Decided to track my "flip" percentage (All-in pre-flop only). I ran at 31% over a 100 flip sample size. Do I have a heater coming soon or do I just run that bad? Pretty convinced it's "I RUN WORSE THAN A DRUNK TURTLE" but wanted to hear others thoughts.

I remember Graps wrote an article a while back about "who's the guy that never runs good?" Yup, it's me.

well since u won only 31/100, the next 100 you will win 69/100, thats how math works fortunately

i'm at about 50% life time











( 0% when it matters )

i dont flip because i like to see safe flops

if theres an aye or a kay on the board im outtie

 

Originally Posted by JapanRep420

Unfortunately that's not how it works. Each flip is independent from every other time. Most of the time it averages out in the long-run, but not always.

thanks for clearing that up

 

Originally Posted by JapanRep420

Unfortunately that's not how it works. Each flip is independent from every other time. Most of the time it averages out in the long-run, but not always.

actually, given a large enough sample it will always even out

 

Originally Posted by JapanRep420

Unfortunately that's not how it works. Each flip is independent from every other time. Most of the time it averages out in the long-run, but not always.

Game Over in lvl 1. That's gotta suck

 

Originally Posted by Appst08

most hands that some ppl consider "flips" aren't "flips"

ex: AKs v QJo isn't a flip

who the hell considers that a flip?

 

Originally Posted by msc

who the hell considers that a flip?

Who doesn't?

You either win or you dont

Probability of winning 31 or fewer out of 100 coin flips = .0000915716 or .00915716%

Suffice it to say you're running fucking god awful. To give you some perspective, you're about 10 times more likely to hit runner runner perfect than run this bad in coin flips over 100 trials.

Not sure what else i can say, good luck in future flips. You need it more than 99.99% of poker players.

(Calculation was done using a binomial distribution calculator online)

Edit:
Also a quick comment about sample size. Sample size in lower variance trials such as coin flips need not be as high to make determinations about populations. This is why most polling companies (Gallup, Rasmussen, etc.) only talk to 1000 people or fewer to get an idea of how the population as a whole feels.

 

Originally Posted by wivawat04

while numbers are cool and all, i doubt OP's average equity was = %50 AIPF in the 100 'flips' he's referring to

and 100 is still a small sample size even in 50/50 outcome situations

Just ran some more numbers real quick. If the OP held AK vs. QQ everytime in those 100 trials he would still only have about a .005 or .5% chance of running this bad or worse.

Also, most textbooks dont list binomial distributions past about 40 or 50 trials because it approximates the normal distribution so closely after that point (The normal distribution is essentially infinite trials). The numbers speak for themselves or maybe I'm just the number's spokesperson.

pretty oi but gonna leave saying i'm skeptical of your math even though you try using words u hope others won't know, and trying to say in a pot where he's got a shade above 40% equity he has a less than 1% chance of winning 31 instead of 42 over 100 hands

How do you even filter this on hem or pt3?
Anyway I assume by the meaning flips he's including the times he has over cards vs smaller pairs equally as much as he is including pairs vs overcards so it should be close enough to 50/50.

Iuno about that online calculator seems too tiny of a %. I think the formula to figure out the % that he wins 31/100 flips is:

P(31)=[SIZE=1] 100[/SIZE]C[SIZE=1]31[/SIZE](.50)^[SIZE=1]31[/SIZE](1-.50)^[SIZE=1]69[/SIZE]

I get some weird number in my calculator.

i consider every 70/30 situation where i'm the favourite a flip.or if u have tens and i have kings = where flipping imo

 

Originally Posted by wivawat04

pretty oi but gonna leave saying i'm skeptical of your math even though you try using words u hope others won't know, and trying to say in a pot where he's got a shade above 40% equity he has a less than 1% chance of winning 31 instead of 42 over 100 hands

Here's the applet that I used so try it for yourself:

http://stattrek.com/Tables/Binomial.aspx

Probability of success = .44 which i get from poker stove's numbers for AK vs. QQ: 43.944% to 56.056% (rounded up slightly to 44%)

Number of trials = 100 Number of successes = 31

If you don't know the math, why argue with someone who does? I'm not just bullshitting. With all the talk of probabilities I thought some would find it interesting to see what the numbers actually are. I found the numbers to be quite shocking as well to be honest, but that's part of what makes math so interesting; is that it can sometimes surprise you. Sorry if my words came off as condescending, but I thought you were disagreeing with my math as opposed to disagreeing simply on principle so I spoke to you as someone who had a serious mathematical opposition to my numbers.

 

Originally Posted by rickyt88

Iuno about that online calculator seems too tiny of a %. I think the formula to figure out the % that he wins 31/100 flips is:

P(31)=[SIZE=1] 100[/SIZE]C[SIZE=1]31[/SIZE](.50)^[SIZE=1]31[/SIZE](1-.50)^[SIZE=1]69[/SIZE]

I get some weird number in my calculator.

That is the formula for having exactly 31 coin flips go his way, I went with cumulative; P(X<=31), but certainly both give you a fairly accurate picture of what's going on. Calculators have a hard time processing numbers as big as 100 C 31 and as small as .50^100 at the same time so thats probably why you got a weird number.