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Thoughts on going Pro (Part 1)

By: m4tth3w1
Published: Nov 22nd, 2009
There are always a bunch of threads on P5s PD about going pro. It's certainly a dream of mine, even though I have a steady job, owe monthly payments on the mortgage and have a small social life to maintain.

I didn't want to invade other people's threads since this blog post will certainly benefit me more than anyone that happens to stumble across it. I do hope it will strike a few chords with some though.

Here's my situation (Monetary values in GBP as it's obviously my native currency but I'll also convert to USD since it is indisputably the currency of poker):

I am a 23 year old male living in the United Kingdom with an Economics degree from the University of Nottingham. I work for a large publisher as a systems support analyst (team leader).
  1. All told I currently earn ~£30K [~$49.5K] per annum pre-tax and other deductions.
  2. Monthly this comes down to ~£2500/month [$4125]
  3. From this I then pay Income tax and National Insurance (~£550 [$910])
  4. As well as student loan repayments (~£100 [~$165])
  5. Finally I pay into a company pension (~£120) to which the company adds (~£380) totalling ~£500 (~$825).
  6. This gives me a post deduction total of ~£1730/month [$2855] ~£20760/yr [~$34250]
  7. After deductions this equates to an hourly wage of ~£13/hr [~$21.5] that I get cash in my pocket at the end of the month.
There are some important notes to this though:

A) Obviously there are some inconsistencies due to rounding but the figures are close enough
B) I am not going to concern myself with my expenditures since if I were to seriously consider going pro I would need to at least earn my current monthly wage (long run obviously) for me to consider it as this current level easily covers all my commitments.
C) If I were to go Pro 3. and 4. would no longer apply since I would not need to pay tax nor student loan repayments based on an income based on gambling.
D) RE: 5. I would want to make plans for a 'pension' of sorts of my own so would probably want to start saving/ investing to this end.
E) I currently work 35 hours a week and will be working on this number of hours for this exercise even though I know I would play more as a pro. I'll round this to 150 hours per month.

With all that in mind I get a total of
<blockquote><blockquote>post deduction income + pension requirements
£1730 + £500 = ~£2230 [~$3680]
</blockquote></blockquote>that I would want (need) to earn each month if I were to go pro and maintain my current level of existence.

So what do I need to do to achieve this?

Bearing in mind that I am (for the most part) a NLHE cash game player and if I were to go pro I would ideally play solely cash, currently I play Sngs and MTTs occassionally but have to concede that I am -EV in these formats! I am going to consider how much it would take to make these returns on average at varying limits and rates of return. I'll also discount Rakeback and bonuses as I think I would rather count those as added cash on top.

Returns are based on actual BBs not PTBB so these are extremely conservative

Bankroll $5000
0.5/1 = 3680 BB @ 1BB/100 requires 368,000 hands per month
using 60 hands per hour @ 1table = 6134 hours
using 60 hands per hour @ 4tables = 1533 hours
To achieve 150 hours per month would require 41tabling

0.5/1 = 3680 BB @ 3BB/100 requires 122,667 hands per month
using 60 hands per hour @ 1table = 2045 hours
using 60 hands per hour @ 4tables = 512 hours
To achieve 150 hours per month would require 14tabling

Bankroll $10,000
1/2 = 1840 BB @ 1BB/100 requires 184,000 hands per month
using 60 hands per hour @ 1table = 3067 hours
using 60 hands per hour @ 4tables = 767 hours
To achieve 150 hours per month would require 21tabling

1/2 = 1840 BB @ 3BB/100 requires 61,334 hands per month
using 60 hands per hour @ 1table = 1023 hours
using 60 hands per hour @ 4tables = 256 hours
To achieve 150 hours per month would require 7tabling

Bankroll $20,000
2/4 = 1840 BB @ 1BB/100 requires 92,000 hands per month
using 60 hands per hour @ 1table = 1534 hours
using 60 hands per hour @ 4tables = 384 hours
To achieve 150 hours per month would require 11tabling

2/4 = 1840 BB @ 3BB/100 requires 30,667 hands per month
using 60 hands per hour @ 1table = 512 hours
using 60 hands per hour @ 4tables = 128 hours
To achieve 150 hours per month would require 4tabling

I'm fairly surprised at what the figures turn up here. It seems that having a $10,000 bankroll and grinding 8 tables of 1/2 at 3BB/100 hands would be sufficient to replace my current income without increasing my workload (something which I would not be entirely averse to doing).

Bear in mind that this is all based on my own situation and your considerations for your own scenario should be considered and the figures revised accordingly. All in all though this seems quite exciting stuff. However, there are other considerations which I hope to introduce and investigate in part 2. If I receive any interest I'll pull together a spreadsheet that will allow you to plug and play with your own numbers so we can all turn pro in 2010. I'll even try and adapt it for SnG and MTT players.

Until then good luck at the tables,
m4tth3w1

    Comments

    1. About your assumption for Assumption C...exactly why do you think you will not need to pay income tax or loans? Unless your school is insane, you'll keep getting an interest hit on any loans you don't pay, and they'll come after your funds eventually.

      You also have a pretty sweet pension, that even if you do set aside some for saving, you will not get anyone to match 300% of what you put aside! It will all be on you, and trust me, you will want to save that much a month.

      You are also forfeiting any future raises ( I assume you expect some sort of annual raise?)

      Just some things to consider
    2. Thanks for your comments miami_jesse.

      Because I live in the UK I am not required to pay taxes on winnings from gambling. Also my student loan works slightly differently from the way it sounds like it works in the US and I only need to repay this if I am employed and earn over £15K per year. Which technically as a professional gambler I would not be.

      As for forfeiting future raises and career progression these were a couple of the considerations I wanted to discuss in part 2 but it is good that someone has raised the same concerns here.

      Thanks again
     

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