[x]

Running bad ?

Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 11
  1. DoubleUp28 DoubleUp28 is offline

    Chicago, IL
    United States

    Posts: 1,149
    Joined: Feb 07

    May 26th, 2012 (5/26/2012 7:03pm)

    How long is it possible to run bad?

    Little background: I'm a mid stakes cash game player, mostly 1/2 2/4....2007-2011 poker was my sole source of income and I got a mortgage and car by doing so and have had 6 fig years (non sick brag; all money is in my underwater house)

    So obv I'm a winning player and know so. However, I've been working a full time job the last 2 years b/c my poker winnings are not enough to pay my mortgage/bills/lifestyle/etc.

    I feel as though I've ran sfknbad the last 2 years...however, I feel that I'm a better player to this day when I'm barely scrapping 20g for the year than years I've made 100k +

    I know the competition is tougher and regulation has had a big factor into everything/less fish but I know that I should be making @ least 50k/yr but am running sooooooooo bad.

    So like I said is it possible to run terrible for 1-2 years?!?

    How long of weeks/months/years have some of you run bad for?
  2. MomentumDeferred MomentumDeferred is offline

    Fort Wayne, IN
    United States

    Posts: 30
    Joined: Mar 12

    May 26th, 2012 (5/26/2012 7:40pm) in reply to DoubleUp28

    First of all, I think anyone saying they should be making x amount of $ over any short period of time(and yes, in poker, is still a pretty short period of time) is absolutely the wrong mindset.

    I have to wonder, since you're working full-time, how many hands are you putting in compared to when you played full time? Because when talking about running good/bad, it's absolutely about numbers of hands played and not about any particular period of time.

    And one important question I think you should ask yourself -- is the fact that you have a full-time job and not relying on poker as your primary source of income affecting you in any way? Something to consider.
  3. DoubleUp28 DoubleUp28 is offline

    Chicago, IL
    United States

    Posts: 1,149
    Joined: Feb 07

    May 26th, 2012 (5/26/2012 8:00pm) in reply to MomentumDeferred

     
    Originally Posted by MomentumDeferred View Post

    First of all, I think anyone saying they should be making x amount of $ over any short period of time(and yes, in poker, is still a pretty short period of time) is absolutely the wrong mindset.

    I have to wonder, since you're working full-time, how many hands are you putting in compared to when you played full time? Because when talking about running good/bad, it's absolutely about numbers of hands played and not about any particular period of time.

    And one important question I think you should ask yourself -- is the fact that you have a full-time job and not relying on poker as your primary source of income affecting you in any way? Something to consider.

    I agree that its not about making X amount of dollars and its about hands played over a period of time. However, I had a 5 year running average of ~70K/yr averaging 30-40 hours a week and 30-40,000 hands/month.

    2nd half of 2010 started running terrible and it continued through 2011 and now into 2012. Mind you, running terrible means making money but not where I need to be.

    2010 and 2011 I played the same amount of hands/hours and now that number is cut in half w/ a full time job.

    I'm just curious as to if others have had this similar occurrences, or maybe I had a 5 year heater and I'm not as good as I think I am, or if I can just chalk it up to legislation and deal w/ it until its regulated.
    Thread Starter
  4. MomentumDeferred MomentumDeferred is offline

    Fort Wayne, IN
    United States

    Posts: 30
    Joined: Mar 12

    May 26th, 2012 (5/26/2012 8:40pm) in reply to DoubleUp28

     
    Originally Posted by DoubleUp28 View Post

    I agree that its not about making X amount of dollars and its about hands played over a period of time. However, I had a 5 year running average of ~70K/yr averaging 30-40 hours a week and 30-40,000 hands/month.

    2nd half of 2010 started running terrible and it continued through 2011 and now into 2012. Mind you, running terrible means making money but not where I need to be.

    2010 and 2011 I played the same amount of hands/hours and now that number is cut in half w/ a full time job.

    I'm just curious as to if others have had this similar occurrences, or maybe I had a 5 year heater and I'm not as good as I think I am, or if I can just chalk it up to legislation and deal w/ it until its regulated.

    I think you should have mentioned this in your first post. I assumed you were running in the red, not under expectation.

    I haven't played any significant amount of cash online pre- or post-BF, so I can't really speak to how hard the games were or are, but the general consensus on this and that other forum seems to be that the games are tougher now, esp. at whatever stakes you are likely playing.

    So my gut reaction is that while you might be running below EV over a good sample size, you're not in as bad of a place as you think you are. But I am sure you can find someone here or on that other forum willing to take a look at all your data and give you a more complete analysis.
  5. ACgaming ACgaming is offline

    Posts: 730
    Joined: Jun 09

    May 27th, 2012 (5/27/2012 2:35am) in reply to MomentumDeferred

    It's easily possible in MTT's to run bad for a year or two.

    Especially when one bad beat can hit you for like 20k or more.
    Or losing a few 10k coinflips here and there, sprinkled in.

    In cash it doesn't seem as likely but you are playing way less hands so it is certainly possible.
     
  6. boneralert boneralert is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 1,155
    Joined: Jan 11

    May 27th, 2012 (5/27/2012 3:52am) in reply to ACgaming

    It is possible to run bad forever. Okay maybe not forever, but at least forever-n, with n being some non-zero duration of time.

    Obviously that's unlikely though. Seems like some combination of you running somewhat bad, the games being somewhat tougher, and your initial success coming when you were running above expectation. Not fun, but as you say you are confident that you are a winning player, and even in your downswing you're making money, so you should be well-equipped to fight through it.
     
  7. random.chu random.chu is offline The People's Troll

    Adelaide
    Australia

    Posts: 1,424
    Joined: Aug 09

    May 27th, 2012 (5/27/2012 9:20am) in reply to boneralert

    let's not forget the chance that you've run hot for a bit, and the game has caught up to you
    346 1
  8. catlax30 catlax30 is offline

    Posts: 5
    Joined: May 12

    May 27th, 2012 (5/27/2012 11:41am) in reply to random.chu

    i think i ran 30 buy ins below ev over 6 months/500k hands last year

    i have heard of people running worse i think
  9. djdoodoo djdoodoo is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 1,730
    Joined: Mar 10

    May 27th, 2012 (5/27/2012 12:19pm) in reply to catlax30

    Well I run bad for life, so there's that.
  10. 123454321888 123454321888 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 51
    Joined: May 11

    May 27th, 2012 (5/27/2012 1:17pm) in reply to djdoodoo

    Maybe games are changing and your not adapting. Live i guess this is poss im not sure, i know players can have 1mill hand breakeven stretches but online not so bad with rakeback etc. Just seems like your 100% that its all run bad.
    878 
Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 11