While 2013 saw the historic launch of online poker in Nevada, Delaware, and New Jersey, many analysts believe that other US states are not far behind. California, considered the crown jewel by poker site operators, is one such state where lawmakers are keeping a close eye on developments and preparing to keep pushing i-gaming legislation of their own.

I don’t have any doubt we’ll have legal online poker in California,” Whittier Law School professor and gambling law specialist I. Nelson Rose told SFGate. “Only politics is preventing it.”

Rose’s comment highlights the tug-of-war among the state’s powerful gambling interests, all of which are vying for the biggest piece of the internet gaming pie. Horseracing tracks, brick-and-mortar poker rooms, and tribal casinos are all jockeying to include language most advantageous to their industry in any bill introduced.

According to Rose, the state’s Indian tribes, who wield enormous political influence, believe that legalizing online gaming would reduce revenues to their physical casinos. “The tribes have done a tremendous job of using the wealth generated from gaming to gain political power,” he said.

With that fear in mind, it’s easy to see why any i-gaming legislation will likely allow only poker, while excluding casino table games. “I think there’s a belief among our tribal partners that the internet as a distribution network for gambling products could in some ways cannibalize the brick-and-mortar environment,” Richard Schuetz of the California Gambling Control Commission told OPReport.

“I think they see it as a potential threat, and, as such, because the tribes have very much woven themselves into the fabric of our political tapestry, they can control the debate somewhat,” he said.

Over the last three years, several bills have been introduced, but failed to pass through the state’s legislature. Another, introduced by Sen. Lou Correa and numbered SB 678, was introduced last year, but will be delayed for discussion until this year’s legislative session picks back up on January 6. That bill would allow legalized intrastate online poker and exclude house casino games, the horseracing industry, and out-of-state casino operators.

Setbacks aside, many believe it’s only a matter of time before the state’s key interests settle their differences and come to an agreement. John Pappas (pictured), Executive Director of the Poker Players Alliance, stated that he believed an online poker bill would be passed as early as the start of this year. “I would be very surprised if there wasn’t a bill that went through the full process by the end of January or middle of February in 2014 in California,” he told CalvinAyre last September.

Boasting a population of 38 million, California would not need to rely on interstate compacts in order to create a viable pool of poker players. One recent study conducted by PokerScout and the research institution Academicon claimed that the market could generate up to $263 million in its first year of legalization. By analyzing data from 2009 and 2010, PokerScout and Academicon found that California players accounted for 16% of US revenue and 4% of online poker revenue worldwide.

Furthermore, researchers believe that in a legal market, that figure would rise even higher. “Under regulation, online poker is expected to grow well beyond its previous peak,” said Professor Kahlil Philander, one of the study’s authors.

For his part, Rose believed that the state’s budget crisis will drive it to legalize poker to replenish government coffers. He believed that the increased tax revenue the industry offers will be irresistible to politicians running on the 2014 campaign trail. He predicted that the state will legalize some form of online poker by 2015.

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