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expected/projected ROI for Merge SNGS..?

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  1. bwalz bwalz is offline

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    Feb 22nd, 2012 (2/22/2012 6:57pm)

    Ok, this is not a bad beat thread. I'm looking to find what the top ROI's are for Merge sngs, specifically 6 & 10 man 5.50$ & 11$ games but not the super turbo structure just turbo and reg.. I played on bodog late last year before the rebranding and had 10% over 2500+ games and somehow made a SS leader board for 2012 in a little category, so I kind of know what I'm doing and talking about.. I have played almost 400 games on merge this month, went well initially and then rapid downswing and gap between red & green lines on the graph. I understand variance although not a fan of it. I wouldn't be so concerned if it weren't for the fact that I signed up for team moshman this month basically for structure, discipline and improvement and they kicked me off after a week (which wound up better anyway) because the coach I was working with (cool guy, still very helpful) tried to change things to my game I didn't want to and wanted to address my self-known weak spots later down the road. My results went way down, I then questioned his game theory, program for me and tried to have constructive discussion about the kind of opponents in the games I play, most opponents were down right awful. They ended the contract and coaching which was fine w me, interesting part is nobody there is beating the games by much either unless they all have SS profiles locked and are keeping it to themselves..? According to the SS leaderboards as of today there's only 2 guys from merge on top 20, best roi is 6%. I have decent samples with both of these guys and the aren't top caliber players, or close IMO just high volume. I don't have the SS subscription so I'm limited to 5 lookups per day and I can't find anything for solid stats.

    Is anybody beating these at 10% or over after 500+ in 2012? If not, why not? Games are really weak from what I have seen, and the structure is absolutely beatable as opposed to the 6 man supers which are questionable longterm IMO..

    I'm trying to decide if it's even worth continuing on with these games or just switch to the supers at a higher volume and buy in and try to break even and just profit through rewards program etc... I have no prob with playing another couple hundred or so and waiting for the supposed upswing from variance that I should be due theoretically speaking here soon, but if nobody in the world is beating them by more than 6% that's gross and a waste of time IMO for that game structure. Any info or feedback would be greatly appreciated thanks.
    Edited By: bwalz Feb 24th, 2012 at 05:03 PM
  2. wackyJaxon wackyJaxon is offline Admin X

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    Feb 22nd, 2012 (2/22/2012 7:30pm) in reply to bwalz

    I have had more than one friend playing on Merge tell me that the ROI they are achieving on Merge is less than what they had on stars or FTP. I know the rake in some instances is a bit higher than Stars, which is a contributing factor, but surprised when I find out players I consider to be super solid in SNGs to be running at a 1% or less ROI on Merge. Although I do not currently play on Merge myself, I am also curious to know if anyone is just crushing Merge STTs over any significant sample size.
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  3. boneralert boneralert is offline

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    Feb 22nd, 2012 (2/22/2012 7:43pm) in reply to wackyJaxon

    I wouldnt be surprise if the edges were pretty thin. I have only played a handful of non-super turbo SnGs on Merge and the fields werent great but this was exclusively at $10 or under stakes.

    I also am curious about volume being an issue. Seems like you are going to have a hard time regging for enough tourneys to get that going in any kind of meaningful way, especially if you are counting on max-tiering whatever VIP plan your skin has, and having this make up a good chunk of your profitability.
     
  4. yjbrewer yjbrewer is offline

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    Feb 22nd, 2012 (2/22/2012 7:48pm) in reply to boneralert

    I just started playing on there. I've played around 40 DoNs at 5 level and at 41%. I find those to be easier along with the bounty sngs. I think the bounties will help with the ROI. I don't know how quickly the higher levels fill up. Gl though.
  5. bwalz bwalz is offline

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    Feb 22nd, 2012 (2/22/2012 7:48pm) in reply to boneralert

     
    Originally Posted by boneralert View Post

    I wouldnt be surprise if the edges were pretty thin. I have only played a handful of non-super turbo SnGs on Merge and the fields werent great but this was exclusively at $10 or under stakes.

    I also am curious about volume being an issue. Seems like you are going to have a hard time regging for enough tourneys to get that going in any kind of meaningful way, especially if you are counting on max-tiering whatever VIP plan your skin has, and having this make up a good chunk of your profitability.

    Why would the margin be thin with "not great" fields, isn't this a contradiction, shouldn't that make the exact opposite for the roi?

    I have a tagged account with rake back that's no longer available so that'd b the plan.
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  6. boneralert boneralert is offline

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    Feb 22nd, 2012 (2/22/2012 7:57pm) in reply to bwalz

     
    Originally Posted by bwalz View Post

    Why would the margin be thin with "not great" fields, isn't this a contradiction, shouldn't that make the exact opposite for the roi?

    I have a tagged account with rake back that's no longer available so that'd b the plan.

    Sorry, those were just two independent thoughts, wasn't trying to connect the two. My experience was weak fields, but I wouldnt extrapolate this out to suggest that these games would naturally be profitable as a result. I saw some insanely bad play in the $5 DoNs for instance. But this wasnt a huge sample size.

    I wouldnt be surprised if there were also more good regs playing at stakes well below where they normally would simply beause theyll take whats available. Or maybe the structure makes these harder to beat.
     
  7. bwalz bwalz is offline

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    Feb 24th, 2012 (2/24/2012 4:39pm) in reply to boneralert

    OK a few solid stats have been located for Merge sngs, upwards of 15% roi and 1500 games so some people are beating them, which is good to know!
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  8. thearthurdog thearthurdog is offline

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    Feb 25th, 2012 (2/25/2012 12:30am) in reply to bwalz

    1500 games is not really a meaningful sample and 15% is SMOKING HOT for STTs - so I don't know if these stats are worthwhile.
  9. bwalz bwalz is offline

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    Feb 25th, 2012 (2/25/2012 12:46am) in reply to thearthurdog

    What do you think is a meaningful sample for turbo & reg blind structure games, 5k or? Unless things changed from a year ago, 15% is doable for top level guys IMO.
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  10. Zog Buster Zog Buster is offline

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    Feb 27th, 2012 (2/27/2012 3:58am) in reply to bwalz

    I am running at 100% ROI.....

    ....I signed up at Carbon recently and started playing the Fun Steps..... Won $20 so far, in six weeks, and I am hoping to build a decent starting bankroll to play the $2.20 SNGS and beyond.

    Won nine Fun Step finals in one week! Anyone beat that?
    Edited By: Zog Buster Feb 27th, 2012 at 04:00 AM
  11. bwalz bwalz is offline

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    Feb 27th, 2012 (2/27/2012 5:38am) in reply to Zog Buster

    Congrats well done! Gl & keep it up! I'm not sure about freeroll structure or expectation lol I talking was about mid-high stakes as they're categorized by the network. (I don't consider 5-10$ games mid stakes)
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  12. TheOverSeasScam TheOverSeasScam is offline

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    Feb 27th, 2012 (2/27/2012 7:01pm) in reply to bwalz

    I have been playing DoNs since black friday on Merge...I was around 8% on stars playing mainly 50/50s and DoNs (when they had them)... I had about 11,000 tournies recorded on Stars...Since joing Merge on black friday I have recorded a little over 12k DoNs and am showing a 5% roi with an avg buy in of 12$ on sharkscope...Imo the higher rake is responsible for the dip in roi...Also if you sharkscope the stats on the regs at the $20+ limit (at least in DoNs) you wont find anyone over about 5%.
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