pm bobfuton, aka king of hedging

So you can win 700 on a 6 teamer, so guessing you have like 40-50 on that, unless you did a bunch of big ml faves..... So, I would put 300-350 on Dallas, you have a great shot of middling here, and you have to take advantage of the +100 juice you are getting, I wouldn't buy it down to 2.5 and pay -150, ur taking all the hedging value away..... Personally, I let it ride, but understand hedging here

I hate hedging....




Unless I can get a 4 pt middle with no juice. Also think the -150 just to get a live "3" might be juicy. Think I would split the hedge between the two of those choices. Good luck and congrats!

Good problem indeed. I'd go very light on the hedge, don't try to middle.

 

Originally Posted by MeJahAndOmaha

I typically hate hedging too but I'm in roll building mode early in the season so I'm definitely hedging this one. That 1 point to get -2.5 is expensive as hell. I should probably just take -3.5 @ +100 but I think it should be a tight game and I'll be bumming if DAL wins by a field goal.

Good problem to have tho!

Typically 50 cents for a full point is steep, but the live "3" is a different animal. Most books won't let you buy on or off 3 because it's such a strong number in the pros. Last year, I went through the previous 5 seasons and 15% of the games ended up falling 3. It's also the reason the books are moving the money when a game is listed as 3 or 3 1/2 instead of moving the line. Personally, I think the 50 cents is worth getting the live 3, but like I said I'd still split it up, maybe 70/30 with the 3 1/2 getting the 70.


And LOL at Mr323 not trying to middle this game. Getting a live 7 and a live 3 is a wet dream in the NFL.

Edit: This year of the 47 games that have been completed 11 have fallen 3. 23.40%. Small sample I know, but it is what it is. The books hate the number 3.

I would try and middle the shit out of this game including buying down to -2.5. You're increasing your house edge quite a bit obviously, but you're getting 4 huge key numbers that it's worth the risk IMO. In fact, if you don't try and middle this game, you should probably quit gambling alltogether. Situations like this are pretty few and far between.

 

Originally Posted by MeJahAndOmaha

I typically hate hedging too but I'm in roll building mode early in the season so I'm definitely hedging this one. That 1 point to get -2.5 is expensive as hell. I should probably just take -3.5 @ +100 but I think it should be a tight game and I'll be bumming if DAL wins by a field goal.

Good problem to have tho!

I wouldn't plan on building a roll if I was betting parlays, but I would plan on it even less if I was hedging those parlays

if you are going to hedge, do this:

You can take DAL @ -3.5 +100 for guaranteed $1k profit and if DAL wins by 4-7 you make $3k

 

Originally Posted by TheWacoKidd

if you are going to hedge, do this:

You can take DAL @ -3.5 +100 for guaranteed $1k profit and if DAL wins by 4-7 you make $3k

God dammit . Quickly losing faith in TWK reading skills. Parlay is only worth $700. His numbers in the OP were for those who can't do math.

 

Originally Posted by runninbad

Typically 50 cents for a full point is steep, but the live "3" is a different animal. Most books won't let you buy on or off 3 because it's such a strong number in the pros. Last year, I went through the previous 5 seasons and 15% of the games ended up falling 3. It's also the reason the books are moving the money when a game is listed as 3 or 3 1/2 instead of moving the line. Personally, I think the 50 cents is worth getting the live 3, but like I said I'd still split it up, maybe 70/30 with the 3 1/2 getting the 70.

Edit: This year of the 47 games that have been completed 11 have fallen 3. 23.40%. Small sample I know, but it is what it is. The books hate the number 3.

Reading your replies it sounds like you know this stuff like the back of your hand. Thanks for droppin a lil wisdom.

I decided to split 50/50. So from a hedge of $350 I took -3.5 +100 for $175 and took -2.5 -148 for $175.

Max profit ~ $1,000
Min profit ~ $300

Can't be mad at that from a $35 wager

 

Originally Posted by gray31

I wouldn't plan on building a roll if I was betting parlays, but I would plan on it even less if I was hedging those parlays

I'm 100% noob as you can tell from reading this thread, but its a strategy that I enjoy and its been pretty successful for me in the past and already a little bit this year.

Basically what I do is make all my picks against the spread and then I throw out 10-20 parlays ranging from 4-8 plays each, sometimes buying/selling points so that one loss doesn't always kill a huge chunk of my plays. I also try not to have any single game or O/U in any more than 50% of the parlays for the week.

I didn't play week 1.

I hit 1 of 12 in week 2

I hit 2 of 20 in week 3 (including the one I'm hedging), but was really close to having a huge week. If NYJ and ARI both covered (either/or, seperate parlays) I woulda hit 7/20 and its not like either of those games were longs shots. Freaking Cromartie really screwed me.

So ya its high variance and "roll building mode" is probably not an accurate way to describe the strategy, but its a lot of fun for a degenerate NFL Redzone junkie like myself.

 

Originally Posted by runninbad

God dammit . Quickly losing faith in TWK reading skills. Parlay is only worth $700. His numbers in the OP were for those who can't do math.

 

Originally Posted by TheWacoKidd

wut?

I simply copy and pasted that option from the OP. I know the #s aren't right

You're both right. Its cuz in the OP I did the math based on a $2k payout to make the numbers nice and round, but then acknowledged that the actual payout was ~ $700.

Thanks for the feedback urrybody. Hate myself for having to root for Dallas tonight, but what's a degen supposed to do?

 

Originally Posted by lvkid7

Hedging is not for the weak and spineless. It's simply for a lousy sports bettor. Next time instead of making a six teamer including the Monday night game, simply make a five teamer not including the Monday night game.

I made this bet way back on 9/22. The fact that I bought ~2.5 points shows that I liked WAS in this game but not so much that I wanted them @ +5.

When I'm spitting out 10-20 parlays each week the decision to hedge a Sunday night or Monday night game is based on 2 factors: how well I did with the other bets and whether or not there's a good middling opportunity like I had with this game.

If NYJ and/or ARI had covered, I woulda gone 7/20 and pulled in between $5k-$8k in profit on Sunday... and wouldn't have even considered hedging tonight's game.

welp. That field goal sucks. Way to get 6 tries from < 10 and goal and net negative yardage, Dallas. Buncha clownshoe rookie backups in der.

 

Originally Posted by quietwinner

dallas wins by 2, doh!

Dallas has singlehandedly cost me more money than every other NFL team combined. I still remember the Romo mishandled field goal hold that cost me a huge parlay $20 -> $3,200. If its even romotely possible for Dallas or Romo to screw me, they'll get it done. 6 field goals in the first half? Sure no problem. 6 tries for a TD from < 10 yards out? No yards gained.

HUD Cowgirls.

hah, i have a few teams that have cost me a lot of money. Pats are prob the worst in the NFL(obv had them this week, way to throw 4 picks you faggot brady(. The MLB, the Giants have cost me heaps this year, along with betting against baltimore and oakland when they played playoff teams.

kick a spite fg one time? plz?

No regrets. Played it correctly and the stars aligned to get Dallas a win by < 2.5 points.

The offense in this game was so horrible I would have never watched the full game if I didn't have a sweat.

Gotta say gg Romo tbh. Probably the only player on the offense that deserved a W tonight.