Below 10k today, doesn't seem any positive indicators, and September is typically a bad month on Wall Street. Is 8k possible?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...NewsCollection
http://www.pocketfives.com/f13/10k-t...3/#post4830313

Dow Falls to 7-Week Low


By JONATHAN CHENG And KRISTINA PETERSON

Stocks stumbled below the 10000 mark, settling at a fresh seven-week low amid continued concerns about the pace of the U.S. economic recovery.
The Industrial Average erased earlier gains to finish down 74.25 points, or 0.74%, at 9985.81, its first finish below the psychologically important level since July 6, and the fifth such close south of 10000 this year.
Since July 6, the blue-chip index added as many as 955 points, peaking on August 9 before tumbling to Thursday's close.
The declines came amid weak volumes, with just over 3.8 billion shares changing hands in New York Stock Exchange volume, far below this year's daily average of 5.1 billion shares.
The market reversed an early climb after the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that manufacturing activity in its district had stalled. The disappointing report wiped out a boost from an unexpectedly large drop in jobless claims.
"Everything's been driven by worsening economic news," said Dorsey Farr, a partner at Atlanta-based investment advisory firm French Wolf Farr, tallying up a week with disappointing housing, durable-goods and jobs numbers. "There are renewed concerns over a double dip, and that's taken hope out of the equity markets."
Market watchers settled in to wait for further guidance when the Federal Reserve meets in Jackson Hole, Wyo., beginning Friday.
"Investors would like to hear more on possibly what policy tools the Fed will employ if there's a shock or a dramatic slowdown," said Judy McDonald Moses, partner and portfolio manager, Evercore Wealth Management. "Inflation expectations have gotten very low and I think that is likely on the lower end of the Fed's comfort zone and they would like to see inflationary expectations higher. One way to do that would be to do another round of quantitative easing."
The Dow's drop was led by Cisco Systems, which fell 2.4%. Also weighing on the measure were Intel, which declined 1.6%, International Business Machines, which fell 2%, and Wal-Mart Stores, dropping 1.1%.

Bulls are finding it hard to hold the upper hand, despite some hope on the labor front and Boeing plans to double employees at a parts factory in northern China. Stocks are still beset by economic uncertainty, as made clear by the interest in technical market indicators such as the Hindenburg Omen. Paul Vigna, Mike Reid and Steve Russolillo discuss.

</div>Aircraft maker Boeing helped keep the fall in check, rising 0.9% after saying it plans to double the number of employees at its parts factory in northern China to keep up with demand, according to state media. Home Depot joined Boeing as the only gainers among the Dow's 30 components
Hewlett-Packard finished slightly lower after losing a bid for data-storage company 3PAR, which accepted an increased acquisition offer from Dell. H-P was down 0.1%, while 3PAR shed 2.7% and Dell slipped 0.3%.
More

• MarketBeat: Markets Look to Jackson Hole Confab, In Vain?
• Jobless Claims Decline
• Heard: Yielding to Bernanke's Call
• More: Real Time Economics | MarketBeat

The Standard Poor's 500-share index edged down 0.77% to 1047.22, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.07% to 2118.69.
The dollar and the yen were under pressure due to speculation that Japan and the U.S. might reveal plans for more monetary easing at the central bankers' symposium. Investors will be closely focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's keynote speech on Friday.
"I don't think he'll move off the idea that he has further ammunition and will use it if the economy moves south," said Duncan Richardson, chief equity investment officer at Eaton Vance. "We're either going to have a worse economy that needs more stimulus and gets it, or a better economy that won't need it."
In U.S. economic data, the Kansas City Fed's manufacturing index, which measures productivity, fell to 0 this month from 14 in July. The employment index turned to negative territory, echoing other factory reports showing the sector is slowing.
Still, some seemed to take the news in stride.
"Given the economic downturn we went through, it's not surprising to see the recovery dramatically slower than what we're expecting or what we're used to," said Malcolm Polley, president and chief investment officer of Stewart Capital Advisors. He said the emerging slowdown in manufacturing does in fact align with the current business cycle.

