The headline probably doesn't shock you if you're in the world of online poker. There's a reason why PocketFives.com became popular by ranking online poker players: Texas Hold'em, in its essence, is a game of skill. Citigal and PokerStars have taken that mantra one step further and performed a study of 103 million hands. What percent of those do you think actually made it to showdown? Go ahead, I'll wait. When the study's results were released, it was revealed that just 24.3% of hands went to showdown. In essence, the other 75.7% were won during the process of betting, raising, and folding. Let's take a took at some of the specifics of the online poker study.The study was conducted on PokerStars in conjunction with Cigital. The results were written up by Professor Sean McCulloch of Ohio Wesleyan University and Paco Hope, a Technical Manager at Cigital. Its purpose was “to establish clear numbers derived from a significant sample of actual play.” The data was logged on PokerStars back in December, around the same time as the site was busy breaking world records for the largest online poker tournament (35,000) as well as the most number of players simultaneously at its virtual felts (250,500).
Three-quarters of the hands in question were resolved prior to players flipping over their cards to see who won. Of the 24.3% of hands that managed to make it to showdown, just 50.3% of them were won by the player who could have made the best hand. In the other 49.7%, the player with the best hand folded prior to showdown. Therefore, the player who held the best hand won at showdown only 12% of the time. If you're more of a graphical person, the chart below shows the distribution of hands that did not go to showdown (purple), went to showdown and an inferior hand won (green), and went to showdown with the best hand winning (blue):
As you may expect, a study with sound mathematical reasoning for why poker is a game of skill was happily welcomed by the Poker Players Alliance (PPA), who has used the new ammunition in recent court cases in South Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. PPA Chairman Alfonse D'Amato, a poker player and former three-term Senator from New York, commented in a press release distributed by the organization, “As a poker player, I can tell you that knowing when to hold or fold is not based solely on the cards that are dealt, but a series of decisions based on skill and the actions taken by the other players. This study provides the raw data to back up the compelling arguments made by poker players around the world that it’s skill, not pure luck, that determines the outcome of this game.”
Professor Robert Hannum from the University of Denver was charged with presenting the results of the poker study in a South Carolina court room, were five defendants were charged with illegal gambling stemming from an incident that occurred in 2006. The PPA paid to send both Hannum and World Poker Tour Host Mike Sexton to South Carolina to testify that poker is a game of skill. In his decision, Judge Larry Duffy noted, “Texas Hold'em is a game of skill. The evidence and studies are overwhelming that this is so.” However, the five defendants were still found guilty because South Carolina law was not clear as to whether skill should be the determining factor as to whether an activity constitutes illegal gambling. The case is due for appeal.
In the Cigital study, only cash game hands were considered. In addition, both heads-up and play money games were excluded. Micro-limit tables were largely excluded due to the study's authors believing that they were too similar to play money games, although the results reveal that “a few” were included. In situations where the board represented the best five card hand or two players split the pot, it was not flagged as being won by the player with the best hand. PokerStars solicited several players for hand histories and received 714,000 usable hands in return. This number represented 0.69% of the 103 million studied.
On a national level, it may be important to see poker defined as a skill game. During the 110th Congress, which ended in December, Congressman Robert Wexler (D-FL) introduced the Skill Game Protection Act, which exempted poker, bridge, mah jong, and other games classified as “skill” from the Wire Act of 1961 and Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). Many in the industry have argued that the best chance the game has to become legalized is with an online poker only bill, which may be more palatable if it is clearly a game of skill.
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