[acecatcher26]

I hate to create another thread on this topic but I would like to hear some thoughts on this subject.

Most people around here seem to think whoever gets the GOP nomination IS going to be our next President, but HelenRNurse brought up a great point last night in the other thread about the debates.

Say Perry or Romney gets the nomination and Ron Paul runs as independant?
Willl this split up the Republican party (as far as the voting public) and force Obama back into office?

Also, would the Repubs rather see Ron Paul as our next president or have Obama back (if this were the case)

Ron Pauls supporters are die hard, we all know that. So, if his name is anywhere on that ticket he will get their vote. Seems to me that Paul may be holding an ace up his sleeve here?

[Sandman_Good]

you lost me at "I hate to create another thread"

[acecatcher26]

Sorry the other threads have been derailed so much its impossible to get any logical discussion going.

[TheSilentBob]

I don't think RP is popular enough to really cause the Republicans an issue.

[MilBestDrnkr]

I'd vote for RP because if we keep saying "it's just wasting your vote" then the two party machine will never change. At some point there needs to be enough votes for a third candidate for somebody to think .. "hey, maybe it's not a wasted vote anymore"

[RichardHurtz]

I would vote for Obama again before I voted for Romney or Perry.

[acecatcher26]

 

Originally Posted by TheSilentBob

I don't think RP is popular enough to really cause the Republicans an issue.

You could be exactly right, I dont really know enough about it to have a good answer.

But, It appears some people out there may argue that fact and with good reason.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news...reagan-library

[gamma21]

 

Originally Posted by acecatcher26

Also, would the Repubs rather see Ron Paul as our next president or have Obama back (if this were the case)

Ron Pauls supporters are die hard, we all know that. So, if his name is anywhere on that ticket he will get their vote. Seems to me that Paul may be holding an ace up his sleeve here?

Does not compute. Why would the GOP want Obama over Ron Paul?

[time4badbeat]

 

Originally Posted by acecatcher26

Ron Pauls supporters are die hard, we all know that. So, if his name is anywhere on that ticket he will get their vote.

Ron Paul supporters will vote for him even if he's not on the ticket, I definitely wrote him in last time and this will be the first time I've ever voted in a primary.

[acecatcher26]

Well from all I can tell it does not compute that they would want Romney or Perry over Ron Paul, but you see how thats going..

My question is just: could RP split up the Republican party vote (Voting public) if he ran as an independant and if so how do they have any other choice but to support RP? Because IF this is the case, then the Repubs have no shot at the White House?

I should add that IF is huge and I dont have the answer and this is why Im curious as to OTs opinion.

[perma_tilt]

He is pro pot n poker?

[ScottBrewr99]

of course he would split the republican vote since most of the so called libertarians are just closeted republicans.

[acecatcher26]

I dont think hes "pro" either of those, but he is "pro" civil liberties and believes the GVMT shouldnt interfere with our personal lives so..

[norcaljeff 2010 OT Thread Kill Leader]

ABO

[The Precedent]

 

Originally Posted by acecatcher26

Most people around here seem to think whoever gets the GOP nomination IS going to be our next President

1. Most people around here aren't very smart politically.
2. The President is vulnerable.
3. The GOP field is awful.

 

Originally Posted by acecatcher26

Say Perry or Romney gets the nomination and Ron Paul runs as independant?
Willl this split up the Republican party (as far as the voting public) and force Obama back into office?

It will split more than just the GOP. The Congressman could very easily capitalize on the very prevalent popular disdain for both major parties. The new and young voters that candidate Obama overwhelmingly energized are currently disillusioned and if they vote at all this time around could vote for a 3rd party. The ones that were energized because of issues will probably stick with the President. The ones that were persuaded to vote bc of the energy and hype around the Obama candidacy could easily vote for the Congressman. Those are the people who if asked would say: 1. Politicians are corrupt. 2. Both parties are one in the same. 3. Pres Obama didn't do as much as they thought he would.
Voting for Congressman Paul would definitely be the hip thing to do in general.

I'm not saying here by any means that a 3rd party candidacy of Congressman Paul would help the GOP's odds ftr. Just pointing out that this situation would change the dynamic of way more than just the GOP vote.

This election is going to come down to 2 states this time.

[BirdWings]

 

Originally Posted by The Precedent

1. Most people around here aren't very smart politically.
2. The President is vulnerable.
3. The GOP field is awful.


It will split more than just the GOP. The Congressman could very easily capitalize on the very prevalent popular disdain for both major parties. The new and young voters that candidate Obama overwhelmingly energized are currently disillusioned and if they vote at all this time around could vote for a 3rd party. The ones that were energized because of issues will probably stick with the President. The ones that were persuaded to vote bc of the energy and hype around the Obama candidacy could easily vote for the Congressman. Those are the people who if asked would say: 1. Politicians are corrupt. 2. Both parties are one in the same. 3. Pres Obama didn't do as much as they thought he would.
Voting for Congressman Paul would definitely be the hip thing to do in general.

I'm not saying here by any means that a 3rd party candidacy of Congressman Paul would help the GOP's odds ftr. Just pointing out that this situation would change the dynamic of way more than just the GOP vote.

This election is going to come down to 2 states this time.

Pretty spot on analysis of the political landscape by The Precedent as usual. The election will come down to 2-3 states but i'll offer anyone even money up to $250 that Obama gets re-elected.

