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What are the odds?

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  1. MikeClarke MikeClarke is offline

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    Jun 11th, 2012 (6/11/2012 1:05am)

    3 tables, same hand, same suit all at the same time.

    Click for pic
    Edited By: MikeClarke Jun 11th, 2012 at 01:16 AM
  2. khammer6 khammer6 is offline

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    Jun 11th, 2012 (6/11/2012 1:12am) in reply to MikeClarke

    fifty-fifty
  3. norv norv is online now Norm MacDonald of photoshop

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    Jun 11th, 2012 (6/11/2012 5:58am) in reply to khammer6

    did you win any of them? i hate a10
     
  4. MikeClarke MikeClarke is offline

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    Jun 11th, 2012 (6/11/2012 8:26am) in reply to norv

    lol all three hands lost, despite having flopped a straight on one of the tables lol
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  5. xxbossmanxx xxbossmanxx is offline The Boss

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    Jun 11th, 2012 (6/11/2012 9:12am) in reply to MikeClarke

    prob about 1 in 13 million or so
  6. shakhtar shakhtar is offline

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    Jun 11th, 2012 (6/11/2012 11:27am) in reply to xxbossmanxx

    the odds of dealing the same 2 cards out of 3 decks consecutively would be approx. 2,336,448,596-1
    Now, of course, having the same three hands on three tables at the same time would be less depending on how many tables you were playing, and also, one must factor that you will see multiple hands overlapping as the deal speed and hand speeds will be different. But even with the variables, it's incredibly rare.

    To get an idea of how hard that is to do: The odds of picking with just one pick the same card out of 1 deck 3 times in a row after being reshuffled each time is 141,241-1. Now imagine picking the same 2 cards with just 2 picks 3 times in a row. 2.34 billion -1
  7. MikeClarke MikeClarke is offline

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    Jun 11th, 2012 (6/11/2012 12:04pm) in reply to shakhtar

    I was only playing 3 tables at the time. Its odd how these things occur, i mean lets say this is my 1 shot a 2.34billion to 1 odd hitting, I get 3 sets of the same cards. What are the odds of me winning the lottery, taking down the wsop main event :p But no, i get 3 of the same sets of cards!

    And i thought i wasn't lucky :p
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  8. shakhtar shakhtar is offline

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    Jun 11th, 2012 (6/11/2012 7:39pm) in reply to shakhtar

     
    Originally Posted by shakhtar View Post

    the odds of dealing the same 2 cards out of 3 decks consecutively would be approx. 2,336,448,596-1
    Now, of course, having the same three hands on three tables at the same time would be less depending on how many tables you were playing, and also, one must factor that you will see multiple hands overlapping as the deal speed and hand speeds will be different. But even with the variables, it's incredibly rare.

    To get an idea of how hard that is to do: The odds of picking with just one pick the same card out of 1 deck 3 times in a row after being reshuffled each time is 141,241-1. Now imagine picking the same 2 cards with just 2 picks 3 times in a row. 2.34 billion -1

    Sorry, these odds are way off. I misinterpreted the original question. (look at the time of post, I was not in the best of shape)

    With 3 decks of cards, each deck has 1326 two card combinations, so there are 2,331,473,976 combinations of two card holdings being dealt from three decks. Of those, there are 1326 that are the same for all three, which makes the true odds for just one deal each at three tables being the same at 1,758,275-1. The chances of picking the same 1 card out of 3 reshuffled decks is 2,703-1.

    I erred in two ways on my original answers. I gave you odds for a specific combination like AS-10d occuring 3 times, when you asked about the odds of getting any triple matching sets. And my odds were off since I used rounded percentages multiplied instead of figuring actual combinations.

