k its late and i prob could make the absolute math behind this a lot more clear if i wasnt suffering from insomnia due to a high dose of Cytoxin, but here is my paste from another forum that i thought id share.

see i think the false hidden propaganda here is that the vikes didnt deserve to win due to their errors.... but didnt then NO make equally the same (albiet smaller but equally acumulative amount of errors to be engaged in a tie game with 5 min to go?

a smarter look into it would be able to decipher that as equally horrifying as the fumbles were, so were the extra 200+ yards that they were able to put up at the equal fault of the saints, making the turnovers a wash(because what goes unnoticed is that the saints made equally bad plays to allow the vikes to have the game tied. this goes hidden because it wasn't a "fumble" or INT, it was a slower process going unnoticed by the natural human brain to not include their smaller mistakes which in turn are no different overall mistakes than the vikings more visual fumbles that are pointed out by the brain).

When you take the last 5 minutes + overtime where there were basically 2-3 completely inept(yet hard to make under pressure, they are human too) calls that decided the outcome. It is a disservice to ones own intelligence to only point out certain errors and not include the factual evidence that they also made up those same errors with equally amounts of good plays to have the game even, thus making the previous events (which were evenly called by the refs)...irrelevant.

so if 28=28, no matter how one got there, it still is 0 - 0 with the previous hands(plays) leading up the tie, pointless as far the eventual outcome would be. After that ~5 minute mark, the saints were given at least 2 calls that redone again would most likely have never happened under less human pressure for the men in charge to be making the call at the time of the eliteness of the game in front of them. No it wasn't rigged, it was simple human error under the pressure of the situation given to human men under said extreme pressure who actually were trying to make the correct calls, and failed.

The vikings in reality got a very very raw deal that were not replaced back to them, that the saints did get (see: no pass interference, and by following the rules on a 4th down in a non goalline situation, they did not make the 1st down that led to the winning score, and in turn would of lost possession hence given a 0% chance to score THAT possession, on TWO separate occasions) and hence the actual mathematical outcome of the game is not determined by "well we shouldn't of fumbled so many times", but in reality by the failure of the people in charge of the calls at hand. In reality under correct officiating the vikings had a substantial better chance to win the game had the game not been decided by the poor choices by the refs at the end. No the refs couldn't help that 3-5 plays were literally HALF an inch to 3 inches of judgment, but well after the game was decided and those plays pict apart, it is clear to most not influenced or invested by either side's internal motivation, and by many even WITH a 'rooting interest'(hence ego=self being unable to even depict their own judgement towards the game in many human's natural conscious) that those calls were wrong.

It is easy and a given for most , even on both sides of the outcome, to blameshift the vikings inept ability to hang on to the ball for 55 minutes of the game, as the true reason for the loss. this is inaccurate if played out by the simple logic and math regarding the game leading up to that point. Truth is, the vik's prob should be in the SB, and those refs prob should be getting some form of penalty, for them actually being the deciding factor of the game at the end. The game leading up to that point, in reality, should be thrown out. making the actual outcome of the game a sad reality of human nature of the refs, not the more obvious and false assumption that the viks 'didnt deserve to win due to what we preceve as "colossal" mistakes.

thanks to this thread I have deciphered what tl: dr means

Did you type this out, use an online translator to turn it into Spanish, use an online translator to turn the Spanish into French, use an online translator to turn the French into Pig Latin, turn that into Japanese, then Swahili, then finally back into English?

again, maybe the audience at hand at a poker OT forum isnt the place for a philosophical discussion, but i figured id test the minds of the people here on this forum for future reference regarding actual thought provoking threads. tis possible that i ask to much , i am aware.

in the end this thread is to provoke the ego=self discussion. which can be explained deeper in this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5d0vtFja9GE

 

Originally Posted by Buchsbaumy

again, maybe the audience at hand at a poker OT forum isnt the place for a philosophical discussion, but i figured id test the minds of the people here on this forum for future reference regarding actual thought provoking threads. tis possible that i ask to much , i am aware.

in the end this thread is to provoke the ego=self discussion. which can be explained deeper in this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5d0vtFja9GE

If you're trying to be thought provoking, how about you learn how to use paragraphs. That post is a fucking mess.

the reality is the better team lost because they shot themselves in the foot throughout the game. They should not have turned the ball over so much and then the game would have never been in the hands of the refs. Also the 12 men in the huddle error was really stupid and it would have been nice to get a shot at a 51 yard field goal ftw.

