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how can you figure out playoff probability?

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  1. LDM LDM is offline

    Gallatin, TN
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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:08pm)

    actually wondering if the turd in 9th place of the FFB league still has a mathematical chance of the playoffs given the teams in front of him that would need to lose. is there a way of plugging all the league teams into a spreadsheet to figure out? he basically needs to go 6-0, but not sure if that would matter since other teams ahead of him still play so one or the other is guaranteed a win.

    anyone?
  2. kmc28 kmc28 is offline

    Norman, OK
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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:09pm) in reply to LDM

    if he's in 9th place now, its almost 100% chance that he will not go 6-0 to finish the season and make the playoffs
  3. LDM LDM is offline

    Gallatin, TN
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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:10pm) in reply to kmc28

    i've said as much to him, but i'd love to prove it.
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  4. kmc28 kmc28 is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:13pm) in reply to LDM

    whats his pts/week average? that should prove all you really need to prove
  5. Ozzie Ozzie is offline

    Joliet, IL
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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:14pm) in reply to kmc28

    hes prolly in 9th for a reason...
  6. LDM LDM is offline

    Gallatin, TN
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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:16pm) in reply to Ozzie

    171.125 per game avg.

    178.5 is the league's per game avg.
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  7. kmc28 kmc28 is offline

    Norman, OK
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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:21pm) in reply to LDM

     
    Originally Posted by LDM View Post

    171.125 per game avg.

    178.5 is the league's per game avg.

    welp...
  8. LDM LDM is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:23pm) in reply to kmc28

    bottom 3 scorers are in 3rd, 4th, and 10th place.
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  9. Ozzie Ozzie is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:25pm) in reply to LDM

    if you actually wanna figure something out, you need to post his record, everyone else's record and how many teams make the playoffs. then the schedule and each teams avg pts per week.

    or go with 50/50
  10. LDM LDM is offline

    Gallatin, TN
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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:30pm) in reply to Ozzie

    i did all this and then hit some other button rather than "post".
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  11. kmc28 kmc28 is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:32pm) in reply to LDM

    imo just bet him that he won't make the playoffs and profit
  12. LDM LDM is offline

    Gallatin, TN
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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:42pm) in reply to kmc28

    Rankings:

    A 7-1
    B 5-3
    C 5-3
    D 5-3
    E 4-4
    F 4-4
    G 3-5
    H 3-5
    I 2-6
    J 2-6

    Schedules wk 9-14:
    A- D, G, C, J, B, H
    B- G, C, J, H, A, E
    C- J, B, A, E, I, F
    D- A, E, I, F, H, G
    E- E, D, G, C, J, B
    F- E, I, H, D, G, C
    G- B, A, E, I, F, D
    H- I, J, F, B, D, A
    I- H, F, D, G, C, J he does have about the easiest remaining schedule, C&D being 8th & 9th in scoring.
    J- C, H, B, A, E, I
    Edited By: LDM Nov 6th, 2011 at 05:50 PM
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  13. Ozzie Ozzie is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:45pm) in reply to LDM

    how many make playoffs?
  14. LDM LDM is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:48pm) in reply to Ozzie

    sorry. 4 and ties are broken by points so assume he wins all tie breakers.
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  15. Chrono Chrono is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 5:51pm) in reply to LDM

    rule of thumb. Once you lose 7 games you are basically done if half the teams in the league make the playoffs
     
  16. SevenCostanza SevenCostanza is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 7:27pm) in reply to Chrono

    my quick gut feeling looking at those rankings is that there is definitely a scenario where he could make the playoffs, mainly b/c there are a bunch of 5-3 teams and only one 7-1 team. i'll try to make a quick such scenario.

    A 7-1 0 7-7
    B 5-3 2 7-7
    C 5-3 2 7-7
    D 5-3 2 7-7
    E 4-4 3 7-7
    F 4-4 2 6-8
    G 3-5 3 6-8
    H 3-5 5 8-6
    I 2-6 6 8-6
    J 2-6 6 8-6

    Schedules wk 9-14: number of wins
    A- D, G, C, J, B, H 0
    B- G, C, J, H, A, E 2
    C- J, B, A, E, I, F 2
    D- A, E, I, F, H, G 2
    E- F, D, G, C, J, B 3
    F- E, I, H, D, G, C 2
    G- B, A, E, I, F, D 3
    H- I, J, F, B, D, A 5
    I- H, F, D, G, C, J 6
    J- C, H, B, A, E, I 6

    bold team loses to team at the beginning of it's row

    The more I think of it, the more it seems to me that it would be very rare for a 2-6 team to be mathematically eliminated for making the top 4. Basically would need a perfect storm of 4 teams that never lost except to each other in the first 8 games, and have a disproportionate number of games against each other later in the season.
  17. LDM LDM is offline

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    Nov 6th, 2011 (11/6/2011 7:38pm) in reply to SevenCostanza

    thanks
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