More encouragingly, initial jobless claims declined by 31,000 to 473,000, more than the 10,000 drop predicted by economists. However, new claims for the previous week were revised upward and the four-week moving average rose to the highest level since November 2009.Among stocks in focus, Hain Celestial Group rose 5.8% after the organic-food company's fiscal fourth-quarter profit surged on improved margins. For the new year, Hain projected earnings above analysts' estimates.
Guess tumbled 11%, even after reporting a 12% rise in second-quarter profit and rising North American wholesale and Asian revenues. The apparel retailer forecast third-quarter earnings in line with analysts' estimates and only affirmed its targets for the year.
Commodity prices moved higher, with oil futures rising above $73 a barrel as the market continued to look past record-high U.S. oil stockpiles. Gold futures declined. Demand for Treasurys edged up, pushing yield on the 10-year note down to 2.49%.
Write to Kristina Peterson at kristina.peterson@dowjones.com

The current stat is there's a 40% chance of a double dip now. That's higher than previous estimates. Gentlemen, place your bets. A 60/40 is no big deal on stars.

I'd be less surprised by Dow going to 15k than 7k. We are printing too much money, if we keep devaluing the dollar AND Dow gets that low we are in bad shape.

Don't you actually have to have a recovery to have a double dip?

 

Originally Posted by ginwilly

I'd be less surprised by Dow going to 15k than 7k. We are printing too much money, if we keep devaluing the dollar AND Dow gets that low we are in bad shape.

Don't you actually have to have a recovery to have a double dip?

I mean last nov. didn't the Dow drop to like 7800's or somthing, and it got up to near 11k....not saying that a recovery but i'm pretty sure thats enough for a double dip

Mega bear

Buy gold.

should i go load up on bread, bottled water, and jane??? All my money (virtually) is in the market, poker is worse than ever, so I need the markets to go up not down, FML

But the gov. owns mortgages now! How can that be a bad idea?

Here is for hoping. I'm starting a 401k in the near future, so I'm hopefully the DOW tanks right away and I can snatch yo people up

Wall Street has just now begun to realize that many companies that are showing big profit numbers are doing so as a result of every measure imaginable except growth. The stimulus has had a limited effect, the census workers are no longer needed so are joining the ranks of the unemployed again along with many returning military personnel. Now..........they worry about where the easy money is going to come from.

Corporate America is beginning to realize the pickle they've created for themselves by shipping so many of the jobs THEY NEED to grow their bottom lines, overseas. If Americans are afraid to consume, and emerging economies don't have the buying power Americans have, then companies will collectively shrink as a whole.

Everyone on Wall Street is waiting for some magic recovery but no one wants to take the necessary first steps. They can blame Obama, taxes, regulation, lack of credit or whatever else they choose but the fact is that in the absence of an economic driver (like the invention of the internet or Y2K and the billions spent in preparation) there appears to be nothing meaningful on the horizon.

Dow 8,000 is now a very real possibility over the course of the next year in my view. I see no upside potential in the current economic and political climate. If Republicans win the Senate as they hope to in November ya think Obama's just gonna say "aw shit" and knuckle under. I 'm guessing not. Please explain how we're not doomed going forward?

 

Originally Posted by kidrockin

I bought a new Ford F-150 and returned to the dealer yesterday because I couldn't get the radio to work.
The salesman explained that the radio was voice activated.
'Nelson,' the salesman said to the radio. The radio replied, 'Ricky or Willie?' 'Willie!' he continued and 'On The Road Again' came from the speakers. Then he said, 'Ray Charles!', and in an instant 'GeorgiaOn My Mind' replaced Willie Nelson.
I drove away happy, and for the next few days, every time I'd say, 'Beethoven,' I'd get beautiful classical music, and if I said, 'Beatles,' I'd get one of their awesome songs.
Yesterday, some guy ran a red light and nearly creamed my new truck, but I swerved in time to avoid him.
I yelled, 'Ass Hole!' Immediately the radio responded with, "Ladies and gentlemen, The President of The United States.
damn I love this truck...

 

Originally Posted by ginwilly

I respect your opinion as much as anyone's on P5s when it comes to this. What is the projected "bottom"? or is it too painful to talk about, or are we already there?

This is probably the first time I've agreed with Leet8 on being a mega-bear. I've been bullish for a long time, and that is gone. I am currently so bearish that I wish I had moved my 401k to cash before tomorrow's GDP number comes out. I guess that means, too painful to talk about (but I'm still gonna, lol)

When this retracement started, I was looking at 1060, and then last wednesday (settlement/expiration of VIX) and some of the large trades that revolved around it moved my target to 1010. Then we ran into a huge triangle pattern and broke down below that with no support underneath. If GDP is less than 1.4% tomorrow, it could get terrifyingly bad, imo.

