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could i dump to gboro??.....die uncleared depos....i mean seriously i used to laugh at donkeys who typed rigged into chat after getting fked but its really getting to the point where theres no other explanation, i mean its either that or i literally am the unluckiest mofo in the world. i hate ranting but its really starting to fuck with my head, it just wont seem to end. ill ship some bs tourney for like 2k and think its about to look up but same ol shit the next day. fuckin sigh guys, just tell me it'll be ok :( I'M JUST SO TIIIIIIIIRRRRRRRRREDDD
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Work on your game, everybody has leaks, everybody should be adjusting, don't complain, if you are a profitable player it will work out in the end.
There are millions of people that are running below expectation everyday. Im sorry, I love to help p5' community but there are just tooooo many of these post lately. -
you're problem is assuming u are alone, it happens to everybody. yes even gboro (ok maybe not him but everyone else)
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I agree. Too many players running like God and thinking it is their great play getting it in "good" with AK vs TT and winning 70% of time when they should only win 43%. I never seem to see any stats when these posts are made. I suggest you "prove" how bad you are running by actually recording everytime you are allin or have someone else allin. Record what percent your chance of winning is, then record if you won or lost. If you are 60% favorite, and win, they you are .40 allin wins above expectation. If you lose then you are -0.60 below expecation.
Originally Posted by Appst08
There are millions of people that are running below expectation everyday. Im sorry, I love to help p5' community but there are just tooooo many of these post lately.
Also keep track of chip equity. For example if pot is 10,000 and you are 57% favorite to win, and you win, then you are +4,300 in chip equity. If you lose, you are -5,700 in chip equity.
I keep these stats every year. For 2009, on average I was 57.26% to win each allin, but I only won 55.38% of them. This made me -34.98 allin wins below expecation after 1745 allins. I was also -248,000 short in chip equity. This was an avearge shortage of 500 chips per tournament. Odds of running this badly were 1 in 17.84. Despite this, my ROI was 59% but would have been about 110% had I just run normal.
For 2010, my average allin equity rose to 59.05% but I only won 57.72% of the time. (only 189 allins this year) But my chip equity is minus 1.55 million chips or an average shortage of 19,413 chips per tournament. (mostly due to losing 1.5 mil pot with AK vs AJ late in a tournament) My ROI this year is -6.06%
I ran very close to even in 2008 (still slighly below) but ran way below avg. again in 2007.
So keep some stats, and if after 6 months you can prove how badly you are running, then it will carry more weight than simply saying "every 2 and 3 outer beats me every time" -
I keep a sheet of paper at my desk when I play. Whenever I get all in, I write down the hands, and the size of the pot, and who won. Later when I have time, I then enter the hands in pokerstove.com analyzer to get the percentages. Then when I am done playing, I enter the data in an excel spreadsheet. I keep seperate stats for all preflop stats and allin post flop stats. I then combine the for a summary. it looks a bit like this:
Originally Posted by clemsonrich
how do you keep all those stats? also, if AP ever actually sent requested HH's, this would be easier :/ ...the only thing getting me through this stretch is the sick heater that inevitably (?) waits at the end..
% equity Won Lost expected Chip equity Chip Actual difference
100%
99%
98%
etc.
57% 2 1 1.71 2456 2956 +500
56%
55%
20% 1 8 1.80 950 340 -610
down to
0%
summary 3 9 3.51 3406 3296 -110
so in this small sample, my expected wins are 3.51 but I only won 3.00 and my chip equity was -110 chips short of expectation. -
WAAAAMBULANCE!!!! IMO
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so ur sayings its not rigged yet your stats clearly show u are running below expectation every year? and while 2 or 3% difference may not seem like much that is HUGE in the scheme of things...if pokerstars was doing this and allowing bad players to win just 3% more often than they should, they end up raking a TON more money
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lol.. if anything they have it where it will pan out close to the actual odds. but has anyone considered just taking the statistics late in tournaments? lets say 10% of the field left? that when i feel like they hate me. when everything is on the line
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