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I've been quiet about this too long what do you think.....

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  1. kice32 kice32 is offline

    Posts: 864
    Joined: Dec 05

    Oct 29th, 2007 (10/29/2007 2:54am)

    Considering I've had extreme restraint in telling bad beats from my current bad run I thought I woudl bring up another topic.

    I always consider myself an idiot for even conjuring up ideas that it's not all random etc. etc. not rigged etc. etc. but in honor of AP and all I have two questions.

    1. How many Aces are in the pokerstars deck?
    2. How many Aces are in the Full Tilt deck?
    3. What is the percentage of a pocket pair vs overcards on Pokerstars?
    4. What is the percentage of a pocket pair vs overcards with an ace on pokerstars?
    5. How many times does a pair win on Full Tilt against overcards even with an Ace?

    My answers.
    1. 6 on flop, 10 on turn, 15 on river
    2. 1 on flop, 1 on turn, 2 on river
    3. pocket pair is 30% to win
    4. pocket pair is 15% to win against an overcard combo with an ace
    5. pocket pair wins 70% of the time on full tilt against overcards regardless of an ace or not

    I seriously write this off to myself in order to still play online but day in and day out my intuition tells me this is true.

    Anyone else feel like there is something up?

    I never would say a site gives more bad beats than another, but I will admit I have complete and total suspicion about random number generators. Some people run better than others, others don't that's just how it goes, but I'll be the first to say it even if the Costa Ricans flip the switch on my account or Isle of Man or whoever the adlkjg;asdkgsd; they are.

    Oh wait I just lost 3k in Omaha, that game makes a lot of sense in the long run. About as much sense as flipping coins for hundreds of dollars or buying lots of mega millions/powerball tickets.

    I called a 3 bet today with KQ of diamonds on the button to the BB to reveal a J107 flop which I shoved all in after he bet half the pot. He called with K9.....8 8
    What I didn't mention is that this was with 315 people left in the Sunday Million to put me in top 15. Oh wait, that happened with 500 left too when I shoved the 3 bettor in with JJ and he tanked and called with 99 only to run out a 4 card flush. That was only for top 21 though. Mulligan 10 10 vs 2 2, How many races can you lose on Pokerstars pairs against AK or AQ or AJ?

    Oh wait maybe it could have been when I got it all in on Sat Night in the 100 6 max on tilt with 13 players left 3 way with AA vs A10 vs 88 and the 8 jammed the flop for a 4 to 1 chiplead with 12 to go. My memory just keeps slipping away. I'm about to pass out, watch out balconys.

    Wait it could have been the two live tourneys I just played in Indiana where AdKd vs AQ failed to improve after a 9d 7d 2c board. totally missed that draw when Qc hit the river. or maybe it was the KK vs 88 or maybe it could have been the 99 on the j98 flop when A10 hillbilly got there.

    Rant Over, It's going to be real sick when I start running good. 2034 is MY YEAR TO SHINE BISHES
    875 
  2. SICKTIGHT311 SICKTIGHT311 is offline

    Long Beach, CA
    United States

    Posts: 24,818
    Joined: Jul 06

    Oct 29th, 2007 (10/29/2007 2:58am) in reply to kice32

    I feel the same way right now and I probably don't play nearly as much as you. Keep your head up man.
  3. Suitedace87 Suitedace87 is offline

    United States

    Posts: 822
    Joined: Jun 06

    Oct 29th, 2007 (10/29/2007 3:06am) in reply to kice32

    ive been on the worst run of my life also man and i keep thinking that one day it will stop, dont get me wrong im on this knew deal where i am trying to get my money in bad like the rest of ppl but oh wait, omg i cant win from behind cant win ahead wtf should i do!!!!!!!! fck these guys who get it in bad and talk sht when they suckout! i want to be like them, haha when i start running good gg leaderboads glglgl kice
  4. threebanger threebanger is offline

    United States

    Posts: 5,094
    Joined: Sep 07

    Oct 29th, 2007 (10/29/2007 9:32am) in reply to kice32

    Yeah I'm the dumb fuck for suggesting it but how can we know that play can't be programmed to deny positive outcomes to particular users?

    I think the sites have a long way to go to prove their legitimacy. I'm working too hard and playing too good to know for certain that my recent post-cashout downswing is just natural variance.

    People need to realize that lots of small-timers removing small amounts from time to time is -EV for the site. Having a way to manipulate that to slow down the cashout rate for profitable grinders would be very +EV.
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