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The unlucky middle[ return to main articles page ]

By: grapsfan
Published on Aug 30th, 2005
Have you ever felt not just persecuted by the poker gods, but completed obliterated, abused and left for dead? Do you say “Why Me?” so often that your voice is shot and you’re reduced to writing it on chat windows and Post-It Notes? Believe me, you’re not alone. It happens to most players at one time or another, especially those who study the game, visit sites like PocketFives, and understand how bad the odds of hitting a 3-outer (or worse) on the river are. Sometimes it feels like the cards caught just don’t balance out, like you’re on the outside looking in far more than you should be. The conspiracy theorist looks at it as the rigging of online poker. I turned to a high-school English Lit class for the answers.

In “1984”, George Orwell details a sociological system of the Low, Middle and High. Orwell used these terms to break down society by wealth, and more importantly, power. In this case, I use it to talk about poker skill and how it pertains to luck. The Low player hits his gutshot straight draws on the river and turns a rag to match his lousy kicker. The Low player cracks your AA with 6-8, despite your big raises and aggressive play, because he doesn’t know well enough to get out of your way. The Low player seems to have all the luck, because you remember their donkey suckouts and clueless calls long after they’ve gone broke and left your table.

The High player is a master of mixing up his play and understanding the implied pot odds of hitting a big hand with unexpected hole cards. The High player has the ability to read opponents and game situations and to buy pots with rags, as well as the confidence to play his way out of bad situations, along with the fear factor that comes with that confident image. The High player cracks your AA with 6-8 because he’s unafraid of your raises and aggressive play, and because he knows how to get out of your way if you really have a dominant hand. The High player seems to have all the luck, because their reputation makes them known as a player who wins big pots with bad hands.

The Middle player usually understands pot odds, knows the Top 20 Hold’em pocket cards and the benefits of tight play, and they can usually stick to their guns and make some money when faced with an abundance of Low players. The Middle only chases when someone makes it the proper play, always gets rid of hands with bad kickers, and is only mildly bothered by missed opportunities and folding the best hand. The Middle player never cracks your AA with 97 because he folds 97 preflop.

The point of all of this is that the Middle player never seems to have any luck, because luck is rarely a factor in how they play poker. Their money goes into the middle only when pretty clear that they have the best of it. There is less gamble to the Middle’s game than the Low or High, by a large margin. The Middle’s reaction to watching someone splash around with second pairs and flush draws is almost always negative....as opposed to the High, who understands that the key to poker nirvana lies in the ability to get maximum value out of the cards dealt to them. The Middle’s reaction to a big stack’s rags eliminating a short stack’s “good cards” is one of disgust....as opposed to the High, who understands that this is one of the benefits to having a big stack rather than simply surviving in a tournament.

To the Low, poker is 80% luck, because they don’t know any other way to play it. To the Middle, poker is 30% luck, almost all of it detrimental to their game. To the High, this ratio is completely irrelevant. They benefit the least from pure luck....because they are making their own, not waiting for the poker gods to bless them with a river or waiting for lots of big pairs and nut flushes to build a monster stack.

Just something to think about when trying to analyze ways to take your game to the next level....or wondering why your favorite poker site seems to hate you so damn much.
 

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