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  1. Skyroller Skyroller is offline

    Charlotte, NC
    United States

    Posts: 2,417
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 2:54am)

    Now I know this has obviously been discussed before, but I am kinda curious as to OT's thought on Vegas lines. There seem to be two camps:

    1) Vegas sets the line nearest the best "predicted" value of what the outcome will be. (If Lakers are -3, then on average the Lakers would win by around 3 by Vegas reckoning). This includes the Vegas "trap" bet. The numbers shift to maintain Vegas' "edge" or account for new information.

    2) Vegas sets the line at a number where they think the action will be split 50/50, so they can collect the juice. The number shifts solely to try and maintain this balance.

    I've seen plenty of people call the other group retards, so i'm kinda curious to see who in here subscribes to which belief. For the record, I'm of the opinion that choice 1 would make Vegas far more money (though with increased variance), so that is most likely how lines are set.
  2. tommpat2000 tommpat2000 is offline Chief Asshat

    Saint Paul, MN
    United States

    Posts: 13,498
    Joined: Apr 06

    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 2:55am) in reply to Skyroller

    there is no camp or thought

    only facts and faggots
  3. snaggs snaggs is online now

    Lancaster, PA
    United States

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    Joined: Dec 06

    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 2:57am) in reply to tommpat2000

    casinos hate variance it's #2
     
  4. tek85 tek85 is offline

    Posts: 1,185
    Joined: Sep 05

    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 2:58am) in reply to tommpat2000

     
    Originally Posted by tommpat2000 View Post

    there is no camp or thought

    only facts and faggots

    There's a tear rolling down my cheek...that shit is mad deep
  5. Skyroller Skyroller is offline

    Charlotte, NC
    United States

    Posts: 2,417
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 2:59am) in reply to snaggs

     
    Originally Posted by snaggs View Post

    casinos hate variance it's #2

    Explain why casinos would much rather see you play blackjack then poker tho. Poker = no variance.
    Edited By: Skyroller Mar 1st, 2011 at 02:59 AM
    Thread Starter
  6. BadAllergies BadAllergies is offline

    IL
    United States

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    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 3:03am) in reply to Skyroller

    2
  7. donkiman donkiman is offline

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    Joined: Aug 10

    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 3:13am) in reply to Skyroller

     
    Originally Posted by Skyroller View Post

    Explain why casinos would much rather see you play blackjack then poker tho. Poker = no variance.

    Because most players dont stop playing blackjack until they bust. So the casino wins when the player experiences the negative side of variance and very often wins when the player briefly experiences the possitive side of variance.

    And there doesn't seem to be that big of a distinction between the spreads that both camps would set.
    Edited By: donkiman Mar 1st, 2011 at 03:15 AM
     
  8. locustbend locustbend is offline

    Perrysburg, OH
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    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 3:18am) in reply to donkiman

    it is actually a combination of both camps...this way it keeps both camps on their toes
  9. monteaz monteaz is offline

    Phoenix, AZ
    United States

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    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 5:07am) in reply to locustbend

    its 2 and its not even close.
  10. threeven threeven is offline

    Tucson, AZ
    United States

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    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 5:11am) in reply to Skyroller

     
    Originally Posted by Skyroller View Post

    Explain why casinos would much rather see you play blackjack then poker tho. Poker = no variance.


    There really isn't much varience for the casino in BJ considering the volume of bets and how awful most people are at it. They simply make more $/hr/person at BJ (I'm guessing)
    2
  11. marinersheep marinersheep is offline This is stupid.

    Seattle, WA
    United States

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    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 5:16am) in reply to threeven

    Bookies set a line that they think will make them money.
     
  12. Niceguy Niceguy is offline I will find you.

    NV
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    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 5:26am) in reply to marinersheep

    Number 1.

    Vegas sets a line that gives them the best chance to collect not only the juice, but a majority of all bets total. Lines are rarely set to get 50/50 action unless you're using some neighborhood bookie who needs the two sides to offset each other or else he'd go broke.
  13. gotzballz gotzballz is offline

    Kansas City, MO
    United States

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    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 6:42am) in reply to Niceguy

    It is a business with a very large amount of capital. There are other factors involved that the vast majority of people probably dont have the ability to comprehend. With a lot of capital comes a lot of power involved with the risk they can take vs. the risk most people can take(max bets are also in place).
     
  14. LVpokerdealer LVpokerdealer is offline

    Las Vegas, NV
    United States

    Posts: 12,098
    Joined: Apr 06

    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 6:51am) in reply to gotzballz

    There is no such thing as a "trap" line
  15. Hughes4 Hughes4 is offline

    Scranton, PA
    United States

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    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 6:53am) in reply to LVpokerdealer

    There is actually only one camp for the normal kids. And then there's the camp down the road, where my retarded cousin had to go.
  16. curiousgeorge curiousgeorge is offline baby duck hat

    Las Vegas, NV
    United States

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    Mar 1st, 2011 (3/1/2011 11:23am) in reply to Skyroller

     
    Originally Posted by Skyroller View Post

    Explain why casinos would much rather see you play blackjack then poker tho. Poker = no variance.

    omg my head hurts
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