Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita are offering a special pick 6 wager today with a $1 minimum that features 3 stakes races from each track that are part of the Sunshine Millions stakes races today. It is sponsored by the new HBO series "Luck", and they are running a free contest with a 50k prize pool where you see who can win the most money making a win/place/show bet on a single horse in all 6 of those races. I believe the deadline to enter is 4pm ET.

http://itsh.bo/wNxIIV

I've had a look thru both cards and see some decent value in many of the Gulfstream races, with a few vulnerable favorites that can be bet against. The Santa Anita races have smaller fields and tougher favorites, but still might be worth a shot. I'll be back later this afternoon to share some thoughts, would love to hear if anyone else has opinions. GLGLGLGLGL

Luck Pick 6

Leg 1 - GP Race 8 - Although I think the 4 or 5 are the most likely winners, the idea of the contest is to select the highest aggregate payouts when adding up the win place and show amounts. Because of this, my contest selection is going to be 6 AskButIwontTell. Throwing out his last race given the turf was not firm and it was his first race in Florida this winter and he may not have been acclimated yet. He has several buried figures good enough to win the race and if he gets back to form he can take this at longer odds.

Leg 2 - SA Race 4 - The 4 Compari should absolutely romp in this race. But he will likely do it at 1 to 2 odds, so this will not get us any contest points. My play here is on 7 Red Defense and I'm hoping that his 2nd and 3rd place money will add up to more than the $7 you will probably see (if you are lucky) on Compari.

Leg 3 - GP Race 9 - Going shopping for value again and taking another stand against a favorite in 5 Little Mike. Mike goes to the lead in every race, period. He has not had much success at this distance, although the turf does seem to be favoring front runners. I like the breeding and ability of the 1 Slews Answer to get 1st run at him and run him down late, winning at decent odds. I also considered 3 Bad Debt here, but like the 1 a little better.

Leg 4 - SA Race 5 - These are younger horses in a pretty evenly matched race. I'm going to go off the workout tab and clocker reports I read that say the 2 Bluegrass Reward is training much better and is definitely improved off his last race. He should be a decent price in this field, although I doubt there will be an overwhelming favorite here. I also considered 5 Holladay Road and 3 Spud Spivens, but I think the best possible value is found in the 2

Leg 5 - GP Race 10 - Going to bet this one with my heart instead of my head, but I love 6 Mucho Macho Man. He let me down in the derby but bounced back with an encouraging win off some rest at the end of last year and should be back in form. I could not fault anyone for selecting 3 Adios Charlie or 7 Ron The Greek

Leg 6 - SA Race 6 - The 8 California Nectar really seems to be flying under the radar on this one, has never been a mile but perfect breeding for it and competitive figures at shorter distances. Taking a bit of a risk that he can get the extra distance, but at 10-1 the price is right to try it. Also considered the 1 Secret Cove, who is at even longer odds after a try at a race that was much to long for him. He should be better in this spot, but the clocker report did not like his last workout. Was that a trainer trying to keep a horse under wraps to cash a big ticket at long odds or a horse that is tired out? Not sure there. The 9 Halo Dolly will probably go off as the favorite and should definitely be respected.

Will also spread all these mentioned above in various pick 3/pick 4 wagers.

These were posted for entertainment purposes only, I will probably lose! GL to anyone else making their own plays.

Yes, Gulfstream and Santa Anita are both available. I'm not sure if they are taking the Luck Pick 6 or not, since it is an unusual wager that takes 3 races from 2 different tracks as one bet.

Is the premier tomorrow just going to be the pilot reaired? Loved the pilot episode.

 

Originally Posted by Z-Fresh

Is the premier tomorrow just going to be the pilot reaired? Loved the pilot episode.

yes i believe so unfortunately. ep 2 avail on hbo go after premier

ew 184points only for that 50k challenge. Also,

Damnit, I didn't know episode 1 of Luck is just a repeat of the pilot.

Life likely to imitate art today, as strangely enough on the day the next episode airs on HBO, there is a huge 2 day carry over on the pick 6 bet at Santa Anita. This is a fairly rare occurrence in real life, despite it happening in the first episode of the show.

Under normal conditions, the pool would likely get close to 2 million today, but I'm not sure how the super bowl might affect it. They have an earlier post time (11am PST) to try to get ppl to still come to the track, but if ppl are wrapped up getting ready for super bowl parties, then there may be much less action than normal.

On the other side, you have the potentially raised awareness of this pick 6 due to success of the HBO series so far, so who knows. To me, the pick 6 is like lighting money on fire, but I will probably put together an approx $100 ticket and take a stab at it, thoughts to come later.

