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"Races"

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  1. Mkind16 Mkind16 is offline

    Manalapan, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 5,379
    Joined: Aug 05

    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 1:59am)

    Am I the only person on this website who just does not win races? OK, I don't lose them all, but in my last 100 races (yes, I started keeping track when I came to the realization that I was losing most of my "races"), I won 24 times. I thought it was supposed to be even money. When I do win a race, it's usually in a hand where somebody else is all-in and the amount is not a significant part of my stack. Every critical race for me (either my all-in or a significant portion of my chips) goes the wrong way. Am I doing something wrong or am I just unlucky?
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  2. casinodee41 casinodee41 is offline

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    Joined: Dec 05

    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 3:02am) in reply to Mkind16

    If you got a smaller stack on stars 80% chance you lose a all in on stars.
  3. uber noob uber noob is offline

    Posts: 350
    Joined: Oct 05

    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 3:12am) in reply to Mkind16

    <span>Quote:</span><span>
    Mkind16 said,

    </span>
  4. Adam Adam is offline Emperor

    Atlanta, GA
    United States

    Posts: 12,628
    Joined: Dec 04

    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 3:59am) in reply to Mkind16

    You're probably just unlucky. You do realize that people are, in fact, unlucky. It's just a fact of life that the cards actually have their own thought processes, and they single individuals out and laugh to themselves while screwing those people over. There, I said it, now the secret is out.
     
  5. Skoky Skoky is offline

    Bateman
    Australia

    Posts: 432
    Joined: Dec 05

    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 4:01am) in reply to Mkind16

    ARE u trying to get a straight wth 6 10 off
  6. perma_tilt perma_tilt is offline

    FM
    United States

    Posts: 2,411
    Joined: Jan 05

    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 7:06am) in reply to Skoky

    I Try my best not to get into races often and win tourneys with only 1 or 2 races at the end
  7. Mkind16 Mkind16 is offline

    Manalapan, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 5,379
    Joined: Aug 05

    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 8:09am) in reply to perma_tilt

    I try this 2 but they are inevitable. I will fold mid pairs facing a raise on the short stack simply because I know I wont win a race. I was just eliminated from a final table in 8th place (literally 3 minutes ago) after losing yet another race. It really irritates me.
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    Thread Starter
  8. alwaysdrowning alwaysdrowning is offline

    Jarrettsville, MD
    United States

    Posts: 2,088
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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 8:55am) in reply to Mkind16

    NH Adam.

    Do I even need to say it again... clearly you guys don't remember winning races, because the fact is that doesn't leave as lasting an impression on your brain. You do remember horrible bad beats, and you remember losing coin flips, but you don't tend to remember when you suckout, or when you win 3 races in a row to make the FT. Your brain tends to focus on the negative aspects more prominently, thus psychologically making you feel like you <span>never win races</span>.

    BINK.
  9. wuwut666 wuwut666 is offline

    Toronto
    Canada

    Posts: 337
    Joined: Oct 05

    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 9:31am) in reply to alwaysdrowning

    seriously... stop whining and play better... plain and simple.... just stop being so short-stacked and having to go all-in with ur 7's and getting called by KQ... (btw a 100 sample of ur races is clearly not enough)
  10. AceRunner AceRunner is offline

    Thailand

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 10:14am) in reply to wuwut666

    I avoid races(when I know it is a race) unless I am getting great pot odds to call. They are just not worth the risk for me.

    Getting all your chips in pf with a coin flip helps the inferior player.

    This is of course for freezeouts. In a rebuy I would definitely take any race.
  11. misterizx misterizx is offline

    Woodlake, CA
    United States

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 10:22am) in reply to Mkind16

    This is not a joke reply, I am the unluckiest person in the world when it comes to races.It is not that I never win them it is just that I always lose that critical race or hand when I am way ahead that would give me a good stack.

    Lately I have tried something different. I have been racing against small stacks and really pushing with mediocre hands like KJ or A 10. I am suprised how many tims my KJ has beaten AQ or my A 10 has beaten KK. Ive been really finishing well in my sitngos lately( playing stupid).

    You cant give a bad beat unless you are behind.
    MY NEW MOTO
  12. Willo Willo is offline

    Forest Hills, NY
    United States

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 11:28am) in reply to Mkind16

    The question that came to mind for me is why are you in so many races?

    You didn't give 100 out of X but by your post I gather that they are pretty recent..i.e close together and often.

    Some details are missing but IMHO there may need to be an adjustment in starting hands.
  13. IVIatty IVIatty is offline

    Peabody, MA
    United States

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 11:35am) in reply to casinodee41

    HAHA, thats exactly how I feel about stars.
  14. mattg1983 mattg1983 is offline buying action

    Round Rock, TX
    United States

    Posts: 7,999
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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 12:58pm) in reply to Willo

    Winning races isnt the key to winning tournaments. The key is racing as little as possible and picking up pots without showdown.
     12
  15. ActionJeff ActionJeff is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 1:04pm) in reply to mattg1983

    if you have really won only 1/4 of ur races in 100, then you ARE just unlucky. It is a bad swing and it happens. I recently experienced a 6K + downswing in sngs with buy ins no larger than $555, and I am normally a solid winner in those. On party poker, I once swung down over 4K in $200 sngs in a few days! Now, if you have over 1000 coinflips and have lost most of them... someone up there does not like you lol.
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  16. BUCKINATOR BUCKINATOR is offline

    Hoopeston, IL
    United States

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 1:10pm) in reply to ActionJeff

    yah what matt said.
  17. LebanonJon LebanonJon is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 8:49pm) in reply to Mkind16

    anyone know the probability of only winning 25 out of 100 races, i think im gonna calculate it, but i need to go look it up in my prob stats book, i think its like X ~ Bin(100,0.5), dont think u can just use mutally exclusive events (multiplying) for it
     
  18. LebanonJon LebanonJon is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 9:05pm) in reply to LebanonJon

    ok, looked it up, binomial expansion theorem, (like the bernulli trials for the card calculator) wow im pretty sure i did this right, X:number of successed in n trials, X~Bin(100,0.5) = (100!/25!*75!)*(0.5^25)*(0.5^75) = 1.9E-7 or like 5 million to one, that is REALLY bad.
     
  19. LebanonJon LebanonJon is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 10:18pm) in reply to LebanonJon

    ok im retarded, thats the probability of winning EXACTLY 25 in 100 races, to find out the probability of winning no more than 25 coin flips you add up all the binomials of X=0,1,2,3...25 does not look good to calculate by hand, haha.
     
  20. LebanonJon LebanonJon is offline

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    Dec 11th, 2005 (12/11/2005 11:42pm) in reply to LebanonJon

    so i figured it out and i highly doubt that you lost 75 out of 100 coinflips, the probabilty of that happening is 2 million to one, the probabilty of losing 65 out of 100 is more feasable, 1000-1 odds. make sure your not a 55% 45% dog in your races every time because that makes a HUGE difference in a sample size such as 100 races.
     
  21. Tim Lock Tim Lock is offline

    FL
    United States

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    Dec 12th, 2005 (12/12/2005 4:48pm) in reply to LebanonJon

    Hey Jon, I think your medication is wearing off.

    gg aderol.

    Tim Lock
  22. LebanonJon LebanonJon is offline

    Posts: 232
    Joined: Apr 05

    Dec 12th, 2005 (12/12/2005 6:50pm) in reply to Tim Lock

    lmao, yah actually studying for finals, got my brain not working right, haha
     
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