Over the past 6 to 9 months there has surfaced a major change in online poker. This is something that is not site sensitive, but is happening on every site I play. Now, more than ever, a “gambling” style is ruling online poker. The amount of “crazy” plays that you see is much higher than ever. You see players willing to risk all of their chips on 5% and 10% hands with surprising regularity. What has taken over is a limit mentality to no limit tourneys. In other words, they want to see all 5 cards and they’re willing to pay any price to see them. <READMORE>

This used to be exclusive to the “donk”. Now you see top players making very questionable plays with very poor hands. A year ago, these plays would be excoriated. Today, they are called triumphs of +EV and odds. Brsavage and Gank (Question for ranked guys) have both posted threads that have been awesome in identifying this and the responses to those threads have had some excellent content. Beanie, in particular, did a great job of pointing out the fact that it is causing more variance. It’s on the point of variance that I want to park for a little while. This is NOT a bad beat blog. Nor is it a poker sites are rigged blog. They are NOT rigged. It is an attempt to explain how much more of a factor variance is in the online game now.

The first factor is an attempt to play a LAG style. We have quite a few accomplished LAG style players in the rankings. People watch accomplished players and try to emulate them. The problem is a total misunderstanding of the “whys” and “hows” of plays made in this style of play. For example: Player A has 86 off in the bb with blinds at 400/800. Player B, who hasn’t played a hand in over 30 hands, in middle position, raises 4x with KK and 28,000 in chips. Player A with 30,000 in chips, calls. The flop comes K67 rainbow. Player A bets 6,400. Player B, hoping that player A has caught a set, triples it to 19,200. Player A goes all in for his remaining 20,400. Player B, of course, puts his last 5,600 in.

Player A’s play used to be rare. Now it is very common on every site. This introduces more variance because of the increased amount of times that situation is played as opposed to 6 months to a year ago. While not scientific in anyway, I would venture to say that this play used to be made 2 out of 10 times by all players and now it’s 8 out of 10. A couple of things to note about Player A’s play here is how willing he is to call the preflop bet, even though this raise came from a tight player. Then raises with nothing but bottom pair with a terrible kicker. He then goes over the top all in when he has no fold equity. He’s also out of position. This is NOT a LAG style of play, it’s a gambling style.

Another factor is the huge increase in range of calling hands. It’s like people aren’t paying attention, because I read posts about possible hand ranges and people assume we’re still in the online arena of 6 months to a year ago. The hands players will CALL with for most or all of their chips is almost limit less. Example #2: Player A is in a middle position with JJ. The blinds are 1000/2000. Player B, in second position, min raises to 4,000. Player A, with 30,000 in chips, goes all in. Everyone folds to player B, who insta calls with a stack of 45,000 chips and a hand of Q10s. This used to be an anomaly, now it happens in every single tourney you play in. Players are now more than willing to gamble with their tourney life, with nothing more than a face card.

I believe this stems from the fact that poker has never had more exposure than it has now. Now there isn’t just ESPN showing poker, there are a whole slew of channels with poker shows. Now you don’t have just one poker school, there are a dozen. There are also multiple poker forums for people to choose from. The predominant philosophy that people see and hear? LAG style of play. Players, many of whom are not students of the game, misread and misinterpret the principles, and the result is simply a gambling style of play. This leads to many more of what we call bad beats.

So what do you do about it? First, don’t let it affect your play. Sometimes you get the shaft end of variance and you simply have to work through it. Poker isn’t about the sprint, but the marathon. Any good marathon runner will tell you that they hit walls along the run where things look very bleak, but they press on. If you’re taking a ton of bad beats, it isn’t your play or the site, it’s variance. The fact that you’re losing may have nothing to do with your play. Does it suck? You better believe it does.

Play other games. I’ve been playing more cash games than I ever have before and doing quite well. Play some more stud or PLO. Introduce more options into your repertoire. Decrease the percentage of your play in mtts. Constantly re evaluate based on results. Then determine how much you should be playing mtts.

I believe this is another phase in the ever evolving world of online tourney poker. As I’ve said before, be a student of the game. Pay close attention to what’s going on around you and adjust accordingly. Play well.</READMORE>