you should post the real one if you find it too

not taking 350,000 with 3 cases worth a total of 1.5 million wouldn't be a mistake. Especially since i've noticed on that show that once you get down to only 2 cases left they give you basically the real value of the case. Before that they rip you off, offering like 35-65% of the real value of the case.

i hate that show. but the madtv clip was great

lol'd at 'switch the witch' and when they were pumped about revealing the 500k case

OP video had me waking the dad up at 1am lol-ing

Yeah....don't take any time to actually think about the options that you have and the probability that you actually didn't pick the million dollar case. Gotta love idiots.

 

Originally Posted by DaVols

BTW, he was right turning down the deal w/ 3 to go. 1,100,025 left in the cases with 3 to go has a greater EV than the $305k offer

guaranteed money tho, that has got to count for a lot. 67% he is getting 10k or less. It's not like t his is long term expectation, you get one shot. Maybe math says to play on but I think the real world says otherwise

 

Originally Posted by LeftyMark

Agree with zepp.

agree with Lefty.

 

Originally Posted by DaVols

I actually did a study on this show when I was in a probability class in college. They don't give you anywhere near expected value near the very end

BTW, he was right turning down the deal w/ 3 to go. 1,100,025 left in the cases with 3 to go has a greater EV than the $305k offer

yep it's pretty funny for people actually calling him out when he made the correct "math" play. Granted if 305k is a lot of money to him, which it probably is, you'd probably want to take the money and run. He's only losing like 30k in expected value as well, which is only 10%.

When i watched the show they finally do give you pretty close to the real probability with only 2 cases left. At least on the shows i watched. Like if you were down to 100,000 and a $1,000 case the offer was like 49,975 or something, very close to expected value. So if he had got one of the two smaller cases he would of prob of been offered almost 500k. 40% increase in money for a 33% chance of getting crushed.

 

Originally Posted by mattg1983

Lets say you have 300k life money. A poker tournament with a 300k buyin is announced and you think you have a 25% roi. Go for it?

of course not, if the 305k was a lot of money to him he should of took it obviously, but we have no idea what his financial situation is (unless they mentioned it on the show idk), if he has a networth over a million I can definetely see going for it.

 

Originally Posted by mattg1983

Lets say you have 300k life money. A poker tournament with a 300k buyin is announced and you think you have a 25% roi. Go for it?

Sell 200% and then dip to New Zealand.

pretty sure people do that because its a once in a life time opportunity to get on a game show with a chance to win a million dollars. most don't go on expecting to go all the way, but they have a mindset of winning >75k and anything less is just being able to pay a few bills.

sure itd be nice to pay off some credit card bills, buy a new car, whatever they really need that would cost under 10k, but for most of these people 100k would be a life changer. they could prob pay of most if not all of their house or something and be sitting great. paying off a few bills wouldn't change their life at all, just make a few months easier for them.

 

Originally Posted by SpankyHamm

You need the banker's offer to be within 80% of the pure expected value (sum of all remaining cases / # of remaining cases). Once you get to that point, you then start factoring in "real world, life changing" numbers.

If you have 3 cases ($1,000,000, $200,000 and $100), your expected offer should be $400,033. But if you get an offer of $320k, you have to think about taking it even though you are giving up $80k in expected value.

You also get into the whole "Let's Make a Deal" scenario. In LMAD, you pick one of 3 boxes. One is the grand prize, one is a medium prize and one is a zonk. You make your pick (Box A), and the host (who knows which each box contains) shows you Box C with the medium prize. There are now 2 boxes, grand prize and zonk. He then gives you the option to change your pick. You should always change your pick. Why?

When you made your first selection, you had a 1 in 3 chance of getting the grand prize. Now with the opportunity to switch, you have a 1 in 2 chance of getting the grand prize. The odds are only 33% that your box contained the grand prize. The odds are 50% that the other box contained the grand prize.

Instead of 3 boxes, how about 100 boxes. One with a million dollars, 99 with nothing. You make a pick. The "host" then eliminates 98 boxes showing you that those 98 boxes had nothing in them. The odds that you picked the right one initially was only 1%. The odds if you switch your pick are 50%.

In the DOND scenario above you accept a less than even expectation number because the odds of you actually having picked the top prize was 1 in 26 to start with. The odds that one of the other 2 cases having that top prize is 1 in 3. Odds say that you don't have the top prize. And if you do get to only 2 cases, the LMAD rule applies - you switch it.

are you somehow saying what would happen in a combined DOND and LMAD game? In LMAD the odds are 2/3 that you get the top prize when you switch. In DOND, there isn't anything like the LMAD knowledge advanage where you can get a higher percentage by switching.

why would the odds go down to 50% if it was already at 99% it was in the other 99 boxes?

 

Originally Posted by SevenCostanza

In DOND, there isn't anything like the LMAD knowledge advanage where you can get a higher percentage by switching.

Because in the LMAD hypothetical, we are given a piece of information. Namely, that there is a goat and not a car in one of the remaining boxes. In the DOND scenario, we are given no information about the contents of any of the remaining boxes. So the same kind of logic that applies to the Monty Hall Problem does not apply here.

 

Originally Posted by warden

so:

probability of the $1M being in the case you picked: 1/26
probability of the $1M being in case A (still up there): 1/3
probability of the $1M being in case B (still up there): 1/3

probability that the $1M is evidently in no case because those numbers don't add up to 1: 23/78

as sevenconstanza explained above: LMAD logic doesn't apply. and even if it did, you would use those weighted probabilities to figure out whether to accept the offer or not; you wouldn't take "less than expectation."

if you take less than expectation, it's because you're risk averse and/or you're recognizing that the "value/utility/some other made up concept that works" you get out of the larger sum of money is not proportionally greater than the value/utility you get out of the lesser sum of money.

Or I could have just read through the rest of the thread. What pottz said.

I remember here in Australia once a lady got down to the last two cases 100k and 200k. The bank offered her 130k or something like that and the host was even pushing for her not to accept it was clear they wanted her to risk it and for that we got 2 weeks of advertisements of how someone finallly risked it and won the major prize