It was a team loss with many mistakes made throughout the game. If you take away 2 or 3 of those turnovers its not even close. The only way the saints beat the colts is if the colts screw themselves like the vikes did otherwise gg saints.

OK im bored so...

FTR I didnt bet on the game and as long as the colts made the superbowl would be happy with either matchup, so I dont think Im very biased here...

As far as the refereeing is concerned, I think they did a decent job... If im being critical, it didn't look like there was a PI on the pass the 85 in OT that was a huge play for them, but the cameras didnt give the best angles, there was clearly contact, but it easily could've been uncatchable. One thing that I saw that I haven't seen brought up anywhere, was the same "piledrive" or "lift hit" called when a saints player hit Favre earlier in the game wasnt called against Brees in OT (or possibly late in the 4th, I cant remember) that would have been an extra 15 yards that imo should've been added.

I think they got the right call on the 4th and 1 conversion, and the coaching decision to go for it is simple, Im not sure what goaline rule you're referring to. It's simple say the ball was on the 40 yardline, they figure they convert more than 50% of the time and get the ball on the 38 with 1st and 10 more often than giving the ball to the vikings on their side of the field 1st and 10, maybe I didnt explain the math great, but ez decision to go for it.

As for the perception that the vikings lost the game due to turnovers, and the Saints didn't make the same errors, the saints didn't really make the same kind of errors; they had 3 more punts than the vikings (therefore just got stopped on offense more). And the vikings made errors in more critical spots. The fumble at the end of the 1st half was a joke, they had 3 points locked up and possibly 7, then give the ball back the saints to run out the half... terrible. Then at the end of the game, they have 1st and 10 from the 30 yard line with 45 seconds left and 2 timeouts and end up throwing a pick... wtf.

Cliff notes:

-vikings blew a lot of opportunities to win

-refs shouldnt be penalized for close, debatable calls, and overall did a good job

this is exactly the false perception of ego that I'm trying to point out. not that you or anyone else has a "bad ego problem" do not read into it that way(30 secs of that youtube video explains it), but that its too easy for the ego to see what it wants to see instead of the reality of why the outcome was what it was. It is factually mathematically false to say that favre lost the game by the INT, at least using the physics behind the reality of the situation given to our eyes/brains on what we are easily led by our minds/ego to believe.

and in reality i hated the way brett handled himself before the season, or at least I did until I realized more recently that all he was struggling was the simple EV of to return or not to return. After the outcome of the season, it is easy to see his struggle mentally with his choice to come back, even at the annoyance of thousands of people. In the end he was right. he knew that the chances were that he would be able to most likely get where he did and have a reasonable chance to prove that(which he did) that he did in fact have a legitimate reason to be on the fence for as long as he was. I went from being annoyed to having full understanding of his struggle prior to the season.

although the deep look into that whole ordeal could be a totally different topic for another night.

The fumble at the end of the 1st half was a joke, they had 3 points locked up and possibly 7

Ya Peterson closed his arms before Favre gave him the ball maybe favre would have had gotten a better result on that play had he just shoved the ball up Petersons ass as he was running by

I really hope they hire someone to teach Peterson the basic fundamentals of carrying a football or trade his ass for Ray Rice

 

Originally Posted by cloudyspirits

I really hope they hire someone to teach Peterson the basic fundamentals of carrying a football or trade his ass for Ray Rice

Ray Rice is absolutely untradeable. If I was running the Ravens and you offered me that trade I would laugh in your face right now. AP is a physical freak with a running game to match, but the one hole in his game is the one single hole that you cannot have and still hope to be successful in the league.

