I remember 5 years ago when I logged into my PartyPoker account, only
to be welcomed with a message saying, "because of the 2006 Unlawful
Internet Gambling Act passed by President Bush, Party Poker will no
longer service U.S Citizens". At that moment, I thought it was over.
I remember 5 months ago, when the Government wanted to institute a
12-18 month "blackout period", and again, many people thought it was
over. Sadly, this past month, on Black Friday, we actually might have
actually witnessed the end of Full Tilt and Pokerstars for American
citizens, but I refuse to believe that we are done with online poker
altogether.
I've heard numbers as glaring as over 10 million Americans play online
poker. With a number that staggering, I can't imagine we won't find a
way to play poker online again in the near future. I would like to
think, that the U.S government has had a plan all along, and that when
they had previously considered regulating/taxing online poker, that
the 12-18 month blackout period, would be used to "even the playing
field" for the new American sites against FTP/Stars/UB, and what do ya
know, they have completely chopped a leg out from under each of those
sites, doing essentially, just that. Now that the three leading sites
are out of the way, it will leave a massive player pool of Americans
ready to play, with absolutely no site to play on. I hope that the
government will see this opportunity (especially in a time where we
are sporting a $15 trillion national debt and threatening to halt the
federal government over a few billion dollars in the budget) and seize
it by coming in, regulating/taxing and providing online poker to all
Americans. Sadly, I doubt we will be able to play against people from
other countries again (this is pure speculation), but I imagine the
new players flocking to the American sites will more than makeup for
this (picture ESPN with PartyPoker commercials running all day/night),
it'd be like the golden era of fish from PartyPoker of 5-7 years ago,
but even better perhaps. Not only will we likely not be able to play
against our international friends, but I also doubt we will ever be
able to play on Full Tilt/Pokerstars/UB(unless you move out of the
US). This is disappointing of course, but again the prospect of
perhaps Partypoker returning to the US, as well as a Harrah's or ESPN
based site maybe, operating in a justly, regulated US based market, we
could see online poker return for us USA players in a great way.
We also have to recognize that the status quo was just not
maintainable, as many players recognized 5 months ago at the rumored
blackout period. While the immediate time without being able to play
would have been difficult, we were not going to be able to operate another
5-10 years with middle men payment processors who weren't reliable, as
well as an ambiguous law saying playing is legal, but banks processing
our wires for gambling is illegal (?) It was all bound to end poorly
at some point, but I think that people will realize that US regulation
will be mutually beneficial for all, and a system with clear
rules/laws will be put into place, and we will finally be able to play
100% legally one day (hopefully!) It also would be a good time for
the federal government to analyze the nations' stance here, and in
particular assess the hypocrisy of how the state of Washington makes
playing online poker a felony, while Washington D.C allows online
gambling and provides the sites to people! It all adds to the
confusion on the subject in a nationwide legality aspect.
Maybe I am just being overly optimistic, but I think when several
million Americans all want something badly enough, they will find a
way (not to mention the $10 billion or so yearly tax revenue the
federal gov't could get if they taxed/regulated online poker!)
Hopefully an intelligent bill gets presented before Congress in the
next couple of years that can convince the conservative opposition
that playing online poker is a civil liberty that should not be
stripped of American citizens, and not only is it unjust to prevent us
from playing, they would be forfeiting obscene amounts of money that
they could be earning from regulation in a time when our country needs
it most. Give it a couple years (I don't see it being much sooner due
to the upcoming election year) but eventually this will be addressed
and hopefully the lawmakers will see that taxing/regulating online
poker in the US is a win-win situation for everyone.
In the meantime, I am gonna continue to play live as much as possible,
and focus on coaching my non-US based students in my free time (PM me
if you are interested in coaching). I just finished playing in the WPT
Hard Rock Hollywood event last week, which I will write about in my
next blog. Aside from that, I am looking forward to the WSOP next
month, and have a nice handful of events that I am going to be playing
(most excited for the 10k 6 max and the Main Event).
Obviously Black Friday was very rough for us all in different ways,
and sadly, many people won't be able to recover. I wish the best of
luck to everyone, especially those grinders who had particular hourly
expectations that are likely already forced into the new job hunt.
Have faith everyone, I really truly think we will find a way, and
online poker will return for us one day. Until then, good luck with
your other endeavors, stay sharp with your game, study the game
online, and test out those local cash games that we never dared enter
before :)
I remember seeing one quote the evening of Black Friday on Facebook
from Mement_Mori that I really liked and wanted to close with (Memo
shouldn't mind me using it since he has all the MTTs to himself now :)
"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end.
But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
- Sir Winston Churchill
Good luck everybody,
Grayson