    It was 6 am, so forgive my terrible original answers.
  9. EyeKnows EyeKnows is online now

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    Jun 11th, 2012 (6/11/2012 7:56pm) in reply to shakhtar

    the first hand of the 3 doesn't matter, just deal out 2 cards. the other two hands must match that first hand. if the above 1326 is correct then the answer is -

    1,758,276 - 1

    lol, ok, I was off by one, 1,758,275 - 1 is correct.
  10. RhoNin RhoNin is offline

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    Jun 11th, 2012 (6/11/2012 8:50pm) in reply to EyeKnows

    happens to me on all my tables at least twice a day... im usually 24-tabling.
     
  11. shakhtar shakhtar is offline

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    Jun 12th, 2012 (6/12/2012 3:25am) in reply to RhoNin

    Just some more useless information for you.

    The odds of being dealt the same 3 hands on 3 simultaneous deals is 1,758,275-1. However, since you are playing many, many hands of poker, lets look at it from a more useful perspective.

    Let's say for simplicity sake that your 3 tables deal the hands at the same time, and that every hand takes the same time on each table. Now lets say you get dealt 500 hands simultaneously every day you play on each of the 3 tables. Now, lets see what the odds are of this occuring in :

    A. A month of playing (15,000 hands) = 117-1 (.8494801)

    B. A year of playing (182,000 hands) = 9-1 (.0986)

    So the feat is hard, but when playing 3 tables for a lot of hands, it is not that overwhelmingly difficult to have happen.
  12. norv norv is online now Norm MacDonald of photoshop

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    Jun 12th, 2012 (6/12/2012 10:01am) in reply to shakhtar

    well you said it was 1.75 million to one, ergo if he played 182000 hands per year he should see this happen every 7 years or so - so if Rhonin is seeing this heaps because he is 24 tabling, then either the odds are out or the dealing is crooked??
     
  13. shakhtar shakhtar is offline

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    Jun 12th, 2012 (6/12/2012 12:34pm) in reply to norv

     
    Originally Posted by norv View Post

    well you said it was 1.75 million to one, ergo if he played 182000 hands per year he should see this happen every 7 years or so - so if Rhonin is seeing this heaps because he is 24 tabling, then either the odds are out or the dealing is crooked??

    24 tables produces a ton of permutations, so getting 3 identical hands on 3 tables playing 24 tables is not that uncommon.
  14. norv norv is online now Norm MacDonald of photoshop

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    Jun 12th, 2012 (6/12/2012 1:20pm) in reply to shakhtar

    well 24 tables is 8x more than the op's, therefore he should also see these 3 identical hands once per year (if they played the same number of hands per table)??

    im no maths wizz...haha, just drunk logic??
    Edited By: norv Jun 12th, 2012 at 01:22 PM
     
  15. shakhtar shakhtar is offline

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    Jun 12th, 2012 (6/12/2012 8:57pm) in reply to norv

     
    Originally Posted by norv View Post

    well 24 tables is 8x more than the op's, therefore he should also see these 3 identical hands once per year (if they played the same number of hands per table)??

    im no maths wizz...haha, just drunk logic??

    No, it doesn't work that way.

    Let's simplify it with coin flips. lets say you are flipping 3 coins at the same time, what are the odds you will flip heads on all 3 coins? The answer of course is 7-1 (12.5%). Now, lets only double the amount of coins we're flipping, and flip 6 coins at the same time. What are the odds of at least 3 coins being heads? You are now -190 (65.63%) to have at least 3 coins be heads. If you flipped 24 coins it would be close to 100% of the time.

    Lets look at KENO odds for another example. If I were to pick 3 numbers (out of 80), the odds of me matching those 3 numbers on one draw (20 picked out of 80) is 71-1 or 1.39%. Now, lets pick 5x the numbers and pick 15 numbers. Now, still drawing 20 out of 80, we match at least 3 numbers 79.18% of the time.
  16. RhoNin RhoNin is offline

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    Jun 12th, 2012 (6/12/2012 9:32pm) in reply to shakhtar

    i was kidding. im not 24-tabling.
     
  17. cocoa_butter111 cocoa_butter111 is offline

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    Jun 21st, 2012 (6/21/2012 8:34pm) in reply to RhoNin

    NQTW
     
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