dragken = 31/14 54hs AGG FREQ. 33% 43hs - so opening/calling a fairly wide ranges pre, but not your average 30/9 station.
This post examines both turn and river play. Turn play is disclosed, river play is not.
I donk the flop to build a pot on a dry board. I call off the guy with 7bbs if he shoves. Dragken limped pre, so I think his range when he raises is rarely a set (I feel like he is raising 66/88s), sometimes a two pair, top pair weak kicker, and flush draws with overs and re-draws (JTs, JQs). Not too many FDs he would raise here, we have the nut draw and he would likely raise KQs pre.
If we look at his bet sizing, it's quite a small raise - he really doesn't want me to fold - which makes me think more that he actually has a big hand here, though I don't if he would play FDs and TP differently. My guess is that he would raise them bigger.
When we hit on the turn, I checked back not to scare off his weaker holdings and to induce some action from him. Thinking about it, betting here is also ok, he'll raise worse if he hit, and he might come along with with 2nd pair. Thoughts here?
Dragken then checks, which either means he hit and doesn't want to scare me off, or he's now put off betting himself. My guess is that if he had hit on the turn, he's would be putting in some kind of value bet. Thoughts on turn play?
The river pairs the board.
I feel like check/raising is turning our hand into a bluff, as given the villains line, I don't expect us to get called by worse too often.
I don't mind check/calling - sometimes he will just fold to a river lead, and if we check, maybe he thinks J8 is good or turns his hand into a bluff.
IF we do lead and get shoved over, can we fold?
pokerstars Hand #82616715396: Tournament #577808342, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (50/100) - 2012/06/29 16:12:25 WET [2012/06/29 11:12:25 ET]
Table '577808342 29' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: dragken (6076 in chips)
Seat 2: vissass (683 in chips)
Seat 3: pele x8 (440 in chips)
Seat 4: karkos 0 (8362 in chips)
Seat 5: Hankmuth (4070 in chips)
Seat 6: Mércurial (7132 in chips)
Seat 7: 8VPV8 (3270 in chips)
Seat 8: sgt-dude75 (5058 in chips)
Seat 9: LII72 (2889 in chips)
dragken: posts the ante 10
vissass: posts the ante 10
pele x8: posts the ante 10
karkos 0: posts the ante 10
Hankmuth: posts the ante 10
Mércurial: posts the ante 10
8VPV8: posts the ante 10
sgt-dude75: posts the ante 10
LII72: posts the ante 10
Hankmuth: posts small blind 50
Mércurial: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mércurial [9h Ah]
dragken: calls 100
vissass: calls 100
pele x8: folds
karkos 0: folds
Hankmuth: calls 50
*** FLOP *** [2h 6h 8d]
Mércurial: bets 245
dragken: raises 355 to 600
vissass: calls 573 and is all-in
Mércurial: calls 355
*** TURN *** [2h 6h 8d] [Th]
*** RIVER *** [2h 6h 8d Th] [6d]
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