[LVpokerdealer]

[unemployable]

only 50 to 1?

Guy tried hard to light a g note on fire and failed hard.

[Willywoo]

This was posted in another thread. Is there a story behind it or just someone who posted their ticket on the internet? Nice bet regardless and by nice, I mean a great result.

[LVpokerdealer]

My friend put it on her facebook...he was playing 2-5nl in our poker room I guess and was letting people take pics of it...heard he had 6 figures on Giants ML also

[BillMueller OT President]

 

Originally Posted by unemployable

only 50 to 1?

Guy tried hard to light a g note on fire and failed hard.

my sentiments exactly

[kmc28]

the fuck ever

[JPitt09 Royals Fan, lol]

why would it only be 50-1?

[dolphin13 OT Vice MVP]

Makes no sense. Thought it was 300-1.

I'm convinced all these betting slips are fake, even if they arent

[XXEDPXX]

if you've got a grand to burn betting on that then fifty grand isnt that much anyway. thats my pessimistic way of looking at it.

50-1 doesnt even sound that good anyway Edited By: XXEDPXX Feb 6th, 2012 at 07:07 AM

[TMLMS13]

how often is a safety the first points of a game? Seems pretty simple to calculate.

And given safetys are somewhat random, the likelihood isnt going to change much based on teams playing

[wild_ride]

Amazing that you work in a casino and you still such a square.

Let me help you a bit:
- the line for not having a safety the WHOLE game was -1500 ish in pinny, that means you could expect a safety in a superbowl around 1 time every 14-15 games.
- this game (a low scoring game) had around 7 scoring plays, so lets say a game is expected to have 10 scoring plays
- safety happening in a game and then being exactly the first score of the game is muuuuuuuuch bigger than 50 to 1

Therefore this betting slip doesnt deserve its own thread and even less by someone working everyday just by the sportsbook

This rant was brought to you by someone who had a bigger bet than this guy on a safety not happening albeit at much better odds

[dolphin13 OT Vice MVP]

 

Originally Posted by TMLMS13

how often is a safety the first points of a game? Seems pretty simple to calculate.

And given safetys are somewhat random, the likelihood isnt going to change much based on teams playing

Meh not true. Lots of variables go in. QBs like Brady and Manning are far less likely to be responsible for a safety than a Blaine Gabbert and mark Sanchez.

And a d line like the giants is more likely to get a safety than a new England defense. With these two QBs, getting a safety was pretty unlikely.

[Ozzie]

reminds me of that bud light sweepstakes commercial where you have to call the first play of the 4th quarter and one guy says fake punt Edited By: Ozzie Feb 6th, 2012 at 04:05 PM

[poumi554]

Safety first scoring play for either team was paying 67-1 so taking it at 50-1 for one team is just fucken retarded!

[sanzard]

I was looking at betting lines yesterday on Bovada and saw the safety option for both teams...Thought about throwing 5 bucks on 60/1 odds but obv didn't. Meh.

[Garrr]

friend won this at 125 to 1. bet $50

[TMLMS13]

 

Originally Posted by dolphin13

Meh not true. Lots of variables go in. QBs like Brady and Manning are far less likely to be responsible for a safety than a Blaine Gabbert and mark Sanchez.

And a d line like the giants is more likely to get a safety than a new England defense. With these two QBs, getting a safety was pretty unlikely.

Did you look up their safety stats?

They are so rare that you can't know which players or teams are more or less likely to give up or get a safety. You have treat them as random. A great defense can go years without getting one and a terrible QB can go a career without giving one up.

[dolphin13 OT Vice MVP]

Sometimes, and I know this is gonna be a huuuuuuuge shocker, you can't judge something by stats. You have to go with the eye test, a gut feeling, intuition. An experienced quarterback is gonna be less likely to take a safety. A dominant dline is gonna be more likely to get one.

If you had to bet 100 on which QB will take a safety first, you gonna take Blaine Gabbert, assuming he starts every game or Tom Brady.