[perma_tilt]

 

Originally Posted by acecatcher26

I dont think hes "pro" either of those, but he is "pro" civil liberties and believes the GVMT shouldnt interfere with our personal lives so..

I ain't getting off my ass and voting until someone steps up and says exactly I'm going to legalize pot n poker.

[ScottBrewr99]

 

Originally Posted by perma_tilt

I ain't getting off my ass and voting until someone steps up and says exactly I'm going to legalize pot n poker.

and piss off the religious right? You'll be waiting a while.

[fly44]

Is OP suggesting that Ron Paul threaten to run as a 3rd party candidate and hijack the primaries? Or is OP suggesting that if Ron Paul doesn't doesn't get the nomination he should run as a part of the Libertarian Party and try to get the Republican candidate to drop out? Or is it something else?

[MilBestDrnkr]

He's saying that if he runs as third party it'll fuck the Republicans over.

[fly44]

Also if Ron Paul ran as a 3rd party candidate, the Republican candidate would have no chance. And I know in 2008 he said he would only run as a Republican so I don't see why he would change is position this election.

[gamma21]

 

Originally Posted by ScottBrewr99

and piss off the religious right? You'll be waiting a while.

Yeah because Ron Paul has clearly been worried about pissing off certain segments of the GOP. Ron Paul is the only politician running for POTUS, including President Obama, that says what he really means.

[jay_bear]

I wish RP would run it would give the nation a clear choice between two different view points on how to run this nation. I don't think you really get a genuine clear choice when it comes to Perry and Romney.

[resilient]

 

Originally Posted by The Precedent

3. The GOP field is awful.

I'm not really clear why Romney is an awful candidate. I assume you mean the backlash he will receive from some religious voters because of his Mormonism. I'm sure there will be some negativity toward him in the primaries, but when it's him versus Obama, those voters will quickly get over that issue.

 

Originally Posted by The Precedent

This election is going to come down to 2 states this time.

It is way, way too early to make that assessment... sure you can map out several big states, but there may be several swing states by next November that you consider certainties right now.

Ron Paul running would be terrible for the GOP - not Ross Perot terrible, but very bad... even though he would pull a much higher percentage of Dems than Perot did. Edited By: resilient Sep 24th, 2011 at 04:49 AM

[BigJohn804]

 

Originally Posted by gamma21

Ron Paul is the only politician running for POTUS, including President Obama, that says what he really means.

not so much. I think a good portion of the Republican candidates are saying what they really mean, which is what is so staggeringly scary about some of them being president.

that being said, to OP, I don't know enough about where Paul's higher concentration of supporters are to really answer the question. The problem isn't about him winning a chunk of the popular vote, it's about taking enough voters that it could tip the balance in certain states. A lot of states Paul would do well in, the generic GOP candidate is going to win handily anyways. There are a couple of states that will be battleground 2012 where he could pose a problem, like Virginia.

[BirdWings]

And New Hampshire...people love Ron Paul in the swing Live Free or Die state.

[ginwilly]

 

Originally Posted by resilient

Ron Paul running would be terrible for the GOP - not Ross Perot terrible, but very bad... even though he would pull a much higher percentage of Dems than Perot did.

I know this is true but I don't understand why. RP is the polar opposite of what the Dems presently represent. I've seen lots of people say they would vote for Paul if he won the nomination but Obama if he doesn't. Hell, if you are a Ron Paul fan you should vote for the cookie monster over Obama.

[dodgingjets]

 

Originally Posted by resilient

I'm not really clear why Romney is an awful candidate. I assume you mean the backlash he will receive from some religious voters because of his Mormonism. I'm sure there will be some negativity toward him in the primaries, but when it's him versus Obama, those voters will quickly get over that issue.

Speaking for myself, I would never vote for Romney because he's a phony conservative. He's only a conservative when he finds it politically expedient. He was a leftist/moderate when he was Governor of Mass. I don't trust him and can't buy into him at all.

If either Perry or Romney get the GOP nod, I'm def writing in a candidate this election.

[ginwilly]

the senate elections may have more importance than the presidential anyway.

[The Precedent]

 

Originally Posted by resilient

I'm not really clear why Romney is an awful candidate. I assume you mean the backlash he will receive from some religious voters because of his Mormonism. I'm sure there will be some negativity toward him in the primaries, but when it's him versus Obama, those voters will quickly get over that issue.

You assume wrong. Romney's competition makes him look better than he is. He is polished in comparison (he's been running for 5yrs). When I call the GOP field awful I wasn't thinking at all about Romney's ridiculous mormonism problem within the GOP. In fact I wasn't thinking in terms of the GOP primary much at all. The passion for Gov Romney just isn't there. That's the problem. He's the best of what's available. I could go into the many reasons I personally think he sucks, but I don't normally do that on here and won't now.

This field is completely void of gravitas. It pisses me off for personal reasons. I want my idea of a strong GOP candidate to be in the general. When i say "my idea of a strong GOP candidate" I don't mean one who has views that align politically with mine. I mean one who has "it."

This GOP field is awful.

 

Originally Posted by resilient

It is way, way to early to make that assessment...

Maybe for you. There will be several swing states in play (like 6+ish), none that I "consider certainties right now" though lol. If your point is that lots can happen between now and then that could change everything, then yes that's always true.