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Talk about runner runner, Golf bad beat story

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  1. shakhtar shakhtar is offline

    NY
    United States

    Posts: 176
    Joined: May 11

    Aug 20th, 2012 (8/20/2012 1:40am)

    Long story short, I have $50 on Michael Allen to win the Dicks Sporting Goods Open at 22-1. Michael Allen (for those that don't know, one of the top 10 senior golfers) is in the clubhouse as the leader at -13. The ONLY player left that can tie him is sizing up a 30 foot birdie putt (with a left to right break)to tie on the 18th green. That player is Willie Wood, an unknown journeyman who isnt even on the tour,and got into the tournament via a Monday qualifier at a local course.

    So, as a gambler, I quickly try to determine what my equity is. I figure that putt is made at best around 1 time every 20 chances, and if Wood by some miracle makes the putt, he would be at best 40% to beat the much better Allen in a playoff. So 5% x 40% means the chances of me losing at this point is 2%. I have 98% equity on my bet.

    Naturally, the 30 foot putt dies in the cup, and Wood wins the playoff on the first hole of sudden death.

    As much as the $1100 suddenly going poof was a bit hard to take, I thought about what a life changing moment this was for Willie Wood and I suddenly didn't feel so bad. Here's a guy who has no status on a tour, had to qualify on a Monday to finish top 3 out of 75 golfers trying to qualify, then he had to beat one of the best senior PGA fields of the year. A 2,000-1 chance at best. Now, not only did he just win $270,000, but he gets a tour spot for 2 years which he can now play on the Senior tour and compete and make a living. A truly life changing story.

    Why am I telling this story on a poker forum? Two reasons. One, never forget variance is brutal sometime, and those 98% favorites will lose from time to time, and Two, never be afraid to take a shot at glory because even a journeyman can have his day in the sun with a lot of hard work and some luck.
  2. The Baby Bull The Baby Bull is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

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    Aug 20th, 2012 (8/20/2012 2:17am) in reply to shakhtar

    Like it
     
  3. leeroydafish leeroydafish is offline

    Melbourne
    Australia

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    Aug 20th, 2012 (8/20/2012 3:21am) in reply to The Baby Bull

    Let me apply this to several things getting me down right now and congratulate you in a week.
    Awesome story!
  4. z06fanatic z06fanatic is offline

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    Aug 20th, 2012 (8/20/2012 5:32am) in reply to leeroydafish

    so you complain about the guy making his putt but dont acknowledge how lucky u were to get to that point given he was 22/1 - nice!
    2
  5. AFink93 AFink93 is offline

    Norwich, CT
    United States

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    Aug 20th, 2012 (8/20/2012 6:58am) in reply to z06fanatic

    If he is a pro golfer. Journeyman or not his make percentage on a 30 footer will be much higher than 5%.
  6. sirswish6 sirswish6 is offline i mean super business

    Mexico

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    Aug 20th, 2012 (8/20/2012 7:12am) in reply to AFink93

    30 footer to tie on the 18th hole at 5% doesnt sound that outrageous :)
    249 1
  7. shakhtar shakhtar is offline

    NY
    United States

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    Aug 20th, 2012 (8/20/2012 8:41am) in reply to AFink93

     
    Originally Posted by AFink93 View Post

    If he is a pro golfer. Journeyman or not his make percentage on a 30 footer will be much higher than 5%.

    Actually, the putt was 38 feet to be exact, but here is the make % for PGA Tour pros from 2011. Keep in mind this is the regular tour, I'm sure the Senior tour is a little worse.

    www.pgatour.com/r/strokes-gained-putting-baseline/index.html

    You can go to the 1:42 mark of the video highlites to see the putt, I'm sure you'll agree 1 out of 20 would be about the best for that putt.

    www.pgatour.com/video/s/video/round_recaps/2012/08/19/chthighs12dicksrnd3pgatourmpg-2190903/index.html
    Thread Starter
  8. norv norv is offline Norm MacDonald of photoshop

    Wellington
    New Zealand

    Posts: 2,488
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    Aug 20th, 2012 (8/20/2012 9:05am) in reply to shakhtar

    5% is about right - 1 in 20

    great story and why i now play heapsmore golf than i do play poker

    i also enjoy it more and i'm a hella lot better at it :-)
     
  9. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

    Evergreen Park, IL
    United States

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    Aug 20th, 2012 (8/20/2012 3:47pm) in reply to norv

    Shit. That sux. Too bad you weren't able to put like 50 bux on him to make it for insurance. But I like your take on it. Dude didn't have a win since '96 on tour. Persistence pays off i guess.
     
  10. Sdanby Sdanby is offline

    Worcester
    United Kingdom

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    Aug 20th, 2012 (8/20/2012 5:41pm) in reply to TheVillageGrinder

    the joys of betting in play :)
     
  11. mcandrews3rd mcandrews3rd is offline

    United Kingdom

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    Aug 21st, 2012 (8/21/2012 1:16am) in reply to norv

     
    Originally Posted by norv View Post

    5% is about right - 1 in 20

    great story and why i now play heapsmore golf than i do play poker

    i also enjoy it more and i'm a hella lot better at it :-)


    golf is the best way to spend a day imo, if only i was good at it
     1
  12. RedIceRap RedIceRap is offline Redirator

    Germany

    Posts: 2,098
    Joined: Jun 10

    Aug 21st, 2012 (8/21/2012 1:35am) in reply to mcandrews3rd

    golf's moneymaker?
     219 1
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