Awful scenes...but wtf do you expect when the main characters name is ACE

 

Originally Posted by TheWacoKidd

lol good point. but I mean, considering Michael Mann makes the show, I expected much better.

how hard is it to not make the poker scenes laughable to anyone who knows an inkling about poker? like, they didn't have ONE guy on set that was like "ok, this is bad"

I'm kinda glad they're absurd and lol-worthy. Nice bit of unintended comic relief.

So far, it's been fairly arduous to follow the minutiae of Luck so it was nice to get a good laugh for a few scenes.

Tread - you remember a trainer named Gasper Moschera?

 

Originally Posted by kellykip

Tread - you remember a trainer named Gasper Moschera?

I do, trained mostly on the NYRA circuit right?

 

Originally Posted by Tread

Race 3 - 2 will be a deserving favorite, but I will probably also use the 6 or 8 in this leg, make a game time decision or use all three of them if you can afford it.

Race 4 - This maiden race is probably the toughest on the card. I am going to use 5 8 and 9 here and pray I get past this leg. 3 is an interesting longshot, but cant afford to include him on a pick6 ticket

Race 5 - This looks like a two horse race between 5 and 8, the clocker report loves the way they have been working out and their number power is as good as anyone elses in the race.

Race 6 - the 1 horse might surprise a slightly higher odds making a return to grass where she is much better. I also greatly respect the 8 and 6 (in that order) and will need to choose between the two in order to make the ticket affordable. Prob going with the 8.

Race 7 - I can't beat the 1/5 favorite Game On Dude (the 3) here (with Luck actress/jockey Chantal Sutherland aboard). He looks incredible in the mornings and is head and shoulders above the rest on paper. Everyone in the world will have him on their ticket too, so there will be no massive payout, but with the carry over hitting this should still pay much more +EV than a straight up parlay would. If you want to get frisky, the 2 and 6 will be coming late, and a closer would be the only type of horse that has a shot if the 3 falls down for some reason.

Race 8 - Another maiden race and I have to go three deep here with the 14, 8, and 10 (in that order of pref).

This is almost assuredly a jinx post, but what the hell. My ticket is 4 for 4 so far, and we have beaten 3 favorites.

Race 3 - the 6 won and paid $16, the 2 got second and I gave out the exacta (I thankfully landed on the 6 instead of the 8)

Race 4 - got a very short price in 2/5 on the 5 horse after the 9 scratched. This will make the overall ticket not pay much, but better than losing. The 8 got 2nd but the exacta only paid $4

Race 5 - The 8 romped at 4-1 odds. 5 was there most of the way but faded in the stretched and finished out of the money

Race 6 - The 1 led them wire to wire, as I had hoped, but the public was pretty keen on her and bet her down to 5/2. Not what I was hoping for, but again, better than losing.

So what does all of this mean? It means that 3 Game On Dude is almost assured to lose the next race at 1 to 9 odds, because if I win I will have at worst a consolation 5 of 6 payout and be alive to 3 horses in the last race to possibly take a small share of the pot. Gonna guess more in the 1k range than 10k, but who knows.

EDIT - there ended up being 1.9mm in the pool

 

Originally Posted by playwithfire05

well what happened?

There are some things you just don't talk about in public.

Fun read......anytime you cash anything in the pick6 is a feat in itself.... wp. My buddy was talking about this promo a while back but I did not follow up. It is such a difficult bet but one that really gets the pulse going if you can "get to the dance" in the last leg. I remember vomiting in the smoking section after lighting up over and over again before the race at a local simulcast here in Sacramento a long time ago. Was live to two entries on this day and had a horse open up 8 lengths at the top of the lane in a 6 furlong sprint piloted by Roberto Gonzales at a very small Nor Cal track(Golden Gate Fields). I was yelling " don't fall down, don't fall down!!" Sure shit the mother ******..........jk! Went on to win for a small score for pick6 standards but it was fun as hell.

Been away from the game a long time now but I was pretty hardcore 10 years or so ago. Concentrated on the small Nor Cal tracks to dodge the big tracks and syndicates. As with anything you gotta do work and lots of it to even have a chance but it can be very rewarding. I was even lucky enough to pick off a "lone" ticket at Bay Meadows once.

Sheets(Eric Haber) is the man tho! Has some awesome Pick6 software that he designed and used with his syndicates in his day. It was very cool and systematic that utilized a weighting system on spread tickets. Which was something that I did as well but no where near as thorough and complete. I mainly focused on cycles and "spots" when I saw a play that might work.

But I agree with most tho that it is like lighting money on fire. A very slippery bet indeed.

Gglgl

Peace