Anyone who has watched poker on television for 15 minutes knows by now that there is a classic pre-flop coin flip scenario in the game of Hold’em: a pocket pair is a slight favorite over two unsuited overcards. The odds on this scenario range from a true 50%-50% situation with a low pair like 2s or 3s (which are actually an underdog against suited connecting overcards like 9-8, 10-9 or J-10) to about 57%-43% with Q-Q v. A-K. This is the coin flip that you will face a half-dozen times in any big multi-table tournament, especially in the middle stages where the antes kick in and the blinds get big in relation to the medium-sized stacks. <READMORE> In a piece I wrote called “Hold’em is a 7-Card Game” a few months back, I presented a second coin flip scenario, where someone has 14 outs (open-ended straight draw with two overcards) or 15 outs (flush draw with two overcards) against a made hand on the flop. In my experience, this happens far less commonly than the Coin Flip #1, but is crucial to keep in mind when making big plays against small flops.

I’d like to talk about a third important coin flip to understand and recognize. This comes into play almost exclusively at the end of multi- or single-table tournaments; you’re down to 3-, 4- or 5-handed play, the blinds are huge, and someone has only three or four big blinds left in their stack. The basics of this pre-flop coin flip are a high-low hand versus two middle cards. It happens a lot when two medium-sized stacks are pushing with decent but not great hands (A-10 v. K-Q). More often than that, I see it when a small stack is willing to push with any ace, and a big stack will be getting the right price to call with any two decent cards (A-4 v. Q-9). Reading the table situation, knowing the likelihood of Flip #3, and deciding whether to push or call are the key factors for both sides.

If you’re a short stack with the A-baby, push. Whaddaya waitin’ for, Christmas? You’ve got an ace, for pete’s sake. The online poker police will come knockin’ on your door if you don’t. OK, I’m being a little facetious here, but I’m not breaking any new ground with this advice. The catchphrase “any ace and play the race” definitely applies.

If you’re a short stack with the two middles, you should feel better about this hand than you would otherwise. Play Q-10, K-9, even down to J-8 or J-9 the way you would a baby pair: push. Understand that you’re going to get called by any ace, but that you’re not that far behind. Even TV “experts” misread this situation: Sexton and Van Patten have consistently said it’s “nearly a 3-to-2 underdog” to describe this 54%-46% situation, while a 57%-43% Q-Q v. A-K is almost always called “a coin flip.” If your opponents are willing to give you more credit than your hand deserves and fold, that’s great. If you get action and you win the race, that’s even better. But knowing when to take a stand is the key to short-stack play, and this is a situation that lots of players will let go by the wayside. You’re going to have to get lucky at some point with 4 or 5 players to go to bring home the title…how many times you wish to get lucky dictates how long you should wait as a short-stack. Me, I’m looking for the first good coin flip, and Scenario #3 is as good as any.

If you’ve got a relatively healthy chip stack in early position, understand that A-baby isn’t as good as most people think it is. Almost any hand that stays in the pot with you will fit the Coin Flip #3 scenario at best, and you’re likely a 2-to-1 underdog (against a middle pair) or 3-to-1 (against a dominating ace). Depending on the table situation, you can certainly raise with this hand, as it very well could be the best hand or you know there are tight players to follow that will let you steal the pot…but I’ve also folded it UTG when I knew that the other players would put me to a coin flip that I didn’t need to play. If you’re ahead in that situation, you’re just barely ahead of anything but the lowest of low hole cards.

If you’ve got a relatively healthy stack from the blinds, it’s even better for your J-9 than you might otherwise think. The range of hands to which you’re approximately 50%-50% is much better than just baby pairs. If you know that the short stack pushing UTG will do it with any ace or king, you’re getting the odds to call, better odds than most players will think they have. In this case, Hold’em is a lot like Omaha: if you’re a dog, you’re probably not much of one. You’re only 3-to-2 against a hand like A-10, 2-to-1 against A-K…and there’s only a 6% difference between those two ratios. There are very few situations in short-handed play where you’re not getting the right price to make that play.

In thousands of sit-and-go tournaments over the years, the #1 mistake I see short-stack players make on the bubble is getting blinded away while waiting too long for good cards with which to make a stand. The #1 mistake from big-stack players is that they’re willing to let too many blinds go by waiting for a monster to knock the short stacks out. Both problems can be rectified by recognizing the likelihood of Coin Flip #3, and knowing that either side of it if often times the right hand to play. So, good luck with that coin flip, all of them that you encounter…just not against me, OK?
</READMORE>