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Maybe Michael Josem can do statistical analysis at stars...

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  1. Michael_Danser Michael_Danser is offline

    Marion, IN
    United States

    Posts: 54
    Joined: Mar 07

    Sep 30th, 2008 (9/30/2008 1:47pm)

    We all see the "tinfoil hat" conspiracies posted here and at other forums and many of us probably give them some ,to a lot of creedence, after you've ran like hell for a week straight or so,lol.

    I'd like to see Michael Josem do some statistical analysis at stars now that he's employed there after breaking open the cheating scandal at UB. Maybe he could put to rest some nagging questions or confirm the paranoia some of us have about certain situations in online poker that we see posted about all too often such as:

    1. The overall % that bigger stacks take out smaller stacks in MTTS in coinflip situations vs the expected outcome.
    2. That same % at bubble time.
    3. The overall win % of dominating hands such as AA and AK
    4. That same % at bubble time
    5. The % of time smaller pairs hit sets vs overcards when smaller pairs are in the hands of larger stacks
    6. The same % at bubble time
    Please add your situation you'd like to see analyzed that you believe you've noticed a troubling pattern in. I realize no one seems to have a magic number of a satisfactory sample size to confirm or deny the tinfoil hat conspiracies, but let's face facts: We do rely on the sites promises only that they are providing a fair game with no actual oversite whilst 2 of the 4 major sites in the US have had cheating scandals that went undetected by the sites or the so called "gaming commission" employed to protect players from such scandals.

    Why not provide in a transparent way the results of an internal audit such as this in an attempt to put an end to these conspiracy theories and provide players with piece of mind or expose problems with software that could be corrected once and for all if that was actually what was needed.

    Just the rantings of a guy who seems to lose far more in certain situations on one site than the others who would love to see some stats broken down so I could feel confident enough in the software and site integrity to redeposit on Stars.

    Let the flaming begin...
  2. Rev.K Rev.K is offline

    Calgary
    Canada

    Posts: 865
    Joined: Nov 06

    Sep 30th, 2008 (9/30/2008 2:14pm) in reply to Michael_Danser

    Maybe he will.

    But even if he does, I don't see an end to the constant stream of threads dedicated to whether stars is rigged or not.
  3. kportune kportune is offline

    Savannah, GA
    United States

    Posts: 1,349
    Joined: Aug 08

    Sep 30th, 2008 (9/30/2008 2:54pm) in reply to Michael_Danser

    Completely different type of "scandal", but ok...bring him in! Or anyone with the time can get all the stats. But you'd need a really good sample size and a LOT of time to solve the validity the RNG or "R"NG as some would put it. I kept thinking an ace would flop a lot more online, at least it seemed that way. So I looked at 1000 hands (small sample size, I know). But, an ace flopped 123 times...not to far from the norm. But it was enough to convince me that it was my selective memory that made it seem like an Ace would hit the flop so many times.
    But I'd love to see the real numbers on all the above mentioned situations
  4. PokerStarsMichaelJ PokerStarsMichaelJ is offline PokerStars Security

    Sydney
    Australia

    Posts: 15
    Joined: Apr 08

    Oct 3rd, 2008 (10/3/2008 12:55am) in reply to Michael_Danser

    Hello,

    Let me make a few quick points:

    1) In the future, you're welcome to contact me directly if you have things you'd like me to do. You can contact me by PM on here, or by typing my name into Google, or emailing pokerstars.

    2) I was only a part of the AP/UB investigation - Nat and other deserve full credit for that stuff too. The article in the Australian media (understandably) focused on the connection to Australia.

    3) If you email support@pokerstars.com they'll do most of these things for you, using your own personal hand histories as the source data to ensure that it is entirely verifiable.

    Hopefully this is all helpful to you.

    Sincerely,

    Michael J
    PokerStars Game Security Team
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