March was like a marathon trip to the endodontist for me at the poker tables, but I learned a lot from my root canal-like slump. One thing that was reinforced in a big way is that there is much more understanding of short stack strategy, restealing, etc., and it’s crucial to keep developing counterstrategies to stay ahead of the game. As Rizen and others have pointed out, changes in overall levels of aggression and other trends among players are always happening, in part because of all of the books and training sites, etc. You absolutely must be ultra-flexible, nimble and observant to keep up. <READMORE>

The key is to figure out or filter your opponents and decide what their actions mean. What will work against a very smart, very aggressive player may of course be totally different from what will work against a timid novice who may not be as current or sophisticated. It’s a mistake to assume, for example, that a reraise from the small blind must be a resteal against your cutoff raise, just because the trend is toward more restealing these days.

The only way to filter your opponents is to observe every hand (and keep notes), and make your best guess based on the evidence. To illustrate, I thought I would walk through and analyze two hands against two very different opponents: one an excellent, aggressive pro and the other a more timid unknown. The fact that I knew – or thought I knew – the essential playing style of both opponents allowed me to make some good decisions for a change, one of which helped me get paid this past Sunday.

The first hand is from fairly early on in a recent Stars Nightly Hundred Grand. I have the big blind and tsoprano (“tsop”) has the small. Neither of us has gotten much going so far, and we are both around 2k in chips.

Seat 1: gomar05 (1290 in chips)
Seat 2: Papa Bull XL (1930 in chips)
Seat 3: corcodus (2230 in chips)
Seat 4: AynRand (2585 in chips)
Seat 5: goldeneye79 (1700 in chips)
Seat 6: danilokinge (2450 in chips)
Seat 7: t soprano (2090 in chips)
Seat 8: NestOfSalt (1985 in chips)
Seat 9: bigkidpoker (1740 in chips)
t soprano: posts small blind 10
NestOfSalt : posts big blind 20

Holecards:
Dealt to NestOfSalt [A 8]
FOLD bigkidpoker
FOLD gomar05
FOLD Papa Bull XL
FOLD corcodus
FOLD AynRand
FOLD goldeneye79
FOLD danilokinge
RAISE t soprano, 40 to 60
CALL NestOfSalt , 40

Blind vs. blind play is always tough, especially against a strong and creative player, but I want to see a flop with this hand.

Flop:
[7 A 8]

This is obviously a fantastic flop for me and I want to get as much money in the pot as I can.

BET t soprano, 80
RAISE NestOfSalt , 120 to 200

Obviously, I am hoping tsop will read me as weak-ish – small ace or draw. There are so many draws on this flop, there’s no way tsop can reach any firm conclusions based on my raise, and he may decide to play back with a big ace.

RAISE t soprano, 400 to 600

We got what we wanted here. Now the question is: will tsop call a push with just an ace? I actually didn’t have to think about this one for very long. Tsop is a great player. We’ve played against each other enough that I think he knows I am capable of pushing a draw here. It’s early in a very demanding tournament, and he plays to win, so he is willing to take some risk for a chance at doubling up and getting it rolling. He already has a lot of chips committed to the hand. Tsop may well eliminate or downplay a set or two pair for me on the theory that I would not want to discourage him too much with those hands. Also, a lot of turn cards – such as the Jh – can potentially kill my action, so I want to try and get it all in while I can. All of these factors militate in favor of pushing right here, right now. So I am going to push and hope he reads that as me committing with a draw/semi-bluff + fold equity.

RAISE NestOfSalt , 1325 to 1925 and is all-in
CALL t soprano, 1325

Showdown:
t soprano: shows [Q A]
NestOfSalt : shows [A 8]

This hand worked out extremely well, as we got a great player to put in all of his chips as a huge dog. Note that I think tsop played it fine and correctly concluded that I would push with many hands against which he would have been ahead or priced in. Against a timid or tight player, I would have probably played it much more slowly.

Speaking of tight, timid players, one of the key hands for me in last Sunday’s PokerStars Second Chance was also a blind confrontation, this one against an unknown (let’s call him “TP” for Tight Player). We were at the final table, and I had not played against this player at any earlier tables, but something very interesting had occurred on the last orbit. A short stack went all in, and the button called. TP was getting something like 10 to 1 on his call from the big blind, and he folded. He was not getting involved at all, and his chip stack was drifting downward. I got the strong impression that TP wanted to move up a few notches in the payouts and was determined to stay out of trouble. Meanwhile, aggressive players like phatcat and muchaka were bombing away, and the eventual winner (whose name is NE1_Call) was winning every big pot, which was allowing TP to move up.

I had the small blind and TP had the big blind. There were about 6 players left, with the bottom 5 all clustered in the 200k-400k range. With blinds at 7500-15000, it was folded to me, and I raised to 45000 with J4o. The cards are basically irrelevant – I was raising this guy no matter what. Somewhat surprisingly, he called.

The flop came something like A 8 3 rainbow, and I checked. At this point, there is over 100k in the pot and I have about 200k left, as does TP. TP deliberated and bet 30k. I read this as weak and decided to raise. I decided almost any raise would work if in fact TP did not have an ace (or better), so I made it 77k, and he folded. That hand was critical to giving me some maneuverability and allowing me to eventually take second, for a very zesty payday. Note that I think leading out also has merit, but I got a 30k bonus for check-raising. I could also make a case for check-pushing, if I thought he was weak enough to fold Ace-X in that spot to avoid going out 6th, but I like the way I played it in this very specific circumstance.

If my opponent had been someone like tsop, I would almost certainly have folded pre-flop and would have had a very hard time interpreting a min bet on that flop as a sure sign of weakness. What this hand shows is that it’s critical to watch your opponents closely, gather all of the information you can, and filter out the (increasingly rare) players who are more straightforward from the increasingly more common, loose aggressive and dangerous types.

Going back to Rizen’s point, you can’t just take a (correct) thesis such as “there is much more restealing and general aggression these days” and always play accordingly. Sometimes, you will get a table or an opponent that is very much the opposite of the trend, and you have to recognize that. By the way, I laughed when I read Rizen’s line about stealing – that EP is the new LP, UTG is the new button or whatever -- because the other day I joked to phatcat that TAG was the new LAG. It reminds me of what the South Park creators said about Hollywood: that the only way to be rebellious politically in Hollywood is to go to a party and yell “George Bush is THE MAN!” But I digress…

Anyway, the other key to the Second Chance for me was that with two tables left, I was seated right behind a player who was raising way too frequently pre-flop. That was a terrific break for me. I reraised all in three times against this player, first with AJ, then with 88 and finally with ATs. He decided to make his stand on the last one, and luckily for me he had JT, and my hand held. Again, this was a rare case where I was able to quickly and accurately identify my opponent’s playing style and employ a straightforward counterstrategy. Opportunities like this are increasingly rare in MTTs, with so many tough, aggressive players on the scene; it’s crucial to recognize them when they come, and to capitalize as much as you can.
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