Sup
Theres is one subject I want to cover in this post, and that is pocket pairs 22-99 in any position. I have noticed that overplaying these hands is (was) a huge leak in my game and is a huge leak in the game of many of my opponents. I must say that I've been playing poker on and off since 2001 and in my earliest days I've had insights into the game the values of which I have only recently begun to apply to my gameprofitably. One such insigt was that pocket pairs provide you with a false sense of security, I remember saying these words out loud to a buddy of mine at a local card club one night after what must have been a loss with a hand I can probably guess, oh, about 1 in 8 times. (22-99, if you're really high or slow). I started playing seriosuly online about 2 years ago and the the next time i specifically remember beating myself up over overplaying a medium pocket pair was in the 750k of Full Tilt about a year ago. I lost the hand when I had made a standard raise from UTG w 77 and got called by the SB, the flop fell 6 high and I felt pretty good when he checked to me so I fired a standard CBet for about 1/2+ the pot and got flat called. The turn paired the board and I bet again (closer to 2/3 of the pot this time) after being checked to, when the villain check- raised me all-in I knew I was in bad shape but by that time I had put close to 2/3 of my stack into the pot and I had an overpair with a gutshot, and so I lost to AA. I'm sure you can recant a similar story if youve played enough poker and can understand what I mean by overplaying small and middle pocket pairs (SMPP's) Often you are the aggressor or the flop comes below your pocket pair, sometimes you have a flush or a straight draw, sometimes both. Regardless of these factors the only two factors that you should consider IMMEDIATELY after being dealt SMPP is A)your chip stack relative to the blinds B)if there is a raise, what proportion of your stack is equal to the raise you have to call to see the flop (1/2, 1/10, 1/100... etc). If there is no B) consider only A). Dan Harrington writes in his second volume on tournament strategy, that the number of chips one should have if one is calling a bet/raise preflop should be AT LEAST 20 times the bet. That means that if the blinds are 200/400 and you have 6400 in chips you need about 1600 more chips to justify your MERE CALL of the blinds preflop with a hand like 88 in early position. Now you might say to me, hey I've seen you play you don't fold pocket pairs when you have less than 20 times the preflop bet! And you're right I'm usually going all in with them preflop in an attemp to take down the blinds. I WOULD NEVER LIMP to try to catch a set with less than a 20BB stack. I would also never call a raise that would force me to commit more than 1/20th of my stack in the hopes of catching a set. One might say that this is way too tight and that im not maximizing the value of my small sets by either going all in preflop or folding, and yes I guess this is true, but there are only maybe 2 hands I would play for value (AA,KK) when I have less than 20BBs. The fact of the matter is that once you have reached this pitiful level in the tournament, you're not even playing poker anymore, you're playing a game of intimidation and that has its own rules and strategy. As for getting back to our subject on SMPP's, it is a widely known fact that the odds of catching a set are approximately 1:8 and this is often misinterpreted as the ratio of chips one should have in their stack relative to amount one has to call to see the flop for set odds. NOT SO! For one you not going to get paid 100% of the time you catch your
set, secondly you might wind up with the 2nd best hand anyway even after you hit your set and this will most likely lose you your whole stack. Another issue to consider is whether or not you are closing the action preflop, because if you aren't you can never be sure that the bet you are calling now will not be raised and invalidate the ratio. Now although it is true that a lot of times when you are playing a SMPP you will be up against two overcards, and technically you are ahead of those hands preflop by a couple of percent. However, there is approx a 50% chance of a queen king or an ace falling on the flop a 50%+ chance of a ten, queen, king or ace, 55%+ of a 9,10,J,K or A on the flop and so on. Basically most of the time you play and SMPP you are going to have to play it on a flop that contains overcards, which might or might not have hit your opponent. Unless you are Stu Ungar you are going to have a hard time accurately distinguishing when your opponent hit the flop, hit a draw, or missed everything but is a stubborn donkey whos going to hit the Ace on the river no matter what you do. This is especially true for the online environment where you lack physical reads. Overall analysis: it is not a good flop if it contains an overcard and theres is action from your opponent. (As a side-note: I must say that some of the biggest pots I've won were with SMPP's on overcard flops when I had a dead read on the player, these are exceptions, and a s ageneral rule I fold to any action on an overcard flop when I have a SMPP. Always follow your reads first though)
Ok, so
