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Halloween 2012 East Coast Storm

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  1. VTShocker VTShocker is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 8:07am)

    Not sure how many people are weather nerds but some weather models are currently hinting at Tropical Storm/Hurricane Sandy coming up the east coast and phasing with a front that will be moving through. This will be around Halloween timeframe. Some of the numbers the models are spitting out are hard to fathom. It may not happen but if it does happen as modeled it'll be stronger than the perfect storm that that sorry ass movie was based on. Places in western PA and NE Ohio could be looking at an early season snowfall with amounts in the feet.

    How bad was everyone hit last year with the Halloween storm. I'm near Baltimore and it wasn't bad but an hour west where my brother lives he had limbs coming down left and right due to the heavy wet snow and trees still having leaves on them. I know PA got rocked and was without power.
  2. whitealroker whitealroker is offline looking for action in Vegas...

    Springfield, PA
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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 10:08am) in reply to VTShocker

    Best part is when John Rielly is like "this is going to be hard on my little boy", I laughed.
  3. McBain74 McBain74 is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 1:35pm) in reply to whitealroker

     
  4. TMLMS13 TMLMS13 is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 9:32pm) in reply to McBain74

    that is like a week away, even the "experts" will probably change their mind
  5. MadProfesor MadProfesor is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 9:43pm) in reply to McBain74

     
    Originally Posted by McBain74 View Post

  6. Zeppelin Zeppelin is offline world traveler

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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 9:46pm) in reply to MadProfesor

    Enough of a weather nerd to know the story about the boat isn't the perfect storm but a storm that led up to the perfect storm. New to weather, found a 24 part introduction to meteorology series from a UCLA professor. He talked about that storm in lecture one and will get back to it later in the class. I'm on lecture 12. Cool stuff. 1/2 way through a weather book too and have another one but on break for a couple weeks from weather most likely. Wouldn't be able to pass a test now but will hopefully have a good grasp of the basics soon
    Edited By: Zeppelin Oct 24th, 2012 at 09:50 PM
  7. sean614 sean614 is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 9:50pm) in reply to Zeppelin

    Ill be at the sixers game...BOOOOOYA
  8. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 10:06pm) in reply to sean614

  9. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 10:08pm) in reply to EyeKnows

  10. Shaaarrrp Shaaarrrp is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 10:12pm) in reply to EyeKnows

    Sandy has been upgraded to a hurricane as it nears the southern coast of Jamaica. Landfall over Jamaica will occur over the next couple hours. Hurricane Sandy is expected to move in a general northward motion over the next two days, which will track it over Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and then the Bahamas. Forecast models are in good agreement in the short to mid-term, and they all project the center of Sandy will remain east of the FL peninsula. However, the storms wind field is expected to expand and it is possible that eastern FL will experience some tropical storm force winds as Sandy tracks offshore. Because of this possibility, the NHC has issued a TROPICAL STORM WATCH for southern and eastern FL.

    Models are divergent with regard to Sandys long term track late this weekend into early next week. This is due to differences in their handling of a trough currently located over the Mountain West, which will be moving into the Northeast late this weekend. Some models project this trough will impart a NW turn and cause Sandy to track into New England, while others project the storm will bypass the trough and remain offshore. Regardless, hostile atmospheric conditions and cooler waters should prevent Sandy from restrengthening into a hurricane as it gains latitude off the East Coast. However, interaction with the aforementioned trough would lead to extratropical transition, which could cause some post-tropical intensification as the storm merges with the trough. The current NHC forecast track lies between the model extremes and keeps Sandy well offshore into early next week. The long term track forecast is more uncertain than usual due to the large model differences.
    Edited By: Shaaarrrp Oct 24th, 2012 at 10:13 PM
     
  11. VTShocker VTShocker is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 11:44pm) in reply to Shaaarrrp

    Most meteorologists know at this point that it in fact will hit the east coast somewhere between the Delmarva and New York area but don't wanna hit the panic button at this time because of past mistakes of missed storms. This one really has nowhere to go but an east coast hit. I'm not a met by any means... i just follow big storms. A lot of mets are looking at this and getting very nervous though
    Thread Starter
  12. smheilbron smheilbron is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 11:46pm) in reply to VTShocker

    i live on the ocean. these are always fun
  13. SpankyHamm SpankyHamm is offline

    Altamonte Springs, FL
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    Oct 24th, 2012 (10/24/2012 11:57pm) in reply to smheilbron

    Now is not the time to panic.
     
  14. Mr. Blonde Mr. Blonde is offline Supreme Moderator

    Georgetown, DE
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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 12:05am) in reply to SpankyHamm

    last year shelves were bare at Walmart in anticipation of a devastating hurricane....it turned out to be a dud. People around here panic as soon as the hear something. My kids have fog delays. wtf is a fog delay??? They mention snow down here and everyone bumrushes walmart and snatches up all the pasta and canned goods like idiots. Where i grew up, you needed a minimum of 5 inches of snow before they called school off....here they just have snow in the forecast and give my kids off. Fucking weirdos.

    I'll be in Philly next week tho...not sweating it
     
  15. SpankyHamm SpankyHamm is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 12:16am) in reply to Mr. Blonde

    It's the pussification of America.
     