Just like the ame when Mangold was out, Sanchez was more likely to give up a safety than if Mangold was playing.

Another example. Big Ben is much more likely to get sacked in the end zone cuz the fucker thinks he can shake three guys off him on every play

And FWIW, this season a safety happened one in every 12.2 games (regular season)

[XXEDPXX]

 

Originally Posted by Garrr

friend won this at 125 to 1. bet $50

im guessing his was for either team

im dumb but heres how i come to my answer. safety every 12 games roughly. so i take 12 times 10. 10 is the average number of scoring plays in a game. 120-1. The GMen have to get the safety though. It cant be either team. In my head that doubles it to 240-1. throughout that theres a few variables that move it slightly but but its still somewhere around 240-1. not sure at all how accurate the 10 is. heard somebody itt say it earlier and sounded like they were just throwing out a ballpark guess but im not sure Edited By: XXEDPXX Feb 6th, 2012 at 08:37 AM

[dolphin13 OT Vice MVP]

Actually it was almost exactly four scores per team per game so 8.2 total scores per game. 2.5 TDs per game per team and 1.6 fgs per game per team


In 2010 there were 12 safeties in 320 games so 1 in every 26.6 games and scoring was a little flatter at 8 scores per game

In 2009 there were 14 safeties in 320 games so 1 in ever 22.8 games and scoring was flatter still at 7.9 scores per game


The three year average gives you a safety once in every 20.4 games and an average of 8 scores per game so the chances of a safety on that first score is 163-1


Dude got hosed Edited By: dolphin13 Feb 6th, 2012 at 08:59 AM

[XXEDPXX]

maybe its more specific and you'd want to plug in the scoring plays per game averages for both teams specifically and not the league averages. i'd think that would raise it

[dolphin13 OT Vice MVP]

Damn you. nE was 5.5 and NYG was 4.5

The giants had two safeties this year while NE had none


Bottom line. Dude got hosed 50-1 is atrocious. Edited By: dolphin13 Feb 6th, 2012 at 09:05 AM

[Hughes4]

I dont see how you say "dude got hosed" when it's clear that "dude is a dolt"

[littleze]

how much did he lose?

but seriously that is a serious baller/degen bet right there

[TMLMS13]

 

Originally Posted by dolphin13

Sometimes, and I know this is gonna be a huuuuuuuge shocker, you can't judge something by stats. You have to go with the eye test, a gut feeling, intuition. An experienced quarterback is gonna be less likely to take a safety. A dominant dline is gonna be more likely to get one.

If you had to bet 100 on which QB will take a safety first, you gonna take Blaine Gabbert, assuming he starts every game or Tom Brady.

Just like the ame when Mangold was out, Sanchez was more likely to give up a safety than if Mangold was playing.

Another example. Big Ben is much more likely to get sacked in the end zone cuz the fucker thinks he can shake three guys off him on every play

And FWIW, this season a safety happened one in every 12.2 games (regular season)

true if I HAD to bet picking one team. If I was a serious sports better I would not pick a team, unless getting better than double odds, I don't like taking long shots unless I know I am getting a good deal.

Tho I might do some stuff for the lolz like a $0.01 on 16-game parlay

[Jaybone2315 Professional Couch Ruiner]

Whoever bet that, clearly doesnt give a fuck about $1000.

Probably a multi millionaire

[Xmas32]

 

Originally Posted by littleze

how much did he lose?

but seriously that is a serious baller/degen bet right there

He didn't lose anything. He won 50k.

EDIT..unless being leveled Edited By: Xmas32 Feb 6th, 2012 at 08:42 PM

[rayspizza]

 

Originally Posted by Xmas32

He didn't lose anything. He won 50k.

EDIT..unless being leveled

[Hallettcopta]

 

Originally Posted by Xmas32

He didn't lose anything. He won 50k.

EDIT..unless being leveled

if you haven't ever heard that saying/been asked that, you've never played poker

[Stockage]

stupid guy. went of at 100/1 at the old hilton. mbfn tho.