the only thing that matters because in the long run, if you maximize your EV, you’ll maximize your profit. Obviously this is true, but I want to buck the trend a little bit and talk about a few reasons why you might want to keep your eye on the money in your pocket just as often as your EV.

The Importance of EV

Of course, I don’t intend to undersell the concept of EV or its usefulness. It’s pivotal to understanding any hand of poker, any concept, and any decision we make at the tables. We couldn’t analyze poker hands in the way we do without using EV to help us. The poker training industry would collapse and we’d all be a hell of a lot worse at the game than we are.

As poker players, we should bear in mind the EV of every decision we make – the amount of money it will theoretically make us if we continue to make that decision ad infinitum. The concept can even be used outside of poker – many players find it extremely useful to consider the ‘life EV’ of certain decisions.

For example, you might be weighing up two different job offers and decide that while the first might be marginally more enjoyable, the second one gives you more time off to spend with your family, which is a more ‘+ life EV’ decision if the goal in life is to be happy and fulfilled.

The Pitfalls of EV

There are a few things that EV as a concept doesn’t consider. It takes into account the long-run, but it doesn’t tell us how much variance is involved or how long it might take us to reach the ‘long run.’ If we think a decision is +EV, but there’s so much variance involved that we have to make that decision many thousands of times before we can prove that it actually is +EV, then the question becomes, “How likely are we to ever get to the point where we can even be sure we were correct in our assumption?”

In many cases, such as the decision to enter a tournament where we believe ourselves to be marginally +EV, we might have to play that tournament 1,000 times before we even have a vague idea of our true ROI or perhaps 10,000 before we have an accurate idea. This is absurd in most cases, particularly with live tournaments. It would take a marginally winning player decades of live poker to figure out his true ROI. Does he really want to spend his time that way? Probably not. There are better ways he could make money.

Tournament ICM as an Example

Tournament ICM is the best example of a mathematical poker concept that proves to us that real dollars are what matters. It takes the chip value of a player’s stack in a tournament and converts it to an actual dollar-value metric that can be used to aid the player in decisions. It recognizes that our priority in a tournament is to come away with the most money in our pocket, not to win the most theoretical chips. There’s no prize for the guy who makes a +EV call but commits ICM suicide.

Similarly, in cash games we might even be able to come up with metrics by which we actually benefit by focusing on real dollars rather than EV. An example of this might be the player who sacrifices a steady, regular income at lower stakes for a marginally higher income at higher stakes with much more variance. What is he or she really going to do with those extra theoretical $100 per month? Wouldn’t they rather play at a level where they have a much greater level of confidence in their actual income level and a lesser degree of variance?

It’s a bit like taking a less enjoyable job because it requires you to work 30 minutes less per week. Are those 30 minutes really going to make you that much happier? There’s a threshold for where the more enjoyable job becomes a better idea, just as there’s a threshold where lower variance, greater security, and a greater likelihood of actual money in your pocket become more important than a little extra EV.

Money, Bankroll Management, and Game Selection

Of course, the factor we’re ignoring is that maybe the above cash game player is already financially well-off and doesn’t need to worry about a little extra variance. That might be the case in many instances. Well, this is just another example of where the amount of real money in our possession starts to dictate our game selection decisions and bankroll management in a very obvious way.

Hypothetically, our goal as poker players is always to make the most money possible. But what if you already have more money than any poker player could reasonably make? There are always ‘businessman’ players in the Million-Dollar One Drop and the high-stakes cash games – do they believe they’re +EV? Probably not, but they simply don’t care. They’re willing to pay real money for the experience of playing with the best players in the world.

Conversely, what if you find yourself on the bubble of the WSOP Main Event and you’re a satellite winner who came to Vegas with $2,000 in their pocket? Cashing for upwards of $10,000 would be a huge victory for you. It would be absurd for someone to think about winning the tournament in that situation, and playing simply for the reward of cashing the tournament is comfortably enough for many people. The guy who can’t pay his bills at home but bubbles the Main Event because he couldn’t fold a pocket pair pre-flop? He’s not a smart man.

The Bottom Line

Of course, in less extreme situations, bearing in mind the EV of your decisions is always going to be a useful habit to get into. But many players lose sight of why we’re all in this game. We’re not in it to win the respect of our peers for making the most +EV decisions in a vacuum; we’re in it to make the most money possible. We might also be in it for enjoyment, competition, or any number of other reasons, all of which are valid considerations in every decision we make, but money is why poker exists. The game isn’t played in a vacuum.