  16. twopairsofones twopairsofones is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 12:41am) in reply to SpankyHamm

     

    [FONT=arial]October 24, 2012...12PM. Hurricane Sandy just upgraded from a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea, could eventually become a significant storm for our area beginning on Sunday / Monday. Way too early for specifics, as the track is still mostly an off-shore one. But if things were to come together perfectly as some models are indicating, this could be a destructive hybrid of a storm with tropical characteristics. (Nor'easter + Tropical Storm = not good) [/FONT]

    Got a good laugh out of that
    Edited By: twopairsofones Oct 25th, 2012 at 12:42 AM
    Reason: from newjerseyweather.com
  17. whitealroker whitealroker is offline looking for action in Vegas...

    Springfield, PA
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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 5:00pm) in reply to twopairsofones

    Looks like its heading straight for LBI.....the funny part is we are getting paid 1,775,000 for our house there TOMMORROW....they are tearing it down anyway so maybe storm will help but storm like this could sink that whole island.
  18. kellykip kellykip is offline The Chosen One

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 5:03pm) in reply to whitealroker

     
    Originally Posted by whitealroker View Post

    Best part is when John Rielly is like "this is going to be hard on my little boy", I laughed.

    LOL
  19. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 5:20pm) in reply to kellykip

    love spaghetti models.



  20. SpankyHamm SpankyHamm is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 5:38pm) in reply to EyeKnows

    OK - now might be the time to panic. DelMar up through Nova Scotia might be looking at serious power outages.
     
  21. Shaaarrrp Shaaarrrp is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 6:22pm) in reply to Shaaarrrp

    My brother tracks and forecasts hurricane damage for a living

    http://welcome.icat.com/icat-static/...ctivestorm.pdf

    Forecast: Sandy strengthened overnight and is now a category 2 hurricane as it approaches the southern Bahamas. The storm is expected to move in a general northward direction through the Bahamas over the next 24 hours. An increase in vertical wind shear and interaction with a nearby upper-level low should lead to gradual weakening as Sandy gains latitude over the next several days. However, the storm’s wind field is expected to expand, so its impacts will become more widespread. While Sandy should stay well offshore of the FL peninsula, its expansive wind field will lead to tropical storm force wind gusts along the coast. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING remains in effect for coastal FL from Ocean Reef to Flagler Beach.

    Models have continued to trend toward a solution where Sandy merges with an eastwardly moving arctic cold front that is currently located over the central U.S. and will be approaching the Northeast late this weekend. As Sandy moves N offshore of the Eastern Seaboard, the approaching front will begin to attract the storm toward to the NW late in the forecast period. As this occurs, Sandy will begin undergoing extratropical transition, which occurs when a tropical cyclone’s primary energy source changes from internal warm-core convection to baroclinic instability caused by large scale pressure gradients. Once this occurs, Sandy will take on similar characteristics to a Nor’easter as much of its energy is transferred to the eastwardly moving arctic cold front. This will result in a very broad area being impacted by strong winds, heavy rains, and high surf. The event will also coincide with a full moon, which will increase the storm surge threat. Models and the NHC project Sandy will have borderline tropical storm/hurricane force winds when it impacts the Northeast early next week. However, these winds will be more widespread than usual due to the extratropical nature of this storm. Models remain divergent with regard to where the storm’s primary energy will make landfall, with some calling for an earlier landfall near the DelMarVa peninsula while others delay landfall until further up the coast into New England. The official NHC forecast lies between the model extremes.
    Edited By: Shaaarrrp Oct 25th, 2012 at 06:26 PM
     
  22. VTShocker VTShocker is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 8:28pm) in reply to Shaaarrrp

    this is gonna be a storm for the record books... how old people talk about the storm of 1938 is how we'll be describing this to our grandkids
    Thread Starter
  23. Pker4Dummies Pker4Dummies is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 9:02pm) in reply to VTShocker

    Most of the models I have seen have it making landfall right above my house.
  24. Mr323 Mr323 is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 9:06pm) in reply to Pker4Dummies

    Rut row
  25. sean614 sean614 is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 9:10pm) in reply to Mr323

    hopefully it gets me outta work and to a bar for some Hurricane Day Drinking. Love goign to bars during big storms.
  26. snaggs snaggs is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 9:19pm) in reply to EyeKnows

     
    Originally Posted by EyeKnows View Post

    so it's going to hit somewhere between Toronto and Africa, good to know.
     
  27. payems payems is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 9:33pm) in reply to snaggs

    Hope it isn't as devastating to the northeast as Irene was...
  28. Pker4Dummies Pker4Dummies is offline

    Toms River, NJ
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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 9:38pm) in reply to payems

    I know. My entire town was underwater for what seemed like a week. Hope it isnt worse than that
  29. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 9:49pm) in reply to Pker4Dummies

    wow, that spaghetti model isn't the one I posted, fox makes the url the same when they update the pic, the first pic I posted is the same as the last one, weird.
  30. dolphin13 dolphin13 is offline OT Vice MVP

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    Oct 25th, 2012 (10/25/2012 9:54pm) in reply to EyeKnows

    I keep thinking of a Spagett model with his big head as the hurricane.

    In other news Fox has dubbed this event Frankenstorm
    Edited By: dolphin13 Oct 25th, 2012 at 09:54 PM
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