those flops are bad, which would lead you to believe that flops containing all undercards are probable safe, right? Well probably not if you read the story above, and this is what I would say is the greatest single leak in regard to overplaying these dangerous hands. These flops appear safe and they sometimes are, the only problem is, when they're safe you win a small pot, when they're not you usually lose a big one. What I mean by this is, lets say you have our favorite hockey sticks, you're in the HJ and you raise 3x on a 60bb stack, the SB a tricky, good player on a smilar stack, flat calls, the flop comes down 653x giving you an overpair and a gutshot to what you have to assume would be the nuts, plus you also have 2 outs for a set (that would make a straight but give you a redraw, if it was on the turn.... etc) the SB checks to you and you bet the standard 55%, and get raised 2.5x your bet giving you about 3.25:1 odds. This is where most people make the mistake of either calling or reraising (all in or not). This is still a mistake even if the player is not so tricky, and you didnt raise preflop, or he led out into you on the flop. What you HAVE TO consider is what his hand could be or how it could've been improved, or threatened by that flop so that he would put you to a decision. Most of the time you will come to the realization that you are probably beat. If you raised preflop and got called you have to assume that the caller either called you with Ax or a PP (the possibilities of course much wider than this and you should use your information on a player to ascertain his range of hands, however the two aforementioned options are the most common place amongst players of unknown tight/looseness). In this case as it were with our 77 we would not really be much of a favorite against any hand that would
raise us on the flop on a board of 653x unless it was specifically 44, A7 or a complete bluff (such as overcards, which by the way still have around a 30% chance of drawing out on you on the turn and the river). The hands that you are going to get action from on that flop will usually be pocket pairs either below or above your 77 and you are losing to all but 2 of the 13 pocket pairs ever made. After some consideration it should be apparent that these "safe" flops aren't. If you are getting any sort of action from an opponent and so one should ask, what the hell AM I really looking for with a SMPP? the answer is fairly obvious: a Set!
I cannot begin to tell you how much middle ground you place youself in if you begin/continue to play SMPP's on flops where you haven't caught a set and you committed less than 5% of your stack to the pot preflop (meaning you were in the hand to catch a set, not to play the value of your hand, as I mentioned before, this
post applies to SMPP's on stacks of over 20BBs or 20x the preflop raise). Yes if you follow this advice to a T you will invariably wind up folding the best hand some of the time, but most of the time you will be making the correct decision based on ranges, stack sizes and the odds the pot will be offering you.
I feel as if I should wrap this up with a disclaimer, there is an age old adage about poker questions, it says that the answer always begins with the words, IT DEPENDS, I want to emphasize this, because every situation you will encounter will be unique and will require a unique course of action, after 100,000's of hands you might find yourself in the same "unique" situation multiple times and you will instinctively know what to do because you've already been there before. Until that time, or in situations where the answer isnt obvious (i.e. marginal situations) I highly suggest you follow the guidelines that dictate a more tight/conservative approach when playing SMPP's. While you are playing in this mode you should observe every hand you are not involved in to try to narrow down your opponents ranges to as few hands as possible. Once this becomes routine for you, you should be able to open up your game and turn some marginal spots into clear cut +EV situations. One example: You're dealt 99 on the button, everyone folds you make it 2.5x on a 40BB stack (sure its not 1/20th but you're not exactly set mining, you have the 5th best hand in the best position). The SB folds and the BB calls. You have a read on the BB, you know he is aggressive and a little on the loose side and would rerasie you with any pair/A8+ but call you with any two high cards or an A7-. The flop comes down A82x and he checks. Now before you fire out a CBet, pause and use your read, you know he's loose aggressive so his range is pretty wide, however you can take the pairs out of the equation and only concern yourself with two highcards or an ace. The fact that he checked the flop suggests that he did not hit the ace (if the flop has a flush draw on it it is even more reason to suspect he does not have an ace, since a lot of people find it very difficult to check top pair on a flop that contains a flush draw, even heads up) so if you bet now he will either most likely fold, or checkraise you in the case that he either caught 2 pair or decided to slowplay an ace. In this situation I would check about 90% of the time in an attempt to induce a call on a turn that I deem safe for me. If the turn pairs the board, I will usually
have a much easier time getting action, because if the board didnt
improve then theoritcally neither did my hand, and since I did not Cbet
the flop, the board must not have improved my hand. If the turn falls a safe card that does not pair the board such as 3-7 I will bet if checked to and call/raise based on my read if bet into. I feel I need to mention a scenario such as this to demonstrate the fact that although I am a preacher and practioner of very tight/conservative
SMPP play, there are times when all of that goes out of the window and your position, read, stack and flop texture will determine your action, not your cards.

Well thats about all the rant I have in me for now, if you like it visit my site @ luckygenius.com

Peace
dinkydoofus