A recent question posted in the PocketFives Hand Advice forum focused on one of the most common NLHE topics: bubble play in SNGs. In this particular spot, there were six players remaining in an 18-man SNG where four spots paid. The Hero in the hand was in the SB with A-6 offsuit, and was facing a shove from a similar-sized stack on the button.

I ran the hand through an ICM calculator, which showed that based on its Nash equilibrium calculation, A-6 offsuit was just out of the Hero’s range for calling based on the button’s shoving range.

Jennifear added her own thoughts on the hand…in part:

- You should call wider than ICM suggests because you will need to protect your fold equity.
- Most people shove tighter than ICM suggests here, so call tighter for that reason.
- The above two points cancel each other out.

A tool like an ICM calculator, as I’ve written recently, bases its mathematical model on optimal play from all parties. Outside the game theory world, people don’t play optimally, so the assumptions made aren’t always true. But without other reads, it’s a good starting point for discussion and analysis.

The Villain’s shoving range on the button, according to the ICM calculator was the top 31.5% of hands (22+, Ax+, K6s+, KTo+, Q8s+, QTo+, J8s+, JTo, T8s+, 97s+, 87s). The Hero’s calling range from the SB is the top 14% of hands (44+, A7s+, A8o+, KJs+, KQo). According to PokerStove, the Hero has 58% equity with these ranges.

However, few players are so perfect at push/fold bubble play as to get the button-shove range exactly right. As Jennifear rightly points out, most players at the Hero’s stakes will shove tighter, which requires it’s own adjustment in terms of a calling range.

So let’s say the Villain’s actual shoving range is the same as the Hero’s original calling range. To maintain the same 58% equity edge, the Hero is reduced to {88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+}. If this feels really tight…well, it is. When you’re learning push/fold bubble play, one of the most difficult concepts to change from how books say to play pre-flop poker. Weak aces and baby pairs, which may seem to play well, drag your equity down.

From time to time, you’ll find players in these tournaments whose shoving range is much wider than the one recommended by the ICM calculator. If the Villain is shoving with the top 50% of hands, the Hero expands to about the top 20% of hands, something like {22+, A2s+, K8s+, QTs+, JTs+, A7o+, KTo+}.

If making this call with K-T offsuit seems really loose to you, then reconsider your original read that the Villain is shoving light. We use the cliché “shoving with Any Two Cards” quite liberally around here, but at the end of the day very few people call like they believe their opponents are doing it. If you believe your opponents’ range is Any Two Cards, the correct ICM-based calling range to have 58% equity in the pot looks something like:

{ 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q3s+, J6s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q6o+, J9o+}

That calling range would pretty much get you flamed in every chat box and online forum. Therefore, I believe very few people actually follow the “shove Any Two Cards” principle, at least when we think about our opponents rather than our own play…it’s just something we talk about because it sounds good and makes a cool acronym.

There’s no one-touch way of determining this with the free analysis tools available to everyone…but it only takes a few minutes to input various ranges into PokerStove and see what the pre-flop equity of each range is. If you come in too high, widen the Hero’s calling range. If you’re not enough of a favorite, tighten up.

If you want to know what I do when I’m evaluating a hand and looking for leaks in my game…this is it. I primarily play these multi-table SNGs, 18-mans to 45-mans. I don’t have enough time to play any sort of MTT schedule on all but the most luxurious of days. I love these multi-table SNGs, and you see spots like these all the time – nearly every game. Master this analysis technique, plug your leaks, and they can be incredibly profitable for the low-to-medium stakes player.


I’d also like to encourage everyone to stop by the Hand Advice forum, post questions and interesting spots, and join in the discussion. Many PocketFivers post hand questions in the Poker Discussion forum only. They do this for two reasons:

1) Not enough people read the Hand Advice forum (admittedly, this is true)
2) Better players read the Poker Discussion forum (arguably true)

If everyone who felt #1 was a reason not to visit Hand Advice did so anyway…#1 wouldn’t be true anymore. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, along the lines of Yogi Berra’s famous quote about a popular restaurant: “Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded.”

In rebuttal to #2…yes, you may get some serious advice from a great player to help plug your leak. You may also get a level, a flame, a thread hijack, or nothing at all before the hand falls onto Page 2 after an hour. People who visit Hand Advice are there to seriously discuss poker theory and strategy. You can trust almost any post as being what someone thinks is the best idea. Whether or not they’re right is another story…but that’s true of any forum, poker or otherwise.

All you can do is run the numbers…then consider if the “correct” answer is really the right one for the situation.


grapsfan Paul Herzog

*Opinions expressed in this article and all member-submitted content belong solely to the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or views of PocketFives.com, its staff, or administration.

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