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VARIANCE OMG HELLPPPP!!!!!!

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  1. miked976 miked976 is offline

    Roslindale, MA
    United States

    Posts: 24
    Joined: Jul 07

    Oct 20th, 2008 (10/20/2008 7:00pm)

    Can someone please tell me what kind of bad variance they have gone through? I am a profitable sit n go player, but since early september I have not run well in them. It has gotten ubsurd of late. I actually started tracking my pre flop all ins starting today. I have lost 17 of my past 20 all ins! Of those I was dominated 3 times where I held a9 or something and shoved, called by aq.

    Does anyone have some brutal stories??? What can I do??
  2. leftygrove leftygrove is offline

    Storrs Mansfield, CT
    United States

    Posts: 2,177
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    Oct 20th, 2008 (10/20/2008 7:04pm) in reply to miked976

    imo:

    1) make sure you are good

    2) play more/less depending on evaluation of #1

    we've all gone on terrible streaks. mine was last week; now i'm on a huge upswing. gl getting through it
  3. PizzityPizzwnd PizzityPizzwnd is offline

    Mexico

    Posts: 826
    Joined: Feb 08

    Oct 20th, 2008 (10/20/2008 7:11pm) in reply to miked976

     
    Originally Posted by miked976 View Post

    I actually started tracking my pre flop all ins starting today. I have lost 17 of my past 20 all ins!

    does anyone ever believe people when they say things like this. the only reason i dont is because when i use to suck at poker i would make shit up like this to make me feel better even though its the worst thing you can do.

    not saying your lying bro, actually just wondering what people think when they hear these sayings.(eg: ive lost 13 of my last 14 all ins with AA vs KK.)

    as for OP: take a break and come back fresh dude. breaks are powerful.
     
  4. miked976 miked976 is offline

    Roslindale, MA
    United States

    Posts: 24
    Joined: Jul 07

    Oct 20th, 2008 (10/20/2008 7:18pm) in reply to PizzityPizzwnd

    I am 100% serious, I have written down the hands in an excel spreadsheet. Here they are, keep in mind, 90% of the time I was shortstacked and open shoved pre flop, these are all pre flop. I didnt write down the situation, but I am tight, so I am not calling huge all ins with crap cards, small pairs etc.

    <table x:str="" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="289"><col width="122"> <col width="103"> <col width="64"> <tbody><tr height="17"><td width="122" height="17">MY HAND</td><td width="103">AGAINST</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">aq</td><td>a5</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">k9 suited</td><td>a2</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" align="right" height="17">1010</td><td x:num="" align="right">77</td><td>win</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">jk</td><td x:num="" align="right">99</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">a9</td><td>aq</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" align="right" height="17">84</td><td>jj</td><td>WIN!</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">a8</td><td>qq in BB</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">a2</td><td>j3</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" align="right" height="17">55</td><td>a7</td><td>win</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" align="right" height="17">33</td><td>ak</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">kj</td><td>a10</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">kj</td><td>a10</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">a7</td><td>k8</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td x:num="" align="right" height="17">22</td><td x:num="" align="right">39</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">a2</td><td>a9</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">a9</td><td x:num="" align="right">55</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">a8</td><td>k10</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">kk</td><td>a9</td><td>lose</td></tr><tr height="17"><td height="17">ak</td><td x:num="" align="right">66</td><td>lose</td></tr></tbody></table>
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  5. flushacehigh10 flushacehigh10 is offline

    Cornwall, NY
    United States

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    Oct 20th, 2008 (10/20/2008 10:12pm) in reply to miked976

    dude most of the hands youve lost you were beat preflop. You need to reevaluate your play and take a break if needed. The only thing that will work. Heck of taken tons of breaks, come back, and run bad...its just the way we play the game
  6. miked976 miked976 is offline

    Roslindale, MA
    United States

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    Oct 21st, 2008 (10/21/2008 12:30am) in reply to flushacehigh10

    I realize I was behind in a few, but most were totally set up, If I get a9 on the button with a short stack, I will shove 100% of the time, its just crazy I am running into hands every time. Of those 20 hands though, I was dominated only 4 times, and by dominated I mean a3 vs a9 or something.
    The rest are as follows.

