Am I running bad? Playing bad? Am I the unluckiest person in the history of statistics?
One of poker’s great mysteries is how success can spiral so quickly into failure. We can get our money in good or make the right play, and have everything backfire with the next card. Critical decisions can be second- and third-guessed, over and over. There is an infinite range of strategies, loose or tight, aggressive or subtle. Very few aspects of the game are black or white; we swim in a sea of grayscale.
So how do we address the questions above, pounding through our psyche during a losing streak? How do we know what needs to be changed in our play, if there is anything to change at all? If we overreact by doing the wrong things, or are feeling persecuted and downtrodden, poker becomes that much harder to beat. The game is difficult enough as it is.
I’m a firm believer in reviewing hand histories, looking for situations where I could have gotten away from hands, bet more, called less, etc. But I also look for classic symptoms of negative variance, to assure myself I am making the right plays, and I’m not staggeringly, heart-stoppingly unlucky. I’m just running through a bad stretch.
SYMPTOM #1: When I get a monster, nobody else does.
We’ve sat tight at a very loose table, folding our rags to every raise and re-raise, waiting for an opportunity to strike. Finally, here it is…American Airlines in the big blind. Here we go! C’mon, suckers…get those chips flying…wait a second. Where’s everyone going? Why are you all folding? Oh, dang….
SYMPTOM #2: Lose the big flips, win the small ones.
We’re in the money of a tournament with an average-sized stack, about 20 big blinds, looking for opportunities to pick up chips, move up the leaderboard, and seize the chance for a serious payday. We’re dealt AK in the big blind. The cutoff has about 16 big blinds, and makes a pre-flop raise in a classic steal position. We shove, wanting to look like a pure re-steal, so our opponent will call with his A9 or KQ. But he doesn’t have A9 or KQ…he’s got JJ, and we lose our flip. The very next hand, we’re dealt 98 suited, and in a fit of frustration, shove our puny stack against a button raiser, who has 66. This time we flop an 8 and win the hand, but we still only have 9 big blinds.
SYMPTOM #3: Our range assignments are good, but reality is at the wrong end.
After winning our race with 98 v. 66, we’re dealt AJ in the next hand, on the button. The action folds around to the cutoff, who shoves his 12 BB stack. It looks like a steal, obviously. Even the tightest of players should be doing this with no less than QT+, KT+, any ace or any pocket pair. Loose-aggressive MTT players will do this with any two cards. We are way ahead of both ranges, so we call. As it turns out, our opponent has KK, and we’re eliminated from the tournament.
What each symptom has in common is simply bad timing. Not bad luck – we’ve been dealt some good cards, and won an equitable share of the coin flips. Not bad play – at no time did we make any regrettable decisions or bad reads. Just bad timing.
So what can you do about it? Not a lot, at least not directly. You can’t control everyone else’s hole cards, their decisions to bet or fold, or the river card turning a win into a loss. But you can try to keep your head up. Take solace and comfort from the knowledge you’re not necessarily doing anything wrong. The next time you play, the breaks may turn in your favor. The button will have KK when you get AA in the big blind. You’ll flop an ace in that key race which puts you in the chip lead. When you make the hero call with A8, the shove monkey will meekly turn over 86 and you’ll stack his chips next to your own.
If you comb through your hand histories for the “running bad” symptoms, and come up empty, what then? It’s time to get self-critical. If you’re a losing poker player, but you’re not terminally unlucky (nobody is), and not suffering from bad timing…it’s probably your play. Find the leaks and plug them. It’s easy to blame bad beats on bad luck…but if you’re always getting your money in ahead, you’re playing too tight and not giving yourself a chance to get lucky in return. It’s easy to complain you never catch a flop…but you are calling too much and seeing too many flops, leaking chips in early levels, chips crucial for later tournament survival. You may always be getting dominated by the hero who makes a very loose call…but you’re bluffing too much, giving your opponent a reason to assign a range much wider than you’d like.
When you leave the table, you decide what kind of poker player you’ll be when next you play. Our greatest chance for improvement is to use our downtime wisely and objectively. The next time you’re getting crushed over and over, with no…end…in…sight, give yourself a checkup. Take the time to look for symptoms of variancitis. Find your own path to good poker health.
“All of us have bad luck and good luck. The man who persists through the bad luck – who keeps right on going – is the man who is there when the good luck comes – and is ready to receive it.” - Robert Collier
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Comments
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<p>Good article, I have been looking for something like this. I know we all run bad from time to time but plugging leaks ends these bad streaks much quicker. I have a couple of new strategies I plan on implementing tonight and I will post my results on these strategies later.</p>
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2012-05-23 12:39:08
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