Part 2 of Folding...

3/5 game. MP has $1000, and I cover. MP raises to 25, button calls the 25, I call 25 out of the small blind with K6 suited, and BB calls as well. Flop comes KJ6 rainbow. I check, BB checks, MP bets 45, button folds, and I check raise to 145. Fold, fold, and MP thinks for a bit and calls. The turn is offsuit 7. I bet 220, MP thinks for at least 2-3 minutes and raises to 500. At the time that I bet 220 he had 800 behind, so the raise to 500 left him with 300.

My read on MP was that he was a competent, fine player. He was late 20's, somewhat aggressive in spots that deemed it. This was a 3/5 main game, and I had recently been moved so I didn't have that detailed of a read on MP, but a quick cold read and the few hands I saw I believe were enough. If I was not playing well, this would be an auto shove and I would probably just lose and rebuy. But, at the time this hand was played I was playing really really well, and was able to reason through the fold in the moment.

To me, the scariest part of MP's line is the raise to 500. How can he put 145 on the flop, 500 on the turn (and $500 over my $220), and he leave himself 300 dollars more. One of two things is happening - either he's trying to sucker me in by making it only 280 more (by the way I'm calling 280 into 1110 which is 4:1), or he's making some psycho bluff, but is leaving 300 dollars behind so he doesn't fully go broke. OK, sorry, three things - he could be making some psycho semi-bluff with Q10. Let's examine the straight bluff possibility first. If I were to draw up a scenario where this guy would be bluffing on the turn, it would probably be a bet of 220, then a shove for 800 total. That makes it 580 more to me, and would really put the pressure on me with the hand I have. I'm not sure if I can call. But, the raise to 500 looks even scarier to me. Instead of applying pressure to force a tough decision, it tries to make my decision easier by saying, "Please call me!!" The raise to 500 is a big bet in this game. Not only is there not a whole lot of bluffing to begin with, I have rarely ever seen normal 3/5 players put in 500 dollars on a bluff. It just doesn't happen. So the idea of MP bluffing, and leaving himself with 300 in case I catch him is ludicrous.

The next part of MP's range is a semi-bluff with Q10. I think if MP had Q10 on the turn, which is definitely a pretty reasonable part of his range, he would shove for 800 over my bet of 220. There's no way someone can raise to 500 giving me crazy odds with just a straight draw, and then find a way to bet 300 or go check, check on the river when the draw misses. That's just stupid. There's no payoff possible because you only have 300 more, and it gives me amazing odds to call with whatever I have. In fact, the semi-bluff shove I think is a pretty good play with Q10, but since the guy raised to 500 I think we can entirely rule Q10 out of his range here. Another possibility that is worth discussing is a 2-pair hand that we beat, such that the raise to 500 is still for value, but somehow we are ahead. I don't think MP can ever do this with 76, J6, or J7. J7 and 76 are going to be hard pressed to get to the turn because I made it 100 more on the flop, and I doubt middle or bottom pair would call 100 more. Do we think MP opened to 25 with J6? Doubtful. Also, do we think MP would make it 500 on the turn with J6? What could we possibly call with that J6 beats? If MP somehow were able to find J6 on this turn action, I think my bet of 220 (a pretty large bet in and of itself) would be scary enough that he could only call with J6. If he likes to gamble, maybe he can shove J6. But I just don't see him making it 500 with any of these weaker 2-pair hands. Remember, I am relatively new to this game so I don't have any sort of a horrible image.

So, the last part of MP's range is KJ for top 2, and JJ for a set. I am going to discount KK or 66 from MP's range because since I have a king and a 6 combinatorically it's really hard for him to have the other 2 kings or 2 6's to have those sets. Are both of these hands (KJ and JJ) raisable to 25 preflop? Yes. Would he c-bet 45 into about 100 with either of those hands? Yes. Would he call my check raise of 100 more with either of those hands? Yes. He might also throw in a reraise to 400 or shove, but I think he might call in position to give me another chance to bet at it, and let a safe card come on the turn. After I bet 220, can be make it 500 with either of those hands? The point is a resounding yes. Now, all of a sudden giving me 3:1 makes a lot of sense. 280 more is a large number to call, but into this pot it seems inviting - there's a lot of money out there. This guy really wants a call. Then, when he shoves the last 300 on the river I would really have to call getting something like 5.5:1. I don't really think it matters whether he has JJ or KJ, but it just seems really apparent to me that this guy has exactly that.

I said earlier that when I played this hand live I was playing very well, and that I folded. I actually made a short speech about being really strong, told him I thought he had exactly KJ and that I was folding K6 (didn't show it, but was honest). I was hoping he would oblige and show that I was right. I was, he did, and he showed exactly KJ. Just goes to show you that in live cash NL people really do have it most of the times they represent having it, and that you can really pay attention to the numbers in the bet amount to gain huge amounts of information. If he had shoved for the 800, I'm not sure if I would have called but I think there's a good chance I would have. I bet the 220 thinking I was way ahead, and the shove probably would not have set off as many alarm bells. So, always be thinking about your bet sizing!