    Coinflips-6

    2 live cards but behind- 4 times

    2 live cards ahead - 3

    Times where I was way ahead - 3

    You can't critiscize my play because there are points in a sit n go when shortstacked you need to push any 2 cards, and I know this and I do, and you don't know the situation. So I go card dead, have to push and I am just consistently running into hands. But losing 17 of 20 in ubsurd.

    I just did the percentages, if I average out all the percentages there, it came out to 50% or actually 49.5%. So I should have won 10 not 3, yea I run baaaad!
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  7. matze_widi matze_widi is offline

    Stuttgart
    Germany

    Posts: 1,929
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    Oct 21st, 2008 (10/21/2008 2:00pm) in reply to miked976

    Ohh brother what are you telling me....

    sometimes it�s just sick...everything you do to get in it with the best hand, you loose npo matter what.

    i have been unlucky for the few weeks now, and i can tell you its a really tough time.

    though you have to get throught it no matter what

    never give up the hope that better days will come.
     972 
  8. miked976 miked976 is offline

    Roslindale, MA
    United States

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    Oct 22nd, 2008 (10/22/2008 10:47am) in reply to matze_widi

    Thanks Matze!!! Luckliy I am going on a cruise this weekend so I get a nice forced break, since I wrote this thread my luck has not changed at all! I just busted in a tourney when button shoved with a10 off, I had JJ, I flopped a set, bt of course it came runner runner clubs to make his ace high flush lol. Ah Well, I will get through it!!! Hopefully I won't lose my bankroll first!

    ~Mike
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  9. SilentPapa SilentPapa is offline

    IL
    United States

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    Oct 22nd, 2008 (10/22/2008 9:15pm) in reply to miked976

    If you're playing a lot of Sit and Go's, you're probably seeing a lot of the same players. Players you have notes on also have notes on you. If you're running bad with your preflop races, stop pushing preflop. It's time to change your game. Mix it up. Play small ball. IE- look for small pots to see flops with... if you catch, build the pot. Post flop, turn, river play will develop you complex thinking strategy's and get you away from this preflop gamble you've been doing. Preflop races are just that... races... you run good, you run bad, you scratch your head. Of course you could also mix up your game selection. Are you playing full table, 6-handed, heads up? No Turbo's, Turbo's, Super Turbo's? Tilt Pays: Getting angry releases an enzyme. Tryptophan Hydroxylase which can temporarily reduce the I.Q.
  10. miked976 miked976 is offline

    Roslindale, MA
    United States

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    Oct 28th, 2008 (10/28/2008 8:03pm) in reply to SilentPapa

    I am playing mainly $16-27 turbo sit n go's. The problem is I can't really play small ball because I will be card dead, then be in push mode with less than 10 times the bb. I am still trackign my all ins, I ran good for 3 tourneys, then back to bad again. of all my all ins 16 were 60-40%s I won 1 of those.

    I know I have some holes in my game, but like I said I am profitable, and before this huge downswing, I was making 16% at 16 dollar tourneys with over 1500 tourneys Thanks for the advice!
    Thread Starter
  11. moman1965 moman1965 is offline

    Katy, TX
    United States

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    Joined: Oct 06

    Oct 29th, 2008 (10/29/2008 2:20pm) in reply to miked976

    Most of the time, a bad beat or a lost coin flip will knock you out not because of the loss itself, but because you have lost fold equity by getting short stacked. IF you play at this level, I would suggest spending $200 and getting a playing lesson from Jennifear. She will spend about 4 hours with you and REALLY teach you to play sub $50 SNGs. She is just plain sick. I ran at 5% for almost 5000 games, but over my last 1500 since working with her have run around 15%. Still not great, but a respectable improvement thanks to her.
  12. miked976 miked976 is offline

    Roslindale, MA
    United States

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    Nov 1st, 2008 (11/1/2008 2:13am) in reply to moman1965

    Thanks, I might do that, like I said I am making about 16% at the 16 dollar turbos. AS for the update on my 2 month run, I think it finally changed!!!! I am not running good yet, but I multiple profitable days again finally.

    Still however I have only won 1 of 23 all ins where I am 60-40 ahead or behind. Not kidding here, is that plain sick? I have tracked over 70 hands pre flop all in and the numbers are ubsurd, but luckily I think it is finally turning around. Had I started tracking all those all ins when I originally started running bad I am sure there would be some stupid ubsurd numbers.
    Thread Starter
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