I think you are strongly over estimating the speed that the US government does anything

ESPn yanking the napt coverage and doubling wsop are unrelated. Napt was yankee because that is sponsored poker stars, and I'm pretty sure I don't have to explain any further why that was yanked. Wsop's affiliations are to harrahs; next clOsest affiliations are beef jerky and beer. And being that it seems as if that is the stronghold to your theory, it sure seems unwarranted. Sorry.

change is good

 

Originally Posted by SusieQue

I think you are strongly over estimating the speed that the US government does anything

3-5 yrs if they move exponentially faster than normal

 

Originally Posted by Sagacious Man

Imagine how many fishies would come back if it were regulated and depositing were easy.

It could be the closest we'll ever get to the original boom again. It could be a plus if the Government will not lose the momentum that moving quickly and "FEDERALLY INSURING" our money...

Don't hold your breath boys, the US congress would have to pass a law on regulation, not very likely. lol at all the clowns who thought Obama and his boy Eric Holder would be good for online poker.

The Village Grinder,

Your probably right here. As is, nothing right now is helping pokerstars (or Full Tilt, or anyone else) get back into the US. About the only reason to believe regulation in any form will ever be done is the money to the US govt (and potential US organizations that would like to institute it on some level). There are only 2 reasons to believe the US could ever regulate it in a way that is positive for the players (and could lead to another boom).

1) An outright 'Miracle on Ice' type miracle happens and PokerStars/Full Tilt win their legal case against the DOJ. It will go to trial, and they win, they would instantly be let back in (and could obviously get deposits moving and the industry working here within weeks, since the infastructure is basically there). If this were to happen say, summer of 2012, during the heat of the elections, there may (key word) be no taste to pass a law and outright ban poker, and have people screaming about their rights, and some opportunistic politicians siding with poker players in close races. Long shot, but my guess is this is the best shot still. Poker is the sort of Red Herring type issue that could take over an election (when politicians would rather not talk about issues like Gay Marriage, the Economy, the War, or fixing Social Security, which don't offer any real issues).

2) Eventually, there is too much money in online gambling (and the hypocrisy that it's offered in numerous other forms already...really this is about as logical as saying alcohol is legal at a bar, but not at home). If they legalize it in some form, we can assume that the big casinos will have a hand in it, and will weight it towards their advantage. Not only that, but they will try to shove rakes at casino rates down our throats. But, there are international trade agreements that the US has signed with countries that have large online casinos. By those trade agreements, the US may have to allow at least some of these sites in, and they may choose to offer the lower rakes (which would force everyone to offer them to be competitive).

I think in 30-40 years, this will all have worked out, and our grandkids who want to play will be writing reports and laughing at how rediculous we use to be here in the 'old days'. I'm just hoping we can get some of this stuff fixed sooner rather than later.

There are plenty of sponsors that are unrelated to online poker that ESPN could work with for WSOP programming: subscription-based online poker sites, beef jerky, Southwest Airlines, energy drinks, land-based casino companies, etc.

LOL figured my post wouldnt be recieved that well but oh well nothing wrong with some optomism in a shitty time for many of us. One other thing i did find odd last year was mike sexton returning to party last year but with all the degenerate shit they offer on there thats non-poker i find it hard to believe theyd be let back in should regulation occur. As i said originally im probaly wrong but either way i think by this time next year its regulated in the US, too many people want this and our GOVT needs the money

Ktyven - sucks you have a bunch of money stuck on tilt and even worse you have a bunch stuck on UB. I'm cautiously optimistic that tilt will refund US players but UB is going into bankruptcy as far as I understand and things are only getting worse for them. If your considering options and you are the primary income recipient for your family I would strongly recommend moving out of the country unless you are ready for a job that does not include online poker (check the threads there's a pretty good one focusing on this subject). Don't be slow about this though - if you have 5 months then NOW is the time to do it. Don't sit tight grinding away on UB as you'll find yourself stuck by December discovering: (1) you're never going to see that money again (I wouldn't even pay 10 cents to the dollar for UB money right now); and (2) you should have been prepping for necessary changes when instead you were grinding like it's just another day.

There's a train coming man and you have to adjust or get run over. I've known u a while I'm just trying to help out so don't take it harsh, but if you take this as a harsh wakeup than I've helped you out. Check this post a year from now trust me man you'll thank me.

As far as legalizing poker - it really depends on all of us. How many of you have written your Congressman recently? Or encouraged friends and family to support online legislation? If you have then thats awesome, but I'd be surprised to find more than a handful. Most onliners don't even bother with online poker forums such as P5s/2+2, and far less even bother to take action and let their voices be heard. If we don't get it passed in the next few years (and its our best shot right now given the shitty economy and the number of pissed off Americans) then you've got nobody to blame but yourselves.

One quick point - if you can play live thats always an alternative to moving (which is obviously a big deal especially with family). Just keep in mind a lot of places are seeing former online regs. coming in daily.

Money laundering is fine for online poker,but taboo for drug cartel explain please

Man if you've got a family to feed then you better not put any of your eggs in waiting around for online poker to make a return to the US. It just ain't gonna happen any time soon. I think it will eventually but its gonna take time.

Think about it. This is politics. Shit moves slowly. First, they'll have to actually take legislative action that repeals or supplants the UIGEA. Then they will need to create a framework for regulation. Then they'll need to create a system to ensure everyone is paying their taxes. Granted, some of this could happen concurrently but even still we are talking a long time.

The most optimistic scenario sees a bill passing this fall. And I think this is a HUGE longshot considering the bad image online poker has. Count on A TON of push back from special interest and the religious right. Ultimately, I dont think that will stop it but it could slow passage of legislation. Then an entire regulatory system will need to be set up, vendors licensed, tax channels created, etc. I could see this taking an additional year.

So VERY best case, we are talking about having online poker again in the US is probably like December 2012. This doesn't even take into consideration the time the sites will need to get their shit together. Can you imagine how retarded the sites are gonna be when they first open for business? They'll need time to do testing and work out all their bugs as well.

And even if/when online poker makes a return to the US, what will the product be like? I think one thing is fairly certain, we won't see an international player pool again. IMO, what happens on that front will be enormous. Unless interest in poker grows exponentially in the US over the next couple years, there just won't be the player volume (to compensate for the loss of the players on an international level) on a consistent basis to make it super profitable. Plus how will the tax system be set up? Will players have to pay huge entertainment taxes on their winnings? And rake will def go up. A very serious question is-if poker returns how much less profitable will it be? So many unanswered questions.

My point is its time to get a job at least for the next couple years.

Transitioning to live cash is an option, but you'll need to be rolled to play 5/10 at least and have six months + expenses. You just can't make enough at lower stakes to consider that an option. And then you'll need a minimum 50k roll-separate from your life funds-to be secure enough.

Moving out of the US is an option, but even many top US pros are taking a wait and see approach there. They are just wondering if there will be enough action and enough incentive in the new world order of online poker. The high stakes community has taken a hit. Do you really wanna relocate your family and grind midstakes (assuming ur mtt guy) only? Risk/reward just doesn't seem worth it.

Good luck in what ever you decide, but definitely think about all the ramifications, upsides and downsides of each option before doing something extreme.

 

Originally Posted by bonflizubi

FYP

yeah thanks for mentionin' that .... still think i got a raw deal from bodog but whatever, if it makes u feel like ur a better man than me, go right ahead....

villagegrinder thx for the great input