The swings of tournament poker are bigger than most people will ever realize. Most people have a very selective memory when it comes to getting knocked out of MTTs. Even if you're getting it in good all the time, you could be coolering someone else which is a run good in itself. Just keep playing and looking for ways to improve and the results will sort themself out.

more chips wins more flips

 

Originally Posted by JksRbetter

The great man once said if you are always getting it in good, then you are not getting it in enough. You will never win a tournament without getting lucky. Just keep playing it will come. Full Tilt has me thinking I would never hit a final table again on many, many times.

I like this quote. It seems to me that if you have a chiplead, you gotta put the pressure on and have your AQ>AK, J10>AK, etc. GL at the tables.

And oh yea, whenever i made a post like this, people bitch and say "bad beat." Be fortunate you are getting feedback.

I only see the brutal suctouts FTP (Constantly that is).
I am getting really frustrated with FTP.... just played Rush Rebuy, rebought 3 times... lost to 2 outers each time (Pre Flop once, on the flop twice)
I am very frustrated with FTP on many levels... I have been waiting since the first week of November for 3 withdrawals. Not very professional in my opinion.
I like FTP software, but currently that is about all I like.
FTP needs to man up and get processing. Shitty having money in limbo over a month and counting!

 

Originally Posted by ZenEnso

Dude, Rush is a fucking joke. If you can't handle beats, only play superstacks and rebuys. Rush is a fucking Soft Field.

Once you can get over the beats and you continue to play well the rush tournaments at least at the lower levels are crazy soft and very beatable

Just finished getting beaten up with the best hand on Rush, thats why I bring it up... Fill in the blank... I have been making deep runs on other poker sites... FTP is crushing my soul. Suckouts and no payments...
I understand there is ALOT of variance in MTT.
I appreciate the feedback...
I also like the quote about getting it in...
Perhaps I'll try playing a bit more maniacal and see where that gets me
Ship the Turbo FTOPS in 20 minutes? OK

best hand pre never wins

 

Originally Posted by Scarypooper

The swings of tournament poker are bigger than most people will ever realize. Most people have a very selective memory when it comes to getting knocked out of MTTs. Even if you're getting it in good all the time, you could be coolering someone else which is a run good in itself. Just keep playing and looking for ways to improve and the results will sort themself out.

No 1 of the positive reply !!!

Variance is like a sleeping monster ...

 

Originally Posted by Channing83

Ya, I know maniacal isnt the word... But the fact is.... If I always put the money in 'good" I am going to be sucked out on more than average obviously... I am just kinda frustrated with FTP cause of the withdrawal issues...
But truly... I am sucked out on FTP 5x more than PS and UB combined.

PS... Just got it in as a big stack with AQ in a spot i normally would fold.... Villain had AK!!!! I WIN

u obv dont understand variance.
u get it in as an 80% favorite 5 times in one tourny
.8^5 = .33
u should win all 5 of those 1/3 of the time.
thats only 5 times in 1 tourny. and thats assuming u get it in as an 80% fav each time.
u dont understand variance.

The answer is obvious. Call off your stack with garbage if the worst hand is going to win.

 

Originally Posted by SerlinSteak19

The answer is obvious. Call off your stack with garbage if the worst hand is going to win.

Obviously...
Crippled, AQhh loses to Q10 off ... 8 BB left

nah, it's actually never happened in the history of poker.

I take that back, I believe Wild Bill Hickock's aces and eights were good and he was certainly knocked out, although that was prolly a cash game.

great thread, keep these bad beat stories coming!

 

Originally Posted by drgnarn

seriously go look at everyones roi's on stars vs tilt, only a few have higher on tilt. i hate there random number generator. its sh1t.

ya man , i wrote thread about this 2 weeks ago,my roi on stars like 70% positive, negative 20% on tilt, wtf does this mean,obviously geting fuked on tilt daily....

You want some serious numbers - try these:
At Full Tilt and stars mostly - but some Absolute
ALL IN PRE FLOP results (So no player input - just sheer probability)_
Using an average result for each possible ALLl In type - eg. Over Pair vs Under Pair is approximately 80% - a pair against 1 over card (TT vs A7 for instance) is 68% and so on -
I have 1392 Pre Flop All Ins recorded;
66% or better 413 hands (30%) - Expected wins 311 - actual 250 - down 19.75%
50-65% - 395 hands - Expected wins 219 - actual 179 - down 18%
Over 40% (this is totally Overcards vs a pair) - 220 hands - expected win 103 - actual 95 down only 8% here
less than 40% (mostly underpair vs over pair and late short stack SnG pushes with any picture or suited connector stuff) 354 hands - expected win 97 actual 83 - down 15%
This financial year (Australian FY) I have played 11 weeks of poker - I have not had a single week where I have run above average as far as expected wins are concerned.
Of the 14 categories where I have 10 results or more I am not above average in any single one - the best is wone where I only have 11 results and am only down 2% - the next best is down 9% - the worst a Pair vs One Overcard - I am 25% below expectation here.
Overall I run at approximately 17% down on expectation with Pre Flop Al Ins - it is very hard giving your opponents a 17% advantage and still show a profit - particularly in short stack SnGs.