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Mathmatically speaking,anyone know the odds of this hand happening...

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  1. ira3801 ira3801 is offline

    Fort Lauderdale, FL
    United States

    Posts: 309
    Joined: Oct 05

    Aug 19th, 2010 (8/19/2010 7:38pm)

    pokerstars Game #48371371597: Tournament #326010294, $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2010/08/19 10:13:45 ET

    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to ira3801 [Ah Ac]
    Timobub: raises 250 to 400
    ira3801: calls 400
    g_weed21: calls 325
    veippa: folds
    *** FLOP *** [5d As 6s]
    g_weed21: checks
    Timobub: checks
    ira3801: checks
    *** TURN *** [5d As 6s] [8c]
    g_weed21: bets 600
    Timobub: calls 600
    ira3801: raises 1600 to 2200 and is all-in
    g_weed21: raises 1602 to 3802 and is all-in
    Timobub: folds
    Uncalled bet (1602) returned to g_weed21
    *** RIVER *** [5d As 6s 8c] [8d]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    g_weed21: shows [8s 8h] (four of a kind, Eights)
    ira3801: shows [Ah Ac] (a full house, Aces full of Eights)
    g_weed21 collected 6350 from pot
    Seat 1: paulitschMC folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 2: ira3801 (button) showed [Ah Ac] and lost with a full house, Aces full of Eights
    Seat 3: g_weed21 (small blind) showed [8s 8h] and won (6350) with four of a kind, Eights
     
  2. Mr. Blonde Mr. Blonde is offline Supreme Moderator

    Georgetown, DE
    United States

    Posts: 26,916
    Joined: Sep 05

    Aug 19th, 2010 (8/19/2010 7:41pm) in reply to ira3801

    1 in 44?
     
  3. Gags30 Gags30 is offline

    Posts: 6,696
    Joined: Aug 07

    Aug 19th, 2010 (8/19/2010 7:46pm) in reply to Mr. Blonde

     
    Originally Posted by Mr. Blonde View Post

    1 in 44?


    if the question is...how often do you get a set of A's in vs a set of 8's and lose...then yes, 1/44 would be correct.

    if the question is how often do you run top full house into quads (a lot of people want long-term numbers like if they have AA what are the odds someone else is dealt KK, so they can bitch ohh 10,0000 times that shoudln't happen blah blah) but ya...idk the answer to this 2nd question, and frankly it doesn't even matter
    170 2 

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  4. The Baby Bull The Baby Bull is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

    Posts: 576
    Joined: Dec 07

    Aug 19th, 2010 (8/19/2010 8:28pm) in reply to Gags30

    I believe it's 1127:1 againt for him to draw out with running 8s there. Very ul
     
  5. donkiman donkiman is offline

    Posts: 1,332
    Joined: Aug 10

    Aug 19th, 2010 (8/19/2010 9:36pm) in reply to The Baby Bull

     
    Originally Posted by The Baby Bull View Post

    I believe it's 1127:1 againt for him to draw out with running 8s there. Very ul

    This is correct. He has to hit less than 4% on turn then less than 2.5% on river. Giving his total percentage on the flop (not counting runner runner straight cards) less than 0.1%

    On a side note I also had an anomaly happen a couple weeks ago. Heads up at the end of a small mtt. Pick up AA on the button. Standard raise, he calls. Flop AQJ all spades. He checks. I decide to check. Turn is an Ace (I make quads). After alot of minraising lol we get it in. He has K10 spades flopped royal.
    Edited By: donkiman Aug 19th, 2010 at 09:46 PM
     
  6. zmanpgh zmanpgh is offline

    Posts: 126
    Joined: May 08

    Aug 20th, 2010 (8/20/2010 2:24am) in reply to donkiman

    sigh...

    pokerstars Game #48397897688: Tournament #302916434, $6.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2010/08/19 20:57:48 ET
    Table '302916434 2' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
    Seat 2: xyious (9007 in chips)
    Seat 4: iRunLolBad (5240 in chips)
    Seat 6: turbopechan (4527 in chips)
    Seat 8: zmanpgh (3530 in chips)
    Seat 9: svetul*ok (4696 in chips)
    xyious: posts the ante 50
    iRunLolBad: posts the ante 50
    turbopechan: posts the ante 50
    zmanpgh: posts the ante 50
    svetul*ok: posts the ante 50
    turbopechan: posts small blind 300
    zmanpgh: posts big blind 600
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to zmanpgh [6s Ad]
    svetul*ok: folds
    xyious: folds
    iRunLolBad: folds
    turbopechan: raises 3877 to 4477 and is all-in
    zmanpgh: calls 2880 and is all-in
    Uncalled bet (997) returned to turbopechan
    *** FLOP *** [7c 7d Ac]
    *** TURN *** [7c 7d Ac] [Kd]
    *** RIVER *** [7c 7d Ac Kd] [Kc]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    turbopechan: shows [Qc Ks] (a full house, Kings full of Sevens)
    zmanpgh: shows [6s Ad] (two pair, Aces and Kings)
    turbopechan collected 7210 from pot
    zmanpgh finished the tournament in 5th place
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 7210 | Rake 0
    Board [7c 7d Ac Kd Kc]
    Seat 2: xyious folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 4: iRunLolBad (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 6: turbopechan (small blind) showed [Qc Ks] and won (7210) with a full house, Kings full of Sevens
    Seat 8: zmanpgh (big blind) showed [6s Ad] and lost with two pair, Aces and Kings
    Seat 9: svetul*ok folded before Flop (didn't bet)
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