Add to that, we're going into September
Add to that Bernanke's bag of tricks is pretty empty at this point
Add to that all the Hindenburg Omen stuff
Add to that private business is looking at incurring a tax increase 4 months from now
Add to that we've built a steep downward channel that we're about centerline in (with bottom trendline at ~970 right now and lower every day)
Add to that all of the TERRIBLE numbers we've been getting lately
Add to that an administration and congress that would be admitting we weren't "recovering" to administer any more large quantitative easing.
Add to that there is way too much uncertainty for the S&P to be trading w/ a PE of 19.23 when it has a median of 15.67

Over the last couple of weeks, I started increasing hedging positions and have now moved to where I'm primarily shorting the market in my trading account.

Then again, come 9:30 EST time tomorrow, the dow could be up 150 - lol.

 

Originally Posted by cdmalgee

This is probably the first time I've agreed with Leet8 on being a mega-bear. I've been bullish for a long time, and that is gone. I am currently so bearish that I wish I had moved my 401k to cash before tomorrow's GDP number comes out. I guess that means, too painful to talk about (but I'm still gonna, lol)

When this retracement started, I was looking at 1060, and then last wednesday (settlement/expiration of VIX) and some of the large trades that revolved around it moved my target to 1010. Then we ran into a huge triangle pattern and broke down below that with no support underneath. If GDP is less than 1.4% tomorrow, it could get terrifyingly bad, imo.

Add to that, we're going into September
Add to that Bernanke's bag of tricks is pretty empty at this point
Add to that all the Hindenburg Omen stuff
Add to that private business is looking at incurring a tax increase 4 months from now
Add to that we've built a steep downward channel that we're about centerline in (with bottom trendline at ~970 right now and lower every day)
Add to that all of the TERRIBLE numbers we've been getting lately
Add to that an administration and congress that would be admitting we weren't "recovering" to administer any more large quantitative easing.
Add to that there is way too much uncertainty for the S&P to be trading w/ a PE of 19.23 when it has a median of 15.67

Over the last couple of weeks, I started increasing hedging positions and have now moved to where I'm primarily shorting the market in my trading account.

Then again, come 9:30 EST time tomorrow, the dow could be up 150 - lol.

Damn it, NOW were going to go up. Thanks! Lolz. ;)

I wish I could keep all those reasons plus another 30 on the tip of my tongue every time someone asks WHY I think were going down. I'm much better at condensig the info in one big puzzle that spits out a conclusion to me than explaining it all the time. I always leave some good ones out explaining.
---------

Funny dude, my father in law actually left us a vm tonight saying to sell everything lollll. He knows absolutely nothing about the markets but his brother told him so He had to panic haha. I married into a hilarious family. He has never said anything before, ever. Pretty funny since my retirement funds have been in cash so long waiting I wish we would just get on with this already. I had to explain to him once again what I DO for a living. Sigh.
Always a good sign when regular noobs are ready to panic.

I wouldn't panic until we slip below 9100 butttttttt then again, why wait to panic when you can just be efficient and smart. Dow 10k is just a stupid number people cling to because it's purdy. There's no basis for us hanging on to this garbage retrace. It just takes awhile for common sense to catch up some times. Eventually fundamentals take over. ...Smoke and mirrors ftw potus! J/k.

I'm in agreement that the markets will either go up huge b/c the negative numbers are built in, or go down huge b/c the bears have spooked the avg. investor.

Gold could continue to move higher based on technicals or it could be in for a major correction b/c there is a gold bubble and no inflation coming any time soon.

Just remember, you heard it here first.

 

Originally Posted by jeppg1111

so what exactly did we hear?? U dont seem to clear to me. i think the down Jones may jump to 12k next week. something is gonna go whack and just soar straight up, like my poker games bout to do, bit of a recession there too

lol - you heard exactly what i hear every day on the business news. One group of experts saying that there is no double dip in the cards and we will have a very slow but choppy recovery. Another group of experts saying that we're DOOMED and we are really in a continued recession / depression.

One thing i do know for sure is that there are a lot of people out there who will never put money in the stock market again b/c they got burned and are skeptical of the whole process. Nice job by the big hitters of scaring the fish out of the game.