 

Originally Posted by cloudyspirits

the reality is the better team lost because they shot themselves in the foot throughout the game. They should not have turned the ball over so much and then the game would have never been in the hands of the refs.

again, this thinking holds you back from the real equation of the game. Its too easy for one to state what you said, and not realize that over the full game itself, the saints made as many bad plays that equaled to the ammount of turnovers that the vikings made. its just easier for the brain to use the turnovers as a blameshift. its nearly an internal natural and normal thought process to come to this conclusion, but in reality it is indead a false thinking.

maybe this will help a little

sum of errors

if T= turnovers = 100 for the sake of the equation
and undectected errors the brain naturally disregards = X = 10

Vikings = (T*5)+ (~X*20)= 700
Saints = (T*1) + (~X*60) = 700

the focus being that the human mind disregards the "(~X*60)" part more than it wishes to believe. the saints are equally at fault for allowing the game to be deadlocked for their errors which also equal the same errors the vikings made. this is proven by the fact of the score before the game got changed due to the human errors of the men having to make hard choices and in the end a couple destructive choices to alter the absolute outcome.

now obviously that equation is based on the end result before the "bad" calls, but nontheless the 28-28 score makes the 700=700 just as valid.

and sadly i need to go to bed. I look foward to enjoying the posts that will discuss any reaction to the point of the thread in the morning. although i got a feeling many will be simple "favre blew it" reaction. but even if i get a few intellectual thoughts on this , it will be fun to discuss. gn gl to those playing tonight.

 

Originally Posted by TheSilentBob

Just watched Tom Jackson ask the question, "So how many times do the Colts have to turn the ball over for the Saints to win this game?" "7" was the response. People see both sides of it. If anything, the NFL was rooting for Favre and were predicting that match-up to be one of the most watches SBs ever. N.O vs Jets would have screwed 'em the worst.

Really? Pretty sure a New York team making the championship game of a sports league will always have ratings just because of the sheer number of people there, even if it's the B team...

and the whole country is rooting for the Saints, I highly doubt the NFL is upset by it at all... Plus when people from Nawlins go to Miami to party, the city must love it. They certainly party harder and therefore spend more money than people from Minnesota...

Amazing how many games people have said the Saints have won this year due to the other team making mistakes and turning the ball over. I know this is a mind-boggling concept, but *gasp* perhaps it's because the Saints defense forces *gasp* turnovers?

No, Favre DID blow it (well, Peterson gets some credit too, they BOTH blew it).

Your equation fails to take into account the quality of either team, and by doing so it assumes the teams are equal. Clearly, however, The Vikings are the more talented team at the majority of impact spots.

Without taking that into consideration, it's impossible to determine which team made more mistakes. Watch this example of the flaw in your thinking:

A Pee-Wee football team plays the '72 Dolphins. Up until the last 5 minutes of play, the score was tied 7-7. The Dolphins had actually fumbled the ball 17 times and thrown 5 interceptions. The Pee-Wee team had no turnovers, but simply couldn't move the ball.

Now, are you willing to concede that the Pee-Wee team, who played entirely over their head to tie the game with 5:00 left, made the same number of mistakes as the turnover ridden super bowl champions? Of course you're not, because that would make you a fucking idiot.

The concept of a mistake is only relative to what one is expected to do. If I'm a 99% free throw shooter, and I miss a free throw at the end of a big game, its considered a HUGE mistake. If I'm a 1% free throw shooter, and i miss the same shot, it's no longer considered a mistake, but rather an "expected outcome".

So, in the end, Favre's 2 picks are MUCH larger mistakes, especially considering he only threw 7 the whole season prior. Therefore we can safely conclude that Favre blew it...